MLB Playoffs: Everything you need to know about NLDS between Cubs vs. Nationals
The Cubs and Nationals square off in the NLDS in a battle of titans. Let's break it down
By
Matt Snyder
•
8 min read
Now that the Wild Card business is out of the way, it's time to proceed to the National League Division Series. This one pits the NL East champion Washington Nationals against the NL Central champion Chicago Cubs. It's a battle of two powerhouses, as the Nationals won 97 games after winning 95 last season while the Cubs are now in the playoffs for the third straight year and the first year in over a century as the defending champions.
The Nationals won the season series four games to three, outscoring the Cubs 39-28. Cubs manager Joe Maddon is 28-28 career in the postseason, with two pennants and one World Series. Nationals manager Dusty Baker is 21-29 with one pennant. He's won his division with four different teams (Giants, Cubs, Reds, Nats), but the biggest prize has eluded him.
Let's run down seven more things to know.
These were the two best NL teams down the stretch
The Dodgers had the best record in the majors this season, but what about after the All-Star break? On the NL side, the Cubs had the best record at 49-25. The Nationals were second-best at 45-29.
If we look at just the final two months, we again find these two teams atop the NL, with the Cubs at 36-22 and the Nationals 34-24. The Cubs also had the best NL record in September at 19-9.
It's not necessarily cherry-picking or small samples when we're talking about the games after the All-Star break. It's 2 1/2 months and these have been the best teams in the National League during this time.
Add in the star power here and this is a true powerhouse matchup, especially for the divisional round.
The offenses are very strong
The Cubs led the NL with a .338 on-base percentage this season after finishing second in walks. This isn't so much an overly patient or passive team as it is a selective one. The Cubs were actually right at league average in pitches per plate appearance and below league average in looking strike percentage. That is to say, collectively, the team swings at strikes and has generally been effective in getting on base while doing so. There are some players who will chase outside the zone, sure (Javier Baez and Ian Happ come to mind), but many others -- even big boppers Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant -- do an excellent job of controlling the zone.
Back in 2015, the Cubs struck out far too much and that stigma has kind of stuck with him in some corners, but they actually ranked 10th in the NL in strikeouts this year. Bryant has drastically cut down and Rizzo walked more times (91) than he struck out (90) this season.
The Cubs hit for power, too. They had six players with at least 21 home runs, ranking third in the NL in homers and fourth in slugging. It's a well-rounded offense.
The Nationals are no slouch in the power department. They only ranked seventh in the league in homers, but led in slugging thanks to being third in doubles, sixth in triples and third in batting average. Keep in mind the injury impact on the homers when it comes to Bryce Harper's injury, too (and that goes for the Cubs with Willson Contreras and Addison Russell -- these two teams are really power-packed).
A healthy Harper actually gives the Nationals one of the best offensive foursomes in baseball with Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and MVP candidate Anthony Rendon.
Of course, the Cubs are stacked, too. The Nationals were second in the NL in OPS with the Cubs third. First was the Rockies, who have a bit of an advantage there, as we all know.
The bottom line is these two teams can rake.
The starting pitching is stellar, too
With Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals are likely to end up with three of the top five in NL Cy Young voting and that's just ridiculous. Overall, the Nationals ranked fourth in the majors in rotation ERA -- but keep in mind the fifth starter spot has been an issue for them this year thanks to several injuries and that doesn't matter anymore. No one can match their top three in ERA.
The Cubs actually had the best rotation ERA in baseball last season but got off to a rocky start in 2017. During the All-Star break, however, they traded for Jose Quintana and the holdovers seemed to get the rest they needed.
After a 4.66 ERA in the first half, Cubs starters have collectively posted a 3.36 ERA in the second half. That's good for second in baseball behind -- surprise, surprise -- the Indians.
The Nationals are third at 3.53, by the way.
Again, we're really dealing with some powers here.
Here's how it appears the rotations will line up:
Game 1: Kyle Hendricks vs. Stephen Strasburg
Game 2: Jon Lester vs. Gio Gonzalez
Game 3: Max Scherzer vs. Jose Quintana
Game 4: Tanner Roark vs. Jake Arrieta
Game 5: Kyle Hendricks or Jon Lester vs. Stephen Strasburg
Keep in mind, thanks to the off-days, Game 2 starters can be on normal rest in Game 5.
