In a series that has been loaded with stellar pitching matchups, the Astros and Yankees wrap up their four-game set Thursday afternoon (2:10 p.m. ET) with one final battle of aces.

Masahiro Tanaka (4-2, 4.37 ERA) takes the mound for New York, opposed by Lance McCullers Jr. (4-1, 3.71 ERA) of Houston.

The Astros are moderate -140 sportsbook favorites (bet $140 to win $100), with the over-under for total runs scored set at 8.5.

Before you pick this contest, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say. The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered this week on a 21-11 run with its MLB selections.

Now, the model has crunched the numbers and come up with a strong value side in this game that should hit at least 7 percent more often than sportsbook odds suggest.

Dominant pitching has been the theme of this series, as the clubs combined to allow just seven total runs through the first two games. This storyline appears to have a good chance of holding up Thursday.

Following one shaky start against Miami in which he allowed five runs and seven hits, Tanaka has been nearly untouchable in his last two performances. He has yielded two total runs on five hits while picking up wins against the Twins and Angels. He has registered 14 strikeouts against four walks during that span.

McCullers has been on a similarly stellar run in his past three starts. The right-hander has allowed two total runs on 11 hits with 21 strikeouts in beating the Mariners, White Sox and Athletics. His ERA dropped from 7.71 to 3.71 during that span, a number that was bloated because of an atrocious outing against the Twins.

Something has to give in this series finale, as the Yankees have won four of the last five games started by Tanaka against winning teams, while the Astros are on a 6-1 run when McCullers pitches on full rest.

Will the Astros finish off this series between American League stalwarts with a home win, or will the Yankees grab another victory before they head home? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thursday's Yankees-Astros money line hits 7 percent more often than its odds imply, all from a proven computer model..