MLB standings, playoff picture update: Dodgers-Cardinals series could shape up NL wild card race
Meanwhile in the NL East, the Braves continue to pull away
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4 min read
The 2018 MLB regular season ends Sunday, Sept. 30, meaning the postseason is just over two weeks away. There are still plenty of postseason races that have to be decided between now and then.
With that in mind, here is an update on the current National League postseason picture. Here is the SportsLine Projection System and here is what the NL postseason field would look like if the season ended today (Click here for the American League playoff picture):
Make sure to check out SportsLine's daily pick sheet for insight about every game.
NL East leader: Braves (82-64)
- Games remaining: 16 (10 Home, 6 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .513
- SportsLine's playoff odds: 97.4 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds: 4.5 percent
A sweep versus the Giants and a five-game losing streak for the Phillies has the Braves up by 7 1/2 games in the NL East. With just 16 games left, the Braves would seem well-positioned to win the division. Don't count out the Phillies entirely just yet, however -- the two sides will play seven times the rest of the way, with each team's final series taking place against one another in Philadelphia. Provided the Phillies snap out of their funk soon, there could be plenty of intrigue in those games.
NL Central leader: Cubs (84-61)
- Games remaining: 17 (10 Home, 7 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .485
- SportsLine's playoff odds: 99.9 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds: 7.8 percent
The Cubs skated through their series against the Brewers while maintaining first place, so that's a win, all things considered. Now the question for Chicago is whether they can shake off their recent woes and lock down the division. It's worth noting the Cubs won't play the Brewers again this regular season. It's also worth noting the Cardinals are just 3 1/2 back themselves. Hey, anything can happen in this sport.
NL West leader: Rockies (80-65)
- Games remaining: 17 (8 Home, 9 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .535
- SportsLine's playoff odds: 36.9 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds: 2.1 percent
A walk-off win on Wednesday gifted the Rockies a 1 1/2 game lead over the Dodgers and a 3 1/2 game lead over the Diamondbacks with 17 to go. The Rockies have one more game against the D-Backs before moving on, meaning they'll enter Friday either up 2 1/2 or 4 1/2 against Arizona. It's worth noting SportsLine doesn't like Colorado's roster as much as it does the other teams in the division. On a related note, the Rockies continue to run a negative run differential on the season -- no other projected playoff team can claim that.
NL wild card leader: Brewers (84-63)
- Games remaining: 17 (9 Home, 8 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .469
- SportsLine's playoff odds: 98.5 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds: 2.6 percent
The Brewers, for all intents and purposes, have one challenge remaining on their schedule: a series against the Cardinals, whom they currently lead by 2 1/2 games in the race for the privilege to host the NL Wild Card Game. Otherwise, Milwaukee has a fairly easy schedule. That should come in handy for securing a playoff spot (they're 4 1/2 up over the Dodgers), but the Brewers will need to maximize their schedule in order to win the NL Central now that they're out of head-to-head games with the Cubs.
NL wild card runner-up: Cardinals (81-65)
- Games remaining: 16 (10 Home, 6 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage: .559
- SportsLine's playoff odds: 80.7 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds: 5.7 percent
The weekend's most important series? The Dodgers heading to St. Louis for four games against the Cardinals. St. Louis holds a 2 game lead over Los Angeles at the moment, and a series win will set up the Redbirds well heading forward. Keep in mind, though, they do have another series left against the Brewers, which is a double-edged sword in a sense: yes, it could help them move into the top wild-card slot, but it could also leave them vulnerable to being passed by the Dodgers should they split or lose this weekend's set.
Teams on the outside looking in
- Dodgers: 79-67 (75.3 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
- Diamondbacks: 77-69 (36.9 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
- Phillies: 74-71 (1.8 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
- Nationals: 74-72 (1.5 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
- Pirates: 72-73 (0.0 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
- Giants: 68-79 (0.0 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
- Mets: 66-78 (0.0 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are the two teams to watch here. SportsLine continues to love the Dodgers roster -- and hey, on paper, it's a great roster -- hence their seemingly inflated postseason odds. The Diamondbacks have scuffled as of late, going just 3-7 in their last 10. A walk-off loss on Wednesday against the Rockies made their road to the postseason even tougher. Both teams are trending in the wrong direction with just over two weeks left.
We're being kind listing the Pirates, Giants, and Mets. Technically, the Giants and Mets could be eliminated before the weekend ends. The Pirates and Nationals have a longer leash, but no one expects either to make a run at the postseason. Consider that a little concerning for the Phillies, given they're just a half game up on the Nationals. The good news, relatively, is they have a ton of head-to-head games left with the Braves, meaning they still have hope.
Teams eliminated
The Reds became just the third NL team to be eliminated from postseason contention. As mentioned above, the Giants and Mets will soon join the list, but this is another example of the disparity between the AL and the NL -- currently, seven AL teams have been eliminated from postseason play, with an eighth set to join them any given day.
