The Rays are pitching as well as anyone in baseball, and here's three reasons why
Blake Snell's breakout is only one reason the Rays have pitched so well lately
By
Mike Axisa
•
6 min read
Tuesday afternoon at Tropicana Field, the Tampa Bay Rays shut out the Washington Nationals for the second straight day (TB 1, WAS 0) to clinch the two-game series sweep. It was also Tampa's fifth straight win. They swept the New York Yankees over the weekend. It was the first time all season the Yankees had lost three straight games.
The Rays scored their lone run Tuesday in the very first inning, when Jake Bauers brought home Kevin Kiermaier with a ground ball fielder's choice to second base. Max Scherzer was marvelous -- he allowed just that one run and struck out four in seven innings -- but Nathan Eovaldi was better. Eovaldi struck out nine and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning Tuesday.
That's back-to-back shutouts for the Rays and three shutouts in their last four games. They are 7-2 in their last nine games and have allowed 13 runs total in those nine games, and six of the 13 came Sunday. Five times in those eight games the Rays allowed no more than one run.
Since May 19, the day they first used their "opener" strategy, the Rays have an MLB-best 2.86 ERA in 36 games. Their strikeout (8.5 K/9) and walk (3.3 BB/9) rates are solid, and they aren't allowing high quality contact. According to Statcast, Rays pitchers have allowed an expected .302 weighted on-base average based on exit velocity and launch angle. That's the sixth lowest in baseball. Generating soft contact is a great way to limit damage.
When you pitch to a 2.86 ERA in 36 games, it's not because one or two guys are carrying the load. That is especially true in Tampa's case given how they use their pitching staff. Here are three reasons their pitching has been so good lately.
Snell is breaking out as an ace
Left-hander Blake Snell, who two years ago was on the very short list of the best pitching prospects in baseball, is in the middle of a breakout season. On Monday he stymied the Nationals, at one point retiring 18 straight batters in his seven scoreless innings.
Overall, Snell owns a 2.31 ERA (171 ERA+) with 113 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings, and he's only allowed 65 hits too. Twelve times in his 17 starts Snell has thrown at least six innings with no more than five hits allowed. Snell should be an All-Star this summer and heck, he deserves consideration to start the All-Star Game too.
Truth be told, Snell's breakout started in the middle of last season, when he shifted from the extreme third base side of the mound to the middle of the rubber. Here are his horizontal release points:
You can see the spike in the middle of last season. That's when Snell changed his position on the rubber. It might not seem like a big deal, but those few inches can make a huge difference. It changes everything, the angles on all his pitches and the way batters -- both righties and lefties -- see the ball out of his hand.
Snell's always had premium stuff. Locating and throwing strikes was the biggest issue the last two years. Since changing his position on the mound, he's been much more effective, and now he's pitching like a true ace.
Font has been a revelation
The overall numbers are not pretty. Journeyman right-hander Wilmer Font is already pitching for his third club this season, and he owns a 6.46 ERA (62 ERA+) with 33 strikeouts and 45 hits allowed in 39 innings. Most of that damage came while with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Oakland Athletics, however. Here are Font's 2018 numbers by team:
| IP | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers (May 29 to April 25) | 10 1/3 | 11.32 | 35 | 1.84 | 8.33 |
Athletics (April 26 to May 25) | 6 2/3 | 14.85 | 28 | 2.55 | 11.96 |
Rays (May 26 to present) | 22 | 1.64 | 244 | 1.05 | 4.11 |
A small sample size, to be sure, but there are reasons to believe Font has legitimately improved since joining the Rays. For starters, he shifted on the mound like Snell, except in Font's case he's gone from the middle of the rubber to the third base side.
Here are his horizontal release points:
Not only did the Rays get Font to change his position on the rubber, they also convinced him to stop holding back on his fastball. As a starting pitcher, Font is used to scaling back his heater a bit as a way to pace himself through a game. Not uncommon at all. The Rays have told him to stop that, and just go full bore from the first pitch. Here are his fastball velocity numbers this year:
- Dodgers and A's: 94.9 mph average (98.8 mph)
- Rays: 96.0 mph average (100.2 mph max)
Of course Font is not suddenly the true talent sub-2.00 ERA pitcher he's been in his month with the Rays. I'd expect his performance to decline a bit going forward. But what he's done this last month counts, and there are reasons to believe his improvement is not entirely a fluke. Font is throwing from a new position on the rubber and he's no longer pacing himself the way he did earlier this year. He's throwing max effort right from the get-go.
The "opener" is working
How everyone defines success is difference. In games they've used an opener -- that is a reliever (usually Sergio Romo or Ryne Stanek) facing the top of the lineup in the first inning before giving way to a long man -- the Rays have a 3.64 ERA. In all other games they have a 2.55 ERA. In that sense, the opener is not working because the team is allowing more earned runs in those games.
But you have to remember that the Rays are not taking starts away from Snell or Eovaldi or the presently injured Chris Archer. The opener is starting all other games, so the question is not whether the opener is an improvement on Snell or Eovaldi or Archer, but is it an improvement over the guys they'd otherwise start in those games? Considering the current options are Ryan Yarbrough, Matt Andriese, and Austin Pruitt (combined 4.01 ERA in 172 2/3 innings), I'd say yeah, it is.
"A lot of things to like from the pitching staff," said manager Kevin Cash to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times over the weekend. "It's amazing every day how much buy-in we get. We know we're doing some unique things, and some questionable things people scratch their heads at. But these pitchers do a tremendous job of buying in.''
The opener allows the Rays to avoid having Yarbrough face the top of the lineup -- the other team's best hitters, usually -- while still throwing multiple innings. It more easily allows Andriese to provide length without facing the difficult part of the lineup a third time. With a patchwork rotation behind Snell and Eovaldi (and Archer), the Rays have used the opener to avoid letting their lesser pitchers face the other team's best hitters, and it's worked so far.
As well as they've pitched lately -- and they've pitched better than any other team over the last five weeks or so -- the Rays still face an uphill climb to sneak into the postseason. Beating out the Yankees or Boston Red Sox for the AL East title just isn't going to happen. Forget that. And even with Tuesday's win, the Rays are still nine games back of the second wild-card spot. That's tough.
What the pitching staff is doing this season may bode well for the future, however, with Snell's breakout the most significant development. Perhaps Font truly has made the jump from waiver fodder to legitimate big-leaguer, and maybe this "opener" business is a viable long-term strategy. If not ... well, learn and move on. There's value in finding out what doesn't work too. For now, this is all working. The Rays have pitched exception well lately and, if nothing else, they've been a big thorn in the side of two contending teams the last five days.
