At the close of play on May 1, the St. Louis Cardinals were 20-10, on target for 108 wins, and in first place by three games in the brutal National League Central. Since then, though, the Cardinals have gone 7-18 and find themselves below .500 even after avoiding a sweep with their Thursday win over the Phillies (STL 5, PHI 3). 

Coming into Thursday, the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) gave Mike Shildt's squadron less than a 10 percent chance of making the postseason. Given their record through the first one-third or so of the schedule, that's not unreasonable. It's especially disappointing in light of the expectations heading into the season -- over the winter they added Paul Goldschmidt to a seemingly impressive core. 

Regarding those struggles, consider a couple of things: 

  • The Cardinals' have played the third-toughest schedule to date in all of MLB according to opponents' average winning percentage -- .521 in the case of St. Louis. 
  • Of the Cardinals' 55 games to date, just 14 have come against teams with losing records. 

That's not to excuse their recent collapse -- the Brewers and Astros have both had much more success despite ranking ahead of the Cardinals in strength of schedule. The Cards' docket to date is notable, however, in light of the 23-game stretch that's in front of them. In broad terms, that stretch is a nice mix of winnable games and head-to-head shots at the current division leaders. 

Specifically, the Cardinals over the next 23 games will get six shots at the first-place Cubs. The Cubs swept the Cardinals in their only prior meeting this season, so St. Louis will obviously need better results going forward. The other 17 games of this stretch will be against teams currently with losing records. Framed another way, the Cardinals after playing losing teams 14 times in their first 55 games are about to play losing teams 17 times in a span of 23 games. Best of all from the Cardinals' standpoint, they get six games against the lowliest Marlins. 

The obvious task before Shildt and the Cardinals is to emerge from this stretch comfortably above the .500 waterline and having taking a few direct bites out of the Cubs. That would put them at roughly the midpoint of the season and give them realistic designs on playoff position in the NL. 

That's all easier said than done. In terms of actually making good on those playoff aspirations, they'll need improvement from a rotation that's been worse than league average in terms of run prevention and innings per start. They'll also need to get consistent results from relievers not named John Gant and John Brebbia. 

If nothing else, though, the schedule ahead -- save for those games against the Cubs -- will make it easier for those things to happen. On the other side, we'll have a better idea of who the 2019 Cardinals are.