The Atlanta Braves will meet the New York Mets in the fifth and deciding game of their four-day series in a key National League East matchup on Thursday. The Braves (50-52), who are coming off a 2-1 loss to the Mets (54-46) on Wednesday, are 24-27 on the road this season. New York, which holds a four-game lead over the second-place Philadelphia Phillies and five over Atlanta, is 32-17 at home in 2021. The Mets have lost four of the last six games against the Braves.
First pitch is set for 12:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in New York. New York is priced at -140 (risk $140 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Braves vs. Mets odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Mets vs. Braves picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
This model, which simulates every pitch of every game 10,000 times, is a profitable 132-109 on top-rated money-line MLB picks through 17 weeks in the 2021 season. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.
- Braves vs. Mets money line: Atlanta +130, New York -140
- Braves vs. Mets run line: New York -1.5 (+140)
- Braves vs. Mets over-under: 8.5 runs
- ATL: The Braves are 6-3 in their last nine road games against a team with a winning record
- NYM: The under is 12-2 in the Mets' last 14 home games against a left-handed starter
Why you should back the Mets
New York is expected to start right-hander Taijuan Walker (7-4, 3.43 ERA). Walker has struggled in his last two starts, allowing a combined 11 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. His last win was an 8-3 triumph over the New York Yankees on July 3, allowing just two earned runs on two hits in 5 2/3 innings. He has faced Atlanta twice this year, getting a 13-2 win on May 29. In that game, he did not allow a run, while limiting the Braves to two hits in five innings.
First baseman Pete Alonso is among the Mets' offensive leaders and entered the series hot. On Monday, he had his nine-game hitting streak snapped in Game 1 of a doubleheader, but came back strong on Tuesday, going 2-for-5 with a double and an RBI. He has been productive in his career against Atlanta. In 37 games, he has six doubles, six homers and 23 RBIs. He has walked 18 times and has a .403 slugging percentage vs. the Braves.
Why you should back the Braves
Atlanta will send left-hander Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.30 ERA) to the mound. The veteran has pitched well of late, allowing three runs or fewer in his last nine appearances. Although he has received a no decision in each of his last two starts, he has won his last five decisions. In his last start on Saturday at Philadelphia, Smyly allowed just three hits and three walks in four innings. His last win came at Pittsburgh on July 7, when he held the Pirates to three earned runs on nine hits in five innings. He walked three and struck out four. For the year, he has walked 33, while striking out 77.
First baseman Freddie Freeman continues to be among the Braves' offensive leaders. He was 6-for-14 with a homer and three RBIs last weekend at Philadelphia, and is 4-for-13 (.308) this series against the Mets. For the season, he is batting .290 with 23 homers, 58 RBIs and 73 runs scored. In 15 games against the Mets in 2021, he is hitting .327 with a double, home run and three RBIs.
How to make Braves vs. Mets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, as the teams combine for 7.4 runs in the simulations. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Mets vs. Braves? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.