Trevor Bauer landing spots: Ranking 10 best free-agent fits for 2020 NL Cy Young winner
The market for Bauer figures to be a hot one this offseason
By
Dayn Perry
•
5 min read
Right-hander Trevor Bauer is not only the 2020 NL Cy Young winner, he's also a free agent. Now that the hardware signifying the former is his, it's time to focus on the latter -- i.e., where Bauer might wind up plying his trade in 2021 and perhaps beyond.
First, Bauer is indeed going to be a free agent, as he's rejected the Qualifying Offer from the Reds, his 2020 employer. Second, Bauer -- despite previously indicating he'd sign only one-year pacts for his entire career -- claims he's open to inking a multi-year contract. That flexibility presumably widens his market a bit.
What truly makes his market, though, is the fact that Bauer has developed into a frontline starting pitcher, and pretty much every team can use that. Bauer turns 30 in January, which isn't a concerning age for a free agent pitcher, particularly given the skill level. Speaking of which, consider the trajectory of Bauer's career to date:
| Time period/statistic | IP | ERA | ERA+ | K/BB ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2012-17 | 728 2/3 | 4.36 | 99 | 2.37 |
2018-20 | 461 1/3 | 3.18 | 144 | 3.68 |
Over the last three seasons, Bauer's reached new heights in terms of both run prevention and success at the command-and-control level. In related matters, his repertoire is full, and his stuff is elite. What's also encouraging for Bauer is that in 2020 he was able to significantly increase the spin rate on his hard and breaking stuff. That raises plausible hopes that he'll be able to sustain the gains he made in 2020.
All of that adds up to a hurler who can improve any rotation. Now let's have a look at five rotations who make good fits for Bauer in 2021. When pondering such matters, it's of course worth noting that teams in general aren't going to be spending this winter. On top of the usual excuses offered up by ownership, they now have the ongoing pandemic in their quiver. That said, a frontline starter improves almost any roster, and Bauer's market figures to be healthy even if the larger market isn't. That's especially the case now that Marcus Stroman has committed to the Mets for 2021 and removed himself from the crop of free agent starters.
So with all that in mind, let's have a look at what this scribe has deemed to be the 10 leading suitors for Bauer's services this winter…
1. Los Angeles Angels
Even after the emergence of Dylan Bundy in 2020, the Angels badly need certainty in the rotation, and Bauer of course provides that. The question is whether owner Arte Moreno will once again loosen the purse strings for a big contract after last winter's signing of Anthony Rendon failed to yield a playoff run. The question remains the same -- will the Angels ever again build a winning roster around Mike Trout?
2. San Diego Padres
The Padres have one of the strongest and most exciting young talent bases around, and ownership has shown a willingness to complement that young core with strong veterans. During the regular season the Padres were the second best team in the NL, and they profile as contenders for years to come. Throw in the regional appeal, and Bauer should find this to be an attractive destination.
3. New York Mets
Given the assumed return of Noah Syndergaard from Tommy John surgery early in the 2021 season and Marcus Stroman's decision to accept the Qualifying Offer, the Mets aren't as desperate as they once were for help in the rotation behind Jacob deGrom. That said, the addition of Bauer could give the Mets a claim on best rotation in baseball going into 2021. New owner Steve Cohen wants to invest in payroll and seems to prioritize winning, and inking Bauer would indeed be a splash. Team president Sandy Alderson even said so, which is a sure sign that Bauer is genuinely on the Mets' radar. The only question is whether they prefer to spend their free agent budget elsewhere.
4. San Francisco Giants
The Giants almost made a surprise playoff run in 2020, and now they seem to be ready to position themselves as sustained contenders. That will necessitate an active approach on the free-agent market. As for a rotation that's presently fronted by Kevin Gausman and decline-phase Johnny Cueto, a moundsman of Bauer's caliber is precisely what San Fran needs.
5. New York Yankees
Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, and J.A. Happ are free agents, and although Luis Severino should return from Tommy John surgery he'll be a bit of an unknown quantity in his first season back in the rotation. Sure, there's been rumor of tensions between Bauer and his former teammate at UCLA Gerrit Cole, but Bauer recently indicated tensions have been exaggerated and are in the past. Furthermore, money and realistic designs on the World Series heal all. The Yankees could use a co-ace like Bauer if they're going to make good on their current championship window, but it remains to be seen how they negotiate the luxury tax threshold even with a lot of money coming off the books.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
The reigning champs may open the season as the consensus favorites to repeat, and adding Bauer to a rotation that already includes Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and David Price would surely move the needle in the proper direction. L.A. isn't desperate for rotation help, what with Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin also in the fold, but adding a starter means the bullpen can be deepened with those younger arms.
7. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies add pieces every year it seems, and it's yet to bear fruit, at least with the current core. Jake Arrieta's salary goes away, which perhaps means some room to maneuver. Needless to say, Bauer would pair quite well with a front end that already includes Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler.
8. Chicago White Sox
The Sox have Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel at the front end, and an assortment of at least somewhat promising young to young-ish arms to fill the back end (and don't forget about Michael Kopech). Even with that depth, though, Bauer would be a canny addition and give the Sox the best rotation in the AL Central. The Sox are committed to a deep playoff run in 2021 (and beyond), and Bauer helps them get there.
9. Cincinnati Reds
The incumbent Reds may not be willing to pay the going rates for Bauer now that he's turned down the QO, but Bauer's indicated he's willing to return to Cincy. The pitching infrastructure in place is impressive, and there's no disputing Bauer's success during his brief Reds tenure.
10. Boston Red Sox
One thoroughly ill-advised Mookie Betts trade later, the Red Sox have reset their luxury tax status and are perhaps ready to matter in the first year of Alex Cora's second stint as manager. Without question, the biggest need is in the rotation, where the Sox ranked among the worst in all of baseball this past season. In 2021, Chris Sale (Tommy John surgery) and Eduardo Rodriguez (COVID-related heart problems) should be back, but there's no guarantee they'll be in peak form. Bauer would be a badly needed stabilizer at the front end.
