Jayson Tatum
USATSI

The Phoenix Suns welcome the Los Angeles Lakers to town for a Game 5 matchup in the 2021 NBA Playoffs on Tuesday night. Phoenix won Game 4 on Sunday, evening the first-round series at 2-2. With that win, the Suns now have home-court advantage with two of the final three games scheduled to take place in Phoenix. Chris Paul (shoulder) is listed as questionable for the Suns, with Anthony Davis (groin) listed as questionable for the Lakers. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) is expected to play for Los Angeles. 

Tip-off is at 10 p.m. ET in Phoenix. The latest Lakers vs. Suns odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Phoenix as a 4.5-point favorite. The over-under for total points is set at 209. Before locking in any Suns vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the second full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Suns in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Suns vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Suns spread: Suns -4.5
  • Lakers vs. Suns over-under: 209 points
  • Lakers vs. Suns money line: Suns -190, Lakers +170
  • LAL: The Lakers are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • PHX: The Suns are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

Los Angeles isn't the same team without Davis, and his status is of significant concern as a result. However, the Lakers can lean on their defense with full confidence. Even with myriad injuries this season, Frank Vogel's team led the NBA in defensive rating, giving up only 106.8 points per 100 possessions over 72 games. That included a top-seven mark in defensive rebound rate (74.8 percent), with top-five statistics in turnover creation rate (15.2 percent) and overall shooting efficiency allowed. 

Los Angeles has lineup versatility with a number of available centers who can provide different looks, and the Lakers were a top-five team in limiting 3-point efficiency (35.2 percent) for their opponents this season. Offensively, LeBron James is fully capable of carrying a massive workload. He hasn't been as dynamic of a scorer in the series as he has been in the past, but James averaged 25.0 points, 7.8 assists and 7.7 rebounds per game in 2020-21 with plenty of upside beyond those numbers.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix and Los Angeles are knotted at 2-2 for a reason in that this series has been highly competitive. However, the Suns have some angles of optimism. Deandre Ayton is playing some of the best basketball of his career, averaging 19.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game in the series, and the combination of Devin Booker and Paul is lethal on the perimeter. The Suns were one of the more balanced teams in the NBA with elite offensive and defensive units in the regular season, and that is also showing through. 

Phoenix leads the NBA Playoffs in assist rate at 64.1 percent, and the Suns are keeping up with the Lakers even while facing an elite defense. The Suns are a top-five defense in the postseason as well, yielding only 1.05 points per possession and an effective field goal shooting mark of only 48.8 percent. Phoenix also leads the entire NBA Playoffs in turnover creation, forcing a Lakers turnover on 15.5 percent of defensive possessions through four games.

How to make Suns vs. Lakers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 206 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Suns vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.