The 2019 Food City 500 takes place on Sunday at legendary Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET, and every corner counts due to the tight, steeply-banked track where passing is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin captured his second victory of the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He has a win at Bristol under his belt and is listed at 14-1 to win in the latest 2019 Food City 500 odds. However, there are six drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is the favorite followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you make your 2019 Food City 500 picks, see the NASCAR at Bristol predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It was also all over Kyle Busch as a top contender at the TicketGuardian 500 and four of the drivers in McClure's top five went on to top-five finishes at the Auto Club 400. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. His model simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For Sunday, we can tell you the model is high on Kurt Busch, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 14-1 NASCAR at Bristol odds. 

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and only his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins at this track among active NASCAR drivers. That includes a victory last August at the NASCAR at Bristol race for his 30th career victory in NASCAR's top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion fought his way to the front of the pack from the ninth starting position in that race and has also previously come from the 27th and 13th starting positions to win at Bristol. He beat Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR visited Bristol and will again start 27th on Sunday. He's off to a hot start this season too, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second in the Clash at Daytona and third at Atlanta.

And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the top Vegas favorites at 12-1, doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values than the 12-1 premium he's commanding.

It's been a wildly inconsistent season for Blaney, who has three top-five finishes and sits in eighth in the NASCAR standings, but he also has four finishes outside the top 20. Last week in Texas, the model warned against backing Blaney despite being one of the favorites at 10-1, and he wound up overheating and finishing 37th.

Blaney only has two top-10 finishes in seven career starts at Bristol and has only run inside the top 10 five times in 20 starts at short tracks.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2019 Food City 500 odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Food City 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 Food City 500, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kyle Busch 5-2
Kyle Larson 7-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Joey Logano 8-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Denny Hamlin 14-1
Erik Jones 14-1
Kurt Busch 14-1
Martin Truex Jr. 14-1
Clint Bowyer 14-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Aric Almirola 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25-1