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The numbers of NASCAR's 75th season, as it reaches its climactic stanza, have become increasingly simple. Of the eight drivers who began the Round of 8 with a shot to move on to the Championship 4, two -- Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell -- are now assured of an opportunity to race for the championship by virtue of their wins at Las Vegas and Homestead. Six drivers still have a chance at the final two spots -- but there's only one opportunity remaining to try and get them.

The Round of 8 will conclude and the Championship 4 of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season will be decided in Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Since the adoption of the current playoff format in 2014, Martinsville's place in the Round of 8 -- and as the elimination race since 2020 -- has added a new element to the long and cherished history of one of NASCAR's original racetracks, and the only one to host a race in each of NASCAR's 75 seasons.

With Larson and Bell already onto the Championship 4, William Byron (+30) and Ryan Blaney (+10) enter Sunday's race holding the final two spots above the cut line, putting both in position to advance to the championship race for the first time in their careers. They'll try and hold on as Tyler Reddick (-10), Denny Hamlin (-17), Martin Truex Jr. (-17) and Chris Buescher (-43) all try to summon the speed to keep their seasons from coming one race short of a championship bid.

How to watch the NASCAR playoffs at Martinsville

Date: Sunday, Oct. 29
Location: Martinsville Speedway -- Ridgeway, Virginia
Time: 2 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Stream: fubo (try for free)

What to watch

Entering this weekend, last year's Hail Melon -- Ross Chastain's physics-bending, conventional logic-defying desperation wall-ride in the final corner that successfully got him into the Championship 4 -- is earning its much deserved flowers as its one-year anniversary approaches. It was a move that instantly became one of the all-time greatest moments in the history of NASCAR, and it was elevated by the fact that it will never be allowed to happen again.

Recognizing the can of worms the Hail Melon opened and its implications for future final corners at Martinsville and other tracks, NASCAR outlawed such wall-rides last offseason on safety grounds, making it so they will now incur a timed penalty. For the remaining drivers in the playoffs, that means they'll have to think of something else if they're in desperation mode in the final laps.

Even before last year, the Round of 8 race at Martinsville had seen its share of desperation moves. In 2018, Joey Logano's eventual championship triumph in Phoenix was set up by his bump-and-run on Martin Truex Jr. in the final corner, which sent both sliding sideways across the finish line. In 2020, Kevin Harvick tried a last resort of spinning Kyle Busch for a position he needed in the final corner -- only to end up spinning himself out in the process and sealing his elimination.

Not only that, but desperation moves in the final corner of the Round of 8 elimination race aren't exclusive to Martinsville. In the first year of the current playoff format in 2014, Ryan Newman patented that with his divebomb and shove of Kyle Larson to get the one spot he needed to advance at Phoenix. If the points are tight enough and the opportunity is there, expect at least one driver facing elimination to empty the chamber and do what's necessary to give themselves a chance at the championship.

News of the week

  • NASCAR issued seven penalties across its top three national series following Homestead-Miami, with the most serious being an L1-level penalty to Ty Majeski's Craftsman Truck Series team for an illegal front suspension (Majeski and the No. 98 team have been docked 10 points). In the Cup Series, Ryan Newman was fined $10,000 for removing his head sock, a violation of Sections 8.3.2 A; 14.2.1.1 A & F (Driver Responsibilities and Driver Protective Clothing/Equipment) of the NASCAR rulebook.
  • NASCAR has formally announced its Champions Week will return to Nashville, Tennessee and be held from Nov. 28-30, culminating with the 2023 NASCAR Awards ceremony at the Music City Center. NASCAR will recognize its champions across its three national touring series as well as its regional series, and a Champion Car Parade will also be held along Broadway.
  • With Martin Truex Jr. 17 points below the cut line and facing elimination, Joe Gibbs Racing has reportedly made a change on the No. 19 pit crew for this weekend. Rear tire changer Kevon Jackson and jackman Caleb Dirks have been brought over from Ty Gibbs and Michael McDowell's pit crews, with Truex crew members Danny Olszowy and Kellen Mills being sent to the No. 54 and No. 34 pit crews.
  • Goodyear has made a slight tweak to the tires being run this weekend at Martinsville, as both the left and right-side tires will feature a thicker gage than was run at this track back in April. The tire had been tested at Richmond in July and was reportedly the compound drivers had felt made the most difference with as NASCAR continues to try and improve the Next Gen car's performance on short tracks.

Drivers to watch

Virginia's own Denny Hamlin has seemingly become the main character of each year's fall Martinsville race, whether it's been through him spinning Chase Elliott racing for the win in 2017, getting spun by Alex Bowman racing for the win in 2021, his pit road fight with Joey Logano in 2019 and being victimized by the Hail Melon in 2022. This weekend, Hamlin is again the Man in the Arena, where he is face-to-face with Ryan Blaney after a disagreement between the two at Homestead.

After an intense late-race battle at the front, Blaney did little to hide his displeasure with the way Hamlin raced him. After Hamlin suffered a steering failure that knocked him out of the race, Blaney let loose on both his in-car radio ("F--- you, d---head") and speaking to reporters on pit road, invoking Hamlin's own "hack" comment directed at Bowman two years ago.

"He tried to slide me two or three times and failed miserably, and then just decided to use me up," Blaney said at Homestead. "I mean, if you're gonna slide somebody, slide somebody. Commit. Don't halfway do it and use me up.

"What did he say? 'Hack'? I think he was that today."

Hamlin responded on his "Actions Detrimental" podcast, giving a play-by-play account of his race with Blaney and chalking it up as hard racing, defending himself in the process and denying that anything he did was a "hack" move.

"That's two people racing, by the way, for the final four of a championship battle," Hamlin said. "It's just interesting, depending on who's involved. I don't understand -- 'Why are you racing Blaney so hard!?' -- what are you talking about? I'm trying to make it to the final four! I don't quite get it. It genuinely just [doesn't] make any sense to me."

Blaney was much more measured in comments made to the media on Wednesday, claiming that his post-race remarks were a half-joke and that they were blown out of proportion.

"It's intense stuff, and he and I were racing hard," Blaney said. "I probably said stuff on the radio that was just kind of in-the-moment stuff. But hey, at the end of the day we're racing hard. Did I feel a little crowded? Yeah. But when you look at it, it's just two guys running real hard."

Exactly how much of Blaney and Hamlin's spat was real and imagined is set to play out at Martinsville, where the two will likely be pitted against each other for the final spot in the Championship 4. While Hamlin has five career wins at Martinsville, Blaney's average finish of 9.5 (in 15 starts) is the best of any active Cup driver at this racetrack.

Pick to win

William Byron (+800): At 30 points above the cut line, William Byron is in the most secure position of any driver who has not yet advanced to the Championship 4 and likely only needs to avoid a complete meltdown to make it to Phoenix. He has four career top-five finishes at Martinsville, including a win in spring 2022, and this track holds extreme significance for Hendrick Motorsports, which has won here time and again dating back to their very first victory with Geoff Bodine in 1984.

Not only that, but racing at Martinsville is as close as the top level of NASCAR gets to resembling grassroots late model racing, where Byron regularly competes and excels driving for car owner Donnie Wilson. Expect Byron to emphatically punch his ticket to the Championship 4 and send a message that this year's championship is his to win.