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The sixth-seeded Miami Heat will look to avoid being swept in their first-round 2021 NBA Playoffs series against the third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in a Game 4 matchup on Saturday. The Bucks (46-26), who are 21-16 on the road, including the playoffs, are coming off a 113-84 victory on Thursday. The Heat (40-32), who are 21-16, including the postseason, reached the NBA Finals a year ago, losing to the Los Angeles Lakers 4-2. Milwaukee will be without defensive specialist Donte DiVincenzo, who injured a tendon in Game 3 and will miss the rest of the postseason.

The game from AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET. The Bucks are averaging 118 points per game this postseason, while the Heat average 96.3. Milwaukee is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 221.5. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $800 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the first full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen massive returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -4.5
  • Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 221.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -190, Heat +170
  • MIL: The Bucks are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven conference quarterfinal games
  • MIA: The Over is 5-1 in the last six games following a straight-up loss

Why the Bucks can cover

Two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant in the series, grabbing 17 rebounds and scoring 17 points in Game 3, for his third consecutive double-double and third game in a row with 13 or more rebounds to begin the postseason. He's getting plenty of help as well. 

Point guard Jrue Holiday remains one of the Bucks' top scoring options and is averaging 16.7 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds and 1.7 steals per game in the series. Holiday recorded a double-double in Game 3, his third in as many games, with 19 points and 12 assists. Holiday is the first Bucks player to have back-to-back playoff games with 10-plus assists since Sam Cassell in 2001. Prior to this postseason, Holiday had reached double-digit assists just once and tallied one double-double in 30 career playoff games.

Center Brook Lopez has had a solid series and is averaging 12.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and one block per game. He opened the series with an 18-point performance and chipped in 13 points and five rebounds in Game 3. Lopez is a force in the middle and finished the regular season averaging 1.5 blocks per game. He has been a consistent scorer for Milwaukee, scoring in double figures 44 times during the regular season, including eight games with 20 or more.

Why the Heat can cover

Despite that, Milwaukee isn't a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Heat spread. That's because Miami has never lost a playoff series to Milwaukee, knocking off the Bucks in the 2013 Eastern Conference first round and the 2020 Eastern Conference semifinals. Point guard Goran Dragic has led the Heat in the series, averaging 17 points, 2.3 assists, 1.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. Dragic opened the series with a 25-point performance in the Game 1 overtime loss. In three regular-season meetings with Milwaukee this season, he averaged 15 points and two rebounds.

Also powering Miami is forward Jimmy Butler, who played collegiately in Milwaukee at Marquette. He's had his moments against the Bucks in the past, averaging 15.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists in his career against Milwaukee. In Thursday's loss, Butler scored 19 points, grabbed eight rebounds and dished out six assists in 38 minutes of action. For the series, he is averaging 15.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, six assists and 1.7 steals. Butler averaged 21.5 points, 7.1 assists, 6.9 rebounds and a league-high 2.1 steals in 52 regular-season games.

How to make Heat vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.