The calendar has flipped over to March, yet still dozens of free agents remain unsigned with Opening Day four weeks away. At the moment nine of our top 50 free agents remain unsigned, including four of the top nine. There are still plenty of plenty of players available for any team that decides to upgrade its roster in March.
The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly one of the teams kicking around the idea of swooping in to sign a free agent, and they've reportedly had "dialogue" with Jake Arrieta. Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are still unsigned as well. On Thursday, MLB.com's Jon Morosi reported the Phillies very well could sign two free-agent starters at some point.
Sources: #Phillies have entertained possibility of signing *two* of the remaining free agent starters. While not likely to occur, the situation is financially plausible. At present, Philly has lowest payroll commitment of any @MLB team for 2018. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) March 1, 2018
Morosi also reports the Phillies have had recent contact with Lynn. As with Arrieta, the two sides aren't close to a deal, but the Phillies have reached out. I imagine they will -- or already have -- touched base with Cobb at some point as well.
The market is set up for teams to jump into free agency to get that last minute roster addition in the weeks before Opening Day, and the Phillies are uniquely positioned to capitalize on the market. Here are four reasons Philadelphia should splurge for two free-agent starters, not just one:
They have the money
The Phillies are a large market team with a relatively new ballpark and a relatively recent World Series win (plus another NL pennant), which pumped up revenue streams in subsequent years. Furthermore, the Phillies have lots of cheap young players on the roster. Here are their contract obligations over the next few years, via Cot's Baseball Contracts:
- 2018: $63.7 million
- 2019: $42.4 million
- 2020: $28.9 million
- 2021: $10.9 million
Most of those 2019-20 dollars are tied up in Carlos Santana and Odubel Herrera. The Phillies do have some notable players coming up on arbitration for the first time next year (Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff, Hector Neris) but even then their salaries will be well-below market value. Rhys Hoskins, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, and Nick Williams are all several years away from arbitration.
The Phillies have money to spend. The Santana signing this offseason proved it. The team has very few long-term financial commitments and gobs of young talent making peanuts. The Phillies are in position to sign free agents, retain their young players, and still have money left over to spend in the future. They're in a great place financially.
It would accelerate their rebuild
At the moment the projections at FanGraphs have the Phillies as a 74-88 team in 2018, eight games behind the second wild-card spot. PECOTA has them at 78-84 and seven games behind the second wild-card spot. Maybe that's not close enough to spend big on two free agents. But consider their projected rotation and their 2018 ZiPS projections:
- Aaron Nola: +4.3 WAR
- Vince Velasquez: +1.9 WAR
- Jerad Eickhoff: +1.8 WAR
- Nick Pivetta: +1.7 WAR
- Ben Lively: +0.9 WAR
ZiPS says Arrieta (+2.7 WAR), Cobb (+2.5 WAR), and Lynn (+2.1 WAR) would all be Philadelphia's second best starter behind Nola this season. Sign two of them, bump Pivetta and Lively back to Triple-A -- no team makes it through the season using only five starters, those guys will be back soon enough -- and the rotation is better and deeper.
The added wins by signing two free-agent starters gets the Phillies that much closer to a postseason spot not only this year, but next year as well. Incremental upgrades are still upgrades. Inch closer and suddenly you can see this team being, say, a Crawford breakout and a strong bounce-back season from Eickhoff from being in the wild-card race.
Next year's free-agent class isn't great
Doing anything in baseball comes with an opportunity cost, including signing a free agent. If the Phillies sign two free-agent starters this spring, that's two free-agent starters worth of money they won't be able to spend in the future. Like it or not, dollars are finite.
