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Prior to the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, Kevin Harvick announced that this will be his final season as a full-time driver. The 47-year-old has yet to claim a checkered flag this season, but Sunday's 2023 Cook Out 400 presents an opportunity for his first. Harvick's last victory came at this race last year, making 2023 NASCAR at Richmond a race he likely circled on the schedule. The 2014 Cup Series champion has four career wins at Richmond Raceway. Cup Series leader Martin Truex Jr. is the 9-2 favorite, while Harvick is among a trio of drivers listed right behind him at 13-2 in the 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds. Also at 13-2 in the latest Richmond NASCAR odds from Caesars Sportsbook are Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, the latter of whom won at the track in April.

The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2023 Cook Out 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Richmond NASCAR picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 13 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Cook Out 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard.

Top 2023 Cook Out 400 predictions

For the 2023 Cook Out 400, the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. His performance when he has lined up hasn't dropped off, as his 11.7 average finishing position is the best in NASCAR, and all but one of his last 13 races have seen him secure a top-15 finish.

Elliott has yet to win at Richmond, but considering how competitive he's been in recent races at the track, it seems as if it's just a matter of time. His last three starts at the Cook Out 400 have all resulted in top-five finishes. Overall at Richmond, his last 10 starts have all seen him place in the top 15. Elliott's teammate, Larson, won at the track in the spring, so Hendrick Motorsports clearly has what it takes for Elliott to make a run for the checkered flag on Sunday. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Cook Out 400 starting lineup. The 47-year-old is a four-time winner at Richmond, including a victory last summer at "America's Premier Short Track."

However, that is the only time in his last five starts at Richmond that he's led a lap and he's winless so far in 2023. In fact, he's finished outside the top 10 in more than half his starts this season and only led a lap in one of his last seven starts. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds of 13-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Cook Out 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed seven winners in 2023.

2023 Cook Out 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full 2023 NASCAR at Richmond picks at SportsLine

Martin Truex Jr. 9-2
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Kyle Larson 13-2
Kevin Harvick 13-2
Christopher Bell 13-2
Kyle Busch 8-1
William Byron 17-2
Joey Logano 13-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Ross Chastain 15-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Brad Keselowski 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Ty Gibbs 30-1
Alex Bowman 35-1
Daniel Suarez 50-1
Bubba Wallace 50-1
Aric Almirola 50-1
Chris Buescher 60-1
Chase Briscoe 75-1
Ryan Preece 125-1
Austin Dillon 150-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1
Austin Cindric 250-1
Erik Jones 250-1
A.J. Allmendinger 250-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
Justin Haley 350-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Todd Gilliland 750-1
Ryan Newman 750-1
Corey Lajoie 750-1
Noah Gragson 1500-1
JJ Yeley 3000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Ty Dillon 5000-1