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It's easy to forget, but the Milwaukee Brewers made the postseason last year. Yup, the Brewers took advantage of the expanded playoff format to sneak in with a losing record as the worst seed in the National League. They didn't stick around for long, of course, instead losing in two games to the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers by a combined 7-2 score (that margin overstates how competitive those contests felt).

For much of the winter, the Brewers appeared content to run back the same group and hope for slightly better results. That changed only recently, with general manager David Stearns taking advantage of stalled markets for second baseman Kolten Wong and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Add in some other low-cost signings -- Brett Anderson, Travis Shaw, Brad Boxberger -- and this year's edition of the Brewers should be better.

Will the Brewers be good enough to again reach the playoffs, and this time, perhaps, win a game? Let's find out together. 

Win total projections, odds

  • 2021 Sportsline projection: 81-81
  • World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +5000
  • 2020 record: 29-31 (Lost in Wild Card Series to Dodgers)

Projected lineup

  1. Kolten Wong, 2B
  2. Lorenzo Cain, CF
  3. Christian Yelich, LF
  4. Keston Hiura, 1B
  5. Jackie Bradley Jr., RF
  6. Omar Narvaez, C
  7. Luis Urias, 3B
  8. Orlando Arcia, SS

Bench: C Manny Pina, 1B Daniel Vogelbach, OF Avisail Garcia, UTL Daniel Robertson

As noted above, the Brewers made several late-winter additions to their lineup, including Wong and Bradley Jr., who should give them a defensive boost. Elsewhere, Milwaukee will hope for better outings from Narvaez, Urias, and Garcia -- each an acquisition from last winter who fell flat in their debut years. Keep an eye on Vogelbach: he's out of options and presumably competing alongside Travis Shaw for a bench spot as a left-handed masher. Shaw offers more defensive versatility, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Brewers will prefer his stick.

Projected rotation

  1. RHP Brandon Woodruff
  2. RHP Corbin Burnes
  3. LHP Brett Anderson
  4. RHP Adrian Houser
  5. RHP Josh Lindblom

Bullpen: LHP Josh Hader, RHP Devin Williams, LHP Brent Suter, RHP Justin Topa

The Brewers didn't change much about their pitching staff. Anderson is back, and veteran reliever Brad Boxberger might make the bullpen. Otherwise, the most notable competition to watch this spring is whether or not Jordan Zimmermann can crack the roster. He'll turn 35 in May and he's had one competent season in his last five tries, so the odds seem very much against him.

Now, onto three pertinent topics about your 2021 Brewers.

1. Can Yelich bounce back?

For all intents and purposes, this is the most important question facing the Brewers and their competitive aspirations. Yelich, in his first run since fracturing his knee cap to end the 2019 season, hit .205/.356/.430 (111 OPS+) with 12 homers and four steals in 58 games. The on-base and isolated slugging percentages salvaged the line, but obviously the Brewers would prefer Yelich return to the form he showed in 2018-19, when he batted .327/.415/.631.

There is some reason to be encouraged by Yelich's underlying numbers. His average exit velocity was 94 mph, or the highest of his career. Additionally, his launch angle was a split between his 2019 mark and those of his past, and he showed a greater command over the strike zone. The catch is that Yelich's approach became so patient, so intent on working deep counts, that an uptick in his swing-and-miss resulted in a swollen strikeout rate. 

What does all of this mean, per se, heading forward? Well, clearly Yelich can still hit the ball hard. His ball-strike recognition appeared strong, too. That's a good foundation from which to build for any hitter.  The potential psychic effect from, again, being less than a year removed from a significant injury shouldn't be overlooked here; it's possible, and understandable, he had some lingering concerns that have since receded.

As such, our expectation is that Yelich will be better in 2021 than he was in 2020. That doesn't, necessarily, mean he'll return to his MVP form -- though it shouldn't come as a surprise if he does, either.

2. How does the rest of the outfield shake out?

So long as Yelich is healthy, he's going to be in the lineup most days. Manager Craig Counsell will have to split up playing time at the other two spots between three well-compensated vets: Cain, Bradley Jr., and Garcia. How might this play out?

Occam's razor suggests that Garcia will begin most games on the bench. He's a right-handed hitter, same as Cain, with a similar platoon gap. The difference is that Cain has been more productive against lefties and righties alike, giving him the leg up without even considering defensive value. Bradley Jr., conversely, is a lefty hitter who has historically struggled when he hasn't had the platoon advantage. That would seem to suggest that the path of least resistance involves platooning Bradley Jr. and Garcia.

This is all subject to change, obviously, and Counsell might deploy Garcia in a less stringent manner, especially if he's producing. However it works out, the Brewers appear to have more qualified outfield options than spots -- and that's a good thing.

3. Can improved defense lead to playoff berth?

It wasn't long ago the Brewers were known as the team most likely to flaunt defensive convention. That perception stemmed in part from their willingness to work Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas into the same infield. Heck, before adding Wong (and before the universal DH went kaput for the 2021 season), the Brewers had signaled a willingness to play Vogelbach at first base every day. 

There's still some room for defensive indifference -- it's anyone's guess how Hiura takes to the cold corner -- but the Brewers would appear to be in position to improve upon a unit that had the 10th-worst batting average on balls in play against last season. 

Wong is one of the top defensive second basemen going, blessed with arguably the best flip game in the majors. Bradley Jr., meanwhile, may as well be preprogrammed with the best routes to every ball hit in his direction. Factor in the cascading effects those two can have on the rest of the run prevention unit, as well as the hard-to-pin-down value of having an elite end-game bullpen, and there's a chance the Brewers are better than people expect based solely on the names on their roster.

At least one projection system supports the theory. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA has the Brewers pegged for a division-winning 89 wins. SportsLine (81) and ZiPS (79) are more modest in their appraisal. Even if the Brewers fall somewhere in the middle, they should be able to make a better show of it than last year's squad.