MLB Free Agent Rankings: Braves' Josh Donaldson, Cardinals' Marcell Ozuna climbing through the first month of the season
There is a new No. 1 free agent as well
Much has changed since we last power ranked the upcoming 2019-20 MLB free agents. Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts, last month's No. 1 free agent, took himself off the market with a six-year, $120 million extension that begins next season. I thought Bogaerts had a chance at $200 million as a free agent given his age (26), production, and position. He instead took the guaranteed $120 million. Can't say I blame him.
Taking the guaranteed money has been a common theme these last few weeks. Since the calendar flipped to 2019, a whopping 30 players have signed multiyear contract extensions, including 11 impending free agents. These 11 players took the money now rather than test free agency after the season:
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260 million.
- Chris Sale, Red Sox: 5 years, $145 million.
- Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals: 5 years, $130 million.
- Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox: 6 years, $120 million plus one option.
- Aaron Hicks, Yankees: 7 years, $70 million plus one option.
- Miles Mikolas, Cardinals: 4 years, $68 million.
- Justin Verlander, Astros: 2 years, $66 million.
- Matt Carpenter, Cardinals: 3 years, $39 million.
- Khris Davis, Athletics: 2 years, $33.75 million.
- Sonny Gray, Reds: 3 years, $30.5 million plus one option.
- Ryan Pressly, Astros: 2 years, $17.5 million plus one option.
Now that the regular season is underway, several impending free agents have seen their stock hurt by injuries. Most notably, Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino underwent season-ending surgery last month, which all but eliminates his chance at a nice free-agent payday this winter. He's likely looking at a one-year "prove yourself" contract now.
Since we're now into a new month, it's time to update our 2019-20 free-agent power rankings. The free-agent rankings get updated once a month, with weekly free-agent stock watches in-between. Here are our latest free-agent rankings.
| 1 |
Gerrit Cole
Houston Astros SP
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One disaster start (nine runs in 4 1/3 innings) is skewing Gerrit Cole's overall numbers (3.95 ERA in 43 1/3 innings), but he's been mostly excellent this season, and he went into Wednesday's action leading baseball with 65 strikeouts. His four double-digit strikeout games are twice as many as anyone else in baseball. Cole's velocity is holding strong and his spin rates are higher than ever. He is modern pitching personified. Right now, I have to believe Cole and agent Scott Boras are looking at Patrick Corbin's six-year, $140 million contract as a starting point going into free agency. Cole will hit free agency at the same age Corbin did, plus he's been better to date and healthier as well. Even in this free-agent climate, I don't think Cole and Boras would be wrong to seek Max Scherzer's seven-year, $210 million contract. Still a lot of season to play out though. Previous Rank: 2 | |
| 2 |
Anthony Rendon
Washington Nationals 3B
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What a start to the season for Anthony Rendon. He is among the league leaders in pretty much every meaningful offensive category, and that includes underlying indicators like barrel rate (20.3 percent), average exit velocity (94.4 mph), and hard-hit rate (64.4 percent). Simply put, Rendon has hit the snot out of the ball so far this season. He was placed on the injured list with an elbow contusion earlier this week after being hit by a pitch, though that's not expected to sideline him long. Goldschmidt's five-year, $130 million extension is a good template for Rendon's next contract. Previous Rank: 3 | |
| 3 |
J.D. Martinez
Boston Red Sox DH
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The expectation here is J.D. Martinez will use the opt-out clause in his contract after the season. He'd walk away from three years and $62.5 million. That's a big number, especially for a soon-to-be 32-year-old most of the time DH. Martinez is not a normal DH though. He is on the very short list of the best hitters on the planet and there are no indications he is slowing down. The hard contact rates and whatnot are right where they need to be. To make the opt-out worth it, Martinez has to beat $62.5 million, no matter how many years. I could see him getting three years and $75 million this winter, perhaps even to stay in Boston. He wouldn't be the first player to leverage an opt-out into a raise with his current team. Previous Rank: 4 | |
| 4 |
Zack Wheeler
New York Mets SP
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One month into the season, we're giving Zack Wheeler the benefit of the doubt after and up-and-down April. A few too many walks (4.3 BB/9) are hurting him more than anything right now. The important thing is Wheeler is healthy and the stuff he showed last year has returned this year. It's mid-to-upper-90s gas with spin, and two bat-missing breaking balls in his slider and curveball. Wheeler turns only 29 later this month. As long as he gets the uncharacteristically high walk rate under control, Nathan Eovaldi's four-year, $68 million contract is a reasonable goal here. Previous Rank: 5 | |