Injuries could have a major impact, but might not
Sure, that sounds wishy-washy, but we have three specific cases here that could either have a major impact on the series or none whatsoever.
Nationals ace Max Scherzer appears headed for a Game 3 start instead of Games 1 and 5, thanks to a hamstring issue that caused him to depart his last scheduled start of the regular season. What if that flares up in his first inning in Game 3? That really puts the Nationals in a terrible situation. On the flip-side, he could dominate the game and the Nationals still have Stephen Strasburg for Games 1 and 5 and Gio Gonzalez for Game 2. See? It might matter a lot or not at all.
Nationals star Bryce Harper just recently returned from a serious knee injury. Upon return, he went 3 for 18 with seven strikeouts. He's continuing to rehab and hit off live pitching here in the days leading up to the NLDS. It'll be interesting to see if he's his old self during this series or if he understandably continues to struggle. Again, this one could go any which way and it wouldn't be surprising. He's definitely one to watch, being an everyday player and a former MVP.
Cubs starter Jake Arrieta also had a hamstring issue down the stretch. He looked like his usual self Sept. 21 in his return to the mound against the Brewers, but then on Sept. 26 against the Cardinals he was knocked around a bit. He admitted after the game that he wasn't 100 percent and in fact had tweaked his delivery to take pressure off the hamstring. That's sub-optimal, no? Expect the Cubs to hold Arrieta back until Game 3 or even Game 4 to give him as much time to work back to 100 percent as possible. With Hendricks (2.19 ERA in second half), Lester (strong last two starts) and Quintana (2.82 ERA in last six starts) going well, the Cubs have the luxury of waiting here. Even the presence of John Lackey means there's a fallback for an Arrieta injury, too, but keep in mind that Arrieta had a 2.26 ERA in his last 14 starts. The rotation is much better with him in there.
Turner on the bases is a problem for the Cubs
The Cubs allowed 121 stolen bases this season, which was the most in the majors. The Nats were third in the NL in steals and a lot of that was Trea Turner going 46 for 54. Keep in mind a major injury limited him to just 98 games this season, so we're talking about a big-time thief here.
Now, in Game 1 it won't be as easy. Kyle Hendricks (he led the majors with seven pickoffs) has as good a move to first base as any right hander in baseball while Willson Contreras has a cannon behind the plate. He tied for the MLB lead with seven pickoffs this season despite only starting 91 games behind the plate. He was league average in throwing out 27 percent of would-be base-stealers, but most opposing base-stealers aren't Turner and, again, most of the Cubs pitchers don't provide great help there.
Opposing stealers were 19 of 23 against Arrieta this year. They were 19 of 31 against Lester, whose throwing issues are well-documented but he's quick to home. Quintana is a lefty, but stealers were seven of 10 against him once he joined the Cubs.
The cat-and-mouse game with Turner on the bases will be a big story this series, unless the Cubs can for the most part keep him off the bases.
The bullpens have been volatile
The Nationals' bullpen in the first half was dreadful, but acquisitions of Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler have really helped to solidify the group.
The Cubs' bullpen was among the best in baseball for the first several months, but had a really rough August and then still not-so-good September. Wade Davis has even shown some vulnerability in the second half while Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop (Maddon's likely top two setup men) have had a few meltdowns.
Both of these groups have high upside and both can be gotten to. Given the strength of the offenses, there's a good chance we'll see some late-inning heroics in the series from the batter's box. Then again, maybe we won't because it's baseball and a short series. The opportunity is certainly there, though.
Dusty Baker's playoff history in Wrigley Field doesn't matter
Remember when Dusty Baker managed the Cubs and they blew a 3-1 lead in the NLCS against the Marlins? How about that Game 6 collapse in the eighth inning that lots of people claim "everyone" blames on a fan who I refuse to name -- when Baker actually had a big hand in the Cubs' demise that series?
Baker squaring off against the Cubs in this series is remotely interesting, though he didn't manage any of these Cubs while with the Cubs. His history has no bearing on this series whatsoever, so if someone is overly focused on this, just laugh at that person.
