New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso entered Thursday with 51 home runs -- or, one shy of Aaron Judge's rookie record of 52, established back in 2017. The Mets have just four games remaining this season -- one against the Miami Marlins, then three versus the Atlanta Braves -- leaving Alonso with only a few more opportunities to tie or break Judge's record.

With the postseason no longer an option, Mets manager Mickey Callaway has evidently turned his attention to helping Alonso in his quest. Hence Callaway telling reporters prior to Thursday's game that he may bat Alonso leadoff this weekend to give him more chances to make history:

Give Callaway some credit for wanting to make sure Alonso is comfortable with batting leadoff before doing it, and for trying to support his player in pursuit of a personal accomplishment. At the same time, let's be clear: Moving Alonso to leadoff isn't likely to make a huge difference.

Alonso has spent most of the year deviating between the No. 2 through 4 spots in the order. The leadoff hitter is likely to get more plate appearances, but not to the extent you might think. For example, a few years ago Ben Lindbergh reported that the expected difference over the course of a full season between a leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter is 49 plate appearances. 

Moving up that far for a series might yield … maybe an extra plate appearance? Theoretically, that could make a difference. But, in all likelihood, Alonso won't be tying or breaking the record because he was moved up in the order -- he'll be tying or breaking it because he's had an outstanding rookie season and was permitted to play in the majors all year instead of being sent to Triple-A so the team could suppress his service time.

In a sense, then, what matters more to Alonso's pursuit of history is where he was batting for the season's first few games rather than the last few.