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The Pittsburgh Pirates look to bounce back from a cold spell on Thursday afternoon. Pittsburgh is 1-3 in the last four games, including back-to-back losses to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates and Brewers face off in the finale of a three-game set, with Pittsburgh hosting the game at PNC Park. Milwaukee is 12-7, while Pittsburgh is 8-10 to begin the 2022 season.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the -170 money-line favorite (risk $170 to win $100) for this 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 7.5 in the latest Pirates vs. Brewers odds. Before making any Brewers vs. Pirates picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it is off to a sizzling start to the 2022 season. It's on a 25-11 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks through three weeks, returning almost $1,100 for $100 players. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Brewers vs. Pirates, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Pirates vs. Brewers:

  • Brewers vs. Pirates money line: Brewers -170, Pirates +150
  • Brewers vs. Pirates over-under: 7.5 runs 
  • Brewers vs. Pirates run line: Brewers -1.5 (+100)
  • MIL: The Brewers are 7-4 on the road 
  • PIT: The Pirates are 4-4 at home

Why you should back the Brewers

Milwaukee is off to a positive start in 2022, including back-to-back wins to begin this series. In addition to its own strengths, Milwaukee can benefit from Pittsburgh's potential shortcomings. The Pirates are deploying a starting pitcher in Jose Quintana who has an unsightly 5.96 ERA since the start of the 2021 season. On offense, Pittsburgh has the fewest home runs (11) in the National League, with bottom-five marks in runs scored (66) and strikeout rate (24.8 percent). The Pirates are also soundly below-average in batting average (.231), on-base percentage (.303) and slugging percentage (.341). 

Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta is coming off a tremendous 2021 campaign, and the Brewers are also stout in the bullpen. The Brewers rank in the top three of the National League in wins above replacement from relievers, and Milwaukee's bullpen has a 3.25 ERA in 69.1 innings. The relief corps owns a strikeout rate of 9.87 per nine innings, and Milwaukee's relievers have a 48.1 percent ground ball rate.

Why you should back the Pirates

The Pirates have key potential advantages in certain areas. Pittsburgh owns an impressive 9.5 percent walk rate this season, and Milwaukee is below-average on offense. The Brewers rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored with 71, and Milwaukee has ugly figures in batting average (.207), on-base percentage (.281) and slugging percentage (.332) in 2022. 

Pittsburgh's bullpen is very strong, ranking in the top five of the NL in wins above replacement across 85.2 innings. Pirates relievers have nearly a strikeout per inning, and Pittsburgh also has a veteran starter on the hill. Quintana has been better this season with a 3.86 ERA in three starts thus far, and the former All-Star has a 3.84 ERA in his career. That includes a devastating arsenal against left-handed hitters, with southpaws posting a hideous .662 OPS against Quintana in his lengthy MLB career.

How to make Brewers vs. Pirates picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the run total, projecting 7.9 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Brewers vs. Pirates? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Brewers vs. Pirates you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.