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When you boil down what the 25 previous races in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season have amounted to, the situation is this entering this weekend's regular season finale at Daytona: Half of the field has already accomplished a season-long objective and earned a spot in the 2023 playoffs to race for the championship. The other half of the field has 400 miles separating them from either that opportunity or the indignity of missing out.

With 15 of 16 playoff spots filled, only the No. 16 seed -- currently held by Bubba Wallace -- remains. With a 32-point advantage over Ty Gibbs entering Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400, Wallace is one of three drivers, along with Gibbs and Daniel Suarez, who can earn a playoff spot by virtue of points or by winning the regular season finale outright. But those three aren't settling that spot only amongst each other.

While only three drivers have a mathematical chance to earn a playoff spot on points, that becomes null and void if any one of the 14 drivers facing must-win scenarios -- including 2020 Cup champion Chase Elliott -- can pull off a walk-off victory at Daytona that vaults them from well below the cut line to the No. 16 seed and in the playoffs.

Here is a complete and comprehensive look at the clinching scenarios for each driver that can make the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs in the regular season finale.

The following drivers have already clinched a Cup Series playoff spot by virtue of having won a race in 2023

  • William Byron (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Darlington, Atlanta II, Watkins Glen)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (Dover, Sonoma, New Hampshire)
  • Kyle Busch (Fontana, Talladega, Gateway)
  • Denny Hamlin (Kansas, Pocono)
  • Kyle Larson (Richmond I, Martinsville)
  • Chris Buescher (Richmond II, Michigan)
  • Christopher Bell (Bristol)
  • Ross Chastain (Nashville)
  • Ryan Blaney (Coca-Cola 600)
  • Tyler Reddick (Circuit of the Americas)
  • Joey Logano (Atlanta I)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Daytona 500)
  • Michael McDowell (Indianapolis)

The following drivers have already clinched a Cup Series playoff spot by virtue of their season point totals

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Kevin Harvick

The following drivers can clinch a Cup Series playoff spot by winning at Daytona, or by virtue of points if there is no new winner from below the cut line

  • Bubba Wallace -- Can clinch with 24 points and no new winner
  • Ty Gibbs -- Can only clinch on points with help
  • Daniel Suarez -- Can only clinch on points with help

The following drivers can only earn a Cup Series playoff spot by winning at Daytona

  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Alex Bowman
  • Chase Elliott
  • Austin Cindric
  • Justin Haley
  • Ryan Preece
  • Aric Almirola
  • Todd Gilliland
  • Corey LaJoie
  • Erik Jones
  • Austin Dillon
  • Harrison Burton
  • Chase Briscoe
  • Ty Dillon

The following drivers entered in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 are part-time competitors and are not eligible for a playoff spot. A victory by any of them has no bearing on the playoff picture.

  • Chandler Smith
  • Brennan Poole
  • Riley Herbst
  • Josh Berry
  • JJ Yeley
  • Austin Hill
  • BJ McLeod

In addition to the battle for the final playoff spot, the NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship is also on the line at Daytona with two drivers still in play for that title and the 15 bonus playoff points that come with it. Martin Truex Jr. would clinch the regular season championship with 22 points, while Denny Hamlin can only clinch the title with help.