| 5 |
Yasmani Grandal
Milwaukee Brewers C
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Once again, Yasmani Grandal is one of the most productive catchers in baseballs. Offensively and defensively. His offensive numbers are right where they are always are -- Grandal's exit velocity and hard-hit rates are up ever so slightly, though it's early, so let's see where they're at in July and August -- and the framing and throwing numbers are strong too. A switch-hitting catcher with good defensive chops in his prime should be in demand as a free agent. That wasn't really the case last winter though. I still think a two or three-year deal will be out there for Grandal. Maybe I'm just naive. Previous Rank: 6 | |
| 6 |
Marcell Ozuna
St. Louis Cardinals LF
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It's safe to safe Marcell Ozuna's shoulder is healthy and strong following offseason surgery. He hit 10 home runs in April -- his 10th home run came on June 16 last season -- with a significant uptick in hard contact rates. Offensively, this is 2014 and 2017 Ozuna, at least so far. Defensively? Well, that part of his game isn't going quite as well. Still, Ozuna will turn only 29 in November, so whichever team signs him will get multiple peak years (in theory). He's in position to be the rare veteran free agent with upside. Previous Rank: Not ranked | |
| 7 |
Josh Donaldson
Atlanta Braves 3B
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If you want to say Josh Donaldson should be ranked above Ozuna, I won't argue much, though I'm comfortable giving the player who is five years younger the benefit of the doubt right now. That said, Donaldson has been very productive in the early going. He's hitting for power and getting on base, and has looked smooth at third base. At long as this week's minor calf issue is truly minor -- Donaldson has been slowed by calf problems the last few years -- another high-dollar one-year contract is in the cards this winter. At age 33 (34 in December), I can't see multiple years in this climate. Previous Rank: Not ranked | |
| 8 |
Madison Bumgarner
San Francisco Giants SP
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The good news? Madison Bumgarner's strikeout rate, swing-and-miss rate, and fastball velocity are up from last year. The bad news? Those rates are all still down quite a bit from his peak. Watch him pitch, and you can see the outs don't come as easily for Bumgarner as they once did. He is only 29 though (30 in August), plus his track record is as good as it gets, so of course he'll find work after the season. The only question is do the Giants give him a big extension, or do they tell him to go see what's out there in free agency, then come back to us and talk? Previous Rank: 7 | |
| 9 |
Cole Hamels
Chicago Cubs SP
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Ho hum, another typical Cole Hamels season. Lots of strikeouts, grounders, and innings pitched. His elevated exit velocity (91.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.1 percent) are worth monitoring going forward. Right now, I'm willing to chalk it up to small sample noise. Hamels will turns 36 in December and he will be a popular target among contenders willing to spend big money on a short-term deal. This past winter's J.A. Happ's contract set the market for veteran lefties at two years and $34 million. Based on that, Hamels has a case for two years and $40 million, or even two years and $45 million. Previous Rank: 8 | |
| 10 |
Didi Gregorius
New York Yankees SS
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Nothing has changed with Didi Gregorius since our last free-agent rankings. Well, that's not true. He has progressed with his Tommy John surgery rehab and remains on track to return sometime around the All-Star break. Gregorius is still only 29 and he's an above-average two-way shortstop. Those guys are hard to find. As long as he comes back looking like his old self following elbow reconstruction, the Tommy John surgery won't hurt his market too much. Previous Rank: 9 | |
The Next Five (alphabetically): 1B Jose Abreu, White Sox; RF Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers; 2B Scooter Gennett, Reds; RHP Rick Porcello, Red Sox; OF Yasiel Puig, Reds
Contract Options: For the purposes of these rankings, we are assuming Chris Archer, Pirates ($9 million); Nelson Cruz, Twins ($12 million); Sean Doolittle, Nationals ($6.5 million); Corey Kluber, Indians ($17.5 million); Starling Marte, Pirates ($11.5 million); Jose Quintana, Cubs ($11.5 million);and Anthony Rizzo, Cubs ($14.5 million) will have their club options exercised. Also, we are assuming Elvis Andrus, Rangers (three years, $43 million); Jake Arrieta, Phillies (one year, $20 million); Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: (two years, $30 million); Yu Darvish, Cubs (four years, $81 million); Kenley Jansen, Dodgers: (two years, $38 million); and Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (four years, $100 million) will not opt out of their contracts.


























