Matt Chapman on IL after hurting finger in weight room as Blue Jays enter favorable stretch on schedule

Prediction models currently give the Jays a 50/50 shot at making the playoffs

The Toronto Blue Jays will not have their starting third baseman when they begin a crucial stretch of the season Monday night. The Blue Jays placed Matt Chapman on the 10-day injured list with a right middle finger sprain, the team announced Monday afternoon. Utility man Ernie Clement was called up in a corresponding move.

Chapman exited Sunday's game with the injury and he has been dealing with a nagging finger issue since jamming it in the weight room a few weeks ago. He missed three games with the injury earlier this month. Chapman went for an MRI on Monday and the team has not yet announced how long he will be sidelined.

The 30-year-old Chapman has started 122 of Toronto's 131 games at third base this season. He came out of the gate very well, slashing .384/.465/.687 in April. Chapman has struggled since then though, hitting .211/.303/.360 in over 400 plate appearances since May 1. For the season, he owns a .248/.338/.431 line and 15 home runs.

Santiago Espinal started the nine games at third base Chapman did not start this season and could get the majority of the playing time at the hot corner during Chapman's absence, though recent call up Davis Schneider has played third base in the minors. Schneider is 16 for 37 (.432) with five homers since being called up on Aug. 4.

The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five games and they enter play Monday 2.5 games out of the third American League wild-card spot at 71-60. They are entering what is, on paper, a very favorable stretch of their schedule:

• Aug. 28-30: 3 games vs. Washington Nationals
• Sept. 1-3: 3 games at Colorado Rockies
• Sept. 4-6: 3 games at Oakland Athletics
• Sept. 8-10: 3 games vs. Kansas City Royals

The Nationals are no longer a pushover -- they are 16-7 in their last 23 games -- though the Rockies, Athletics, and Royals have the three worst records in baseball. Those three teams have a combined .326 winning percentage this season, which is a 109-loss pace in a 162-game schedule.

Any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game, but gosh, that's about as favorable as the schedule gets this time of year. The Blue Jays have nine games coming up against the three worst teams in baseball. Even with Chapman on the injured list, they will have no one to blame but themselves if they come out of the stretch no closer to a wild-card spot.

SportLine puts Toronto's postseason odds at 50.5%. FanGraphs is in the same range at 49.1%. During what we'll call the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era, the Blue Jays have reached the postseason twice (2020 and 2022), though they are 0-4 and have been outscored 25-12 in their four postseason games.