keselowski-logano-imagn.jpg
Imagn Images

The 2025 Quaker State 400 isn't just the first Saturday race of the NASCAR Cup Series this year, but it's also the first race of the inaugural NASCAR In-Season Challenge. The next five races will determine who wins a $1 million prize, with Christopher Bell looming as one of the potential 2025 NASCAR at Atlanta sleepers thanks to his previous success at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He just won there in February, as part of three straight Cup Series victories, but Bell is still a +1700 NASCAR longshot in the latest 2025 Quaker State 400 odds. Ryan Blaney is the +850 favorite in the 2025 Atlanta NASCAR odds. Given the value that you could get with Bell, the SportsLine model advises backing him with 2025 NASCAR Atlanta bets.

Before entering any 2025 Atlanta NASCAR picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Atlanta predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 23 winners since 2021, including five winners in 2025.

SportsLine simulated the NASCAR Quaker State 400 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:

Best NASCAR at Atlanta longshots (odds subject to change):

  • Christopher Bell (+1700)
  • Denny Hamlin (+2100)
  • Ross Chastain (+2100)

Christopher Bell (+1700)

Bell sits in fourth place in the NASCAR standings as he's on pace for his fourth straight top-5 finish. His season began with a crash-induced 31st place at Daytona, but he then rebounded with his first Atlanta victory the following week. Bell led the race for just one lap, but it was the most important lap as he took the lead from Kyle Larson on Lap 266 in overtime. However, Bell had been knocking at the door of an Atlanta checkered flag for a while as he was fourth in his previous start there and placed third in a 2023 race. Bell has led for multiple laps in six of his last eight starts this season, including the All-Star event, so one shouldn't hesitate to bet on him with the help of a DraftKings promo code:

Denny Hamlin (+2100)

All Hamlin's done over his last three Cup Series starts is notch first place, second place and third place finishes as the 44-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down. He missed the Mexico City race two weeks ago due to the birth of his son, but being sleep deprived didn't affect him last week with a runner-up at Pocono. No driver has more than Hamlin's three victories this season, while his eight top-5 finishes are the second most. He counts himself as a previous NASCAR Atlanta winner (2012) and had a solid sixth-place finish at the track in February, despite starting at the back of the grid at No. 37.

Ross Chastain (+2100)

Chastain has become a completely different driver at Atlanta since linking up with Trackhouse Racing in 2022. Prior to that, and with two different teams, he had an average finish of 24. But since then, Chastain's average finish of 11.4 is fourth-best in NASCAR (min. four starts). He has four top 10s over his last seven starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway, including back-to-back runners-up in 2022. Having the backing of Trackhouse is a big reason why the model is high on Chastain as the team's had success at the track outside of Chastain. Daniel Suarez has an Atlanta victory, as well as two runners-up, with Trackhouse since 2023. Chastain would be a steal at +2100 and can be wagered on with a FanDuel promo code:

More top NASCAR at Atlanta expert picks, longshots revealed

You've seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 NASCAR Atlanta leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 23 winners, including Elliott's victory at Bowman Gray, Larson's win at Miami, Bell's All-Star victory, Hamlin's Michigan win and van Gisbergen's Mexico triumph.

You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Atlanta picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto's picks, including an epic longshot of over 60-1, all from an expert who has nailed 17 NASCAR winners. 

Visit SportsLine now to see McClure's top NASCAR DFS picks, all from the daily Fantasy professional who has won more than $2 million playing DFS. 

2025 NASCAR Atlanta odds, drivers, lineup

(odds via DraftKings are subject to change)
Ryan Blaney +850
Joey Logano +950
Austin Cindric +1000
Kyle Busch +1300
William Byron +1500
Brad Keselowski +1500
Chase Elliott +1500
Kyle Larson +1700
Christopher Bell +1700
Denny Hamlin +2100
Carson Hocevar +2100
Chris Buescher +2100
Ross Chastain +2100
Josh Berry +2100
Bubba Wallace +2400
Alex Bowman +2500
Tyler Reddick +2700
Daniel Suarez +2700
Michael McDowell +2900
Chase Briscoe +3100
Todd Gilliland +4000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +4000
Ty Gibbs +4000
Ryan Preece +5000
Connor Zilisch +5000
Noah Gragson +5000
Erik Jones +5000
AJ Allmendinger +5000
Austin Dillon +5000
Corey Lajoie +6000
John Hunter Nemechek +6000
Justin Haley +6000
Riley Herbst +7500
Zane Smith +7500
Cole Custer +7500
Ty Dillon +10000
Shane van Gisbergen +11000
Codey Ware +21000
BJ McLeod +50000
David Starr +50000