One argument against the Phillies spending now is that they're probably not ready to contend in 2018 -- FanGraphs and PECOTA projections certainly don't think so -- so why spend that money now, when they could spend it next winter on pitchers, who will better be able to help the in 2019? A valid argument, but these are the best starters scheduled to become free agents next winter:
Patrick Corbin
Gio Gonzalez
J.A. Happ
Dallas Keuchel
Drew Pomeranz
Chris Sale ($15 million), Madison Bumgarner ($12 million), Carlos Carrasco ($9 million) will all have their club options picked up, so they're not hitting the open market. Clayton Kershaw can opt out of his contract next offseason, though I have a hard time seeing him as anything other than a Dodger for life. If Kershaw opts out and the Los Angeles Dodgers don't go all out to re-sign him, I'd be worried about his back.
Passing on, say, Arrieta and Lynn now to sign guys like Keuchel and Pomeranz next year is worth considering, sure. Two problems with that though. One, we don't know those guys will actually become free agents. They might sign extensions between now and then. And two, we don't how desirable those guys will be as free agents next year. Guys get hurt, guys underperform. It happens, even to the best of 'em.
Point is Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn are available right now, potentially at a discount given where we are in the baseball calendar. They're healthy and they were effective last year, and the Phillies would be able to sign them and plug them into their rotation this season, and expect good things. We don't know what the free-agent market will look like next year. It's two quality pitchers now or the mystery box next offseason.
Bunch the draft pick penalties into one year
Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn all rejected the qualifying offer and are thus tied to draft pick compensation. The Phillies did not receive revenue sharing dollars last season nor did they pay luxury tax, so according to the new collective bargaining agreement, they have to forfeit their second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money to sign any qualified free agent.
The Phillies have already signed one qualified free agent: Santana. They gave up their second-round pick (42nd overall) to do that. Sign another qualified free agent, and they'd have to give up their third-rounder (79th overall). Sign one more after that, and they'd have to surrender their fourth-rounder (107th overall). The Phillies have the third overall pick in 2018 and they don't have to worry about losing that one. They're keeping it no matter what.
The goal here is bunching the draft pick penalties into one year. Give up your second-, third-, and fourth-round picks this year to sign Santana and two pitchers rather than give up your second-rounder year after year after year to add pieces. Do it all at once and draft penalties aren't as harsh because a third-rounder isn't as valuable as a second rounder, and a fourth-rounder isn't as valuable as a third-rounder.
Other teams have done this. The New York Yankees gave up three draft picks to sign CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett during the 2008-09 offseason, so come 2010, they had a full complement of picks. They did it again during the 2013-14 offseason to sign Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Chicago Cubs signed Jason Heyward and John Lackey in the same offseason to ease the draft-pick hit.
Given the compensation rules, forfeiting international bonus money actually hurts more than losing draft picks. Each team is given a set bonus pool for international spending each year -- it is a hard cap now, teams can't go over like they once did -- and given the market size, the Phillies are expected to have $4.75 million total this summer, the smallest allowed. Three qualified free agents at $500,000 a pop means they're down to $3.25 million internationally. It hurts, but you're also making the MLB roster better.
The Phillies have already taken the plunge this offseason and signed a qualified free agent in Santana. Once you do that, you might as well keep going and stack the draft pick penalties into one year, setting yourself up for a full draft next year.
Without a doubt, the Phillies have the money and payroll space to sign two free-agent starters right now. They wouldn't bring them over the luxury tax threshold nor would it put them in danger of going over the threshold in the future. The team has few payroll commitments going forward. They're close to a blank slate, financially.
The question for ownership and the front office is whether it is worth taking the plunge now, or waiting a year to see where the team stands. One thing to keep in mind: Talented young teams have a way of arriving quickly. The Cubs went from 73 wins in 2014 to 97 wins in 2015. The Pittsburgh Pirates went from 79 wins in 2012 to 94 wins in 2013. The Tampa Bay Rays went 66 wins in 2007 to 97 wins in 2008.
If you have lots of young talent, which the Phillies most certainly do, the rise to contention can happen much quicker than expected. With so many rebuilding teams in the National League, not a ton needs to go right for the Phillies to enter the wild-card race this year. Adding two free-agent starters right now could help the club get over the hump, and accelerate the rebuild.
