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Thursday will be a great day. Not only are there two LCS games, but we know it's the first of two straight days of double-barrel LCS action. At this point, Friday is our last guaranteed day of the 2023 season with more than one baseball game. That's always good. 

Also, it's another chance to keep riding this hot streak here in Best Bets. Through just over two weeks worth of playoff games, I'm now 23-10. A special thanks goes out to the Astros offense for getting over 4.5 runs in Game 3 of the ALCS and they only needed four innings to get us home. As we like to say on Early Edge (watch everyday at 10 a.m. ET!), it was a sweat-free cash. 

Phillies (-128) at Diamondbacks (+108), 5:07 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: LHP Ranger Suárez (4-6, 4.18) vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72)

The series shifts to Arizona while the Diamondbacks have the tall order of beating these Phillies four of the next five games in order to advance to the World Series. With both teams, there's a drop off from the top two starters before the third, but it might not be quite as big as many people believe. 

With the regular season and playoffs combined, the D-backs are 44-38 at home while the Phillies are 42-41 on the road. The Phillies won three out of four in Arizona this season. 

The play: Trea Turner over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+120)

They're onto me! Through eight playoff games, Turner has gone 7-0 over 1.5 on this prop and cashed over 2.5 the one game it was higher. I still played here, so we're 8-0 on Trea and I'm not moving on until he misses the over at least once. If you've been following along, this isn't a surprise. 

If you haven't and/or want more information: 

  • In his last 47 regular-season games, Turner hit .339 with a .677 slugging percentage. He had 64 hits, 42 runs and 41 RBI, an average of 3.13 per game on this prop. 
  • In his eight playoff games, he's hitting .500 with a .967 SLG(!). He has 15 hits, eight runs and four RBI, good for an average of 3.38 on this prop. 
  • This season in Chase Field, he went 5 for 16 (.313) with an RBI and four runs in four games.
  • In 29 career games in Chase Field, Turner has hit .361 with a .680 slugging percentage. That's 44 hits, 25 runs and 23 RBI (3.17 of this prop per game). 
  • Best of all, due to Bryce Harper lurking behind Turner in the lineup, not to mention Turner's base-stealing ability, it would be really dumb to walk him. They have to keep pitching to him. 

Looking for more analysis? SportsLine has you covered with expert picks throughout the 2023 MLB playoffs.

Astros (-101) at Rangers (-118), 8:03 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: RHP José Urquidy (3-3, 5.29) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15)

We have a series? Yeah, I believe so. With the Astros taking Game 3, the Rangers lead in the ALCS is now 2-1. Are we setting on a path of the 2019 World Series, during which every single game was won by the road team? It's far too early to make such declarations, but an emerging theme so far in these playoffs has to be the Astros' crazy splits. The Astros are now, combined regular season and playoffs, 40-45 at home and 54-30 on the road. We could say it's strength against strength here, because the Rangers are 51-32 at home. Then again, the Astros have now won seven of eight games in Arlington this season.

The play: Astros over 4.5 runs (-113), Jose Altuve over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-130)

The Astros averaged 5.7 runs per game on the road during the regular season and in three playoff games away from Minute Maid Park they've scored 20.  They appear to love hitting in Arlington, too, because here's how their runs scored in Globe Life Park has gone in 2023, respectively, by game: 2, 5, 12, 13, 14, 12, 8. 

The Heaney/Dane Dunning combo was the way the Rangers went in Game 1 of the ALDS. In Heaney's last two outings against the Astros, they got him for six earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. The last time Dunning faced the Astros, they scored nine runs in the first three innings. 

Altuve owns both. He's hit .324 with a .568 slugging percentage against Heaney in 38 career plate appearances. In 13 PA against Dunning, he's hit .455/.538/1.091 with two homers. 

We know how hot Altuve can get and he's had plenty of big postseason games. After a bit of a recent lull, he went 2 for 5 with a home run in Game 3. Two of his outs were deep fly balls (one would've been a home run in 12 other ballparks, the other in 13, per Statcast), too, so he crushed the ball all night. 

Sitting atop that potent batting order, he'll have plenty of chances to top this easy number.