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By the time the NASCAR Cup Series season ends in November, every driver in the field hopes that they will arrive at Phoenix Raceway as part of the Championship 4. There's still a long way to go before that point -- but it won't be long before the first trip of the year to Phoenix and a prelude to the high stakes to come in the fall.

The United Rentals 500 is the NASCAR Cup Series' first of two annual visits to Phoenix Raceway and compared to the winner-take-all championship weekend in November, Phoenix's spring race is a much more normal race weekend. The difference though is that win at this track allows a driver to punch their ticket onto the NASCAR playoff grid, and it can also serve as a season-long reminder of what a driver is capable of should he return to Phoenix with a chance at a championship later in the year.

How to watch the NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix

  • Date: Sun., Mar. 12
  • Location: Phoenix Raceway -- Avondale, Ariz.
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: Fox
  • Stream: fuboTV (try for free)

What to watch

  • When the Next Gen car launched last season, it created closer, more competitive racing on intermediate ovals that place a premium on horsepower and aerodynamics. It also became apparent that the Next Gen car did not put on great racing on tracks less than a mile, as aerodynamic complications made getting close to another car and passing them much more difficult than anticipated.

    With that in mind, NASCAR developed a new aerodynamic package for shorter ovals and road courses, which will make its debut this weekend in Phoenix. The changes include a reduction in the rear spoiler from four to two inches as well as adjustments to the underside of the car, including the removal of three diffuser strakes and engine panel strakes and a trimming to the diffuser's outer fencing. Altogether, NASCAR has estimated that these changes should end up reducing downforce by 30%, greatly enhancing the ability to race and pass cars throughout the field.

    The new aerodynamic package was tested at Phoenix in January, which should give a select few drivers and teams including Ross Chastain (Trackhouse Racing), Brad Keselowski (RFK Racing)  and Joey Logano (Team Penske) among others an advanced understanding of what to expect when they unload this weekend. 

    In the interest of making sure that the entire field has adequate time to adjust to the new rules package, this weekend will open with an extended 50-minute practice session on Friday.
  • Three races into the 2023 season, one manufacturer has seemed to have an edge on the others. All three races so far have been won by a Chevrolet driver, making 2023 the first time a single manufacturer has swept the opening three races of the season since Chevy did the same in 2010.

    This weekend, Chevy will look to sweep the opening four races of the season for the first time since 2001. But that feat won't come easy, as there has been great competitive balance over the past three years at Phoenix with Ford winning three times, Chevy winning twice and Toyota winning once in the las six races at the track.

  • Chase Briscoe's win in last year's spring race at Phoenix was his first Cup Series win and made him the 200th driver in history to win a Cup Series race. From there however, the Indiana driver has experienced some peaks and valleys in performance, which seems to have carried over into this season.

    Briscoe's team was awful to start the race at Fontana, and they were fortunate to salvage a 20th place finish after starting 31st and running well off the pace throughout the opening stages of the event. Things were no better for Briscoe last week, as he was a non-factor on his way to a 28th place finish, two laps down at Las Vegas.

    Briscoe's average finish of 27.7 is of great concern, but of greater concern for Stewart-Haas Racing is that it seems their trend over the past several seasons -- Kevin Harvick running at the front while the other team cars languish midpack -- has carried over into 2023. While Harvick has had one top five, two top 10s and an average finish of 8.7. Aric Almirola has no finish better than 16th and has an average finish of 24.0. Ryan Preece, who replaced Cole Custer on an underperforming No. 41 team, has the second-worst average finish of any full-time Cup driver -- 30.7 -- after being involved in crashes in all three races to start the year.

Pick to win

(Odds via Caesars Sportsbook)

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000): Call this one a hunch, but it feels like things are building towards Martin Truex Jr. ending his winless streak that dates back to September of 2021. Truex won the Busch Light Clash to start 2023, and he was almost able to steal a win last week when crew chief James Small gambled and had Truex stay out on old tires for the final restart in overtime. Truex has an average finish of 11th to start the year, and his performance beyond the stat sheet has suggested that he and his team are finding their groove again after a winless season in 2022.

It also helps that Truex won the spring race at Phoenix two years ago, and he also could easily have swept the season that year had it not been for a late caution that led to him settling for second in the championship race. With momentum and past history on his side, look for MTJ to be P1 by the end of the day on Sunday.