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USATSI

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Boston Celtics to Fiserv Forum on Thursday night. The Bucks and Celtics are the top two teams in the Eastern Conference standings so far this season. Boston enters on the second night of a back-to-back, and the Celtics are 11-8 on the road this season. Milwaukee has lost four of the last five games, but the Bucks are 25-12 overall with a stellar 16-4 home record. Jae Crowder (adductor) is out for the Bucks.

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Bucks as 4.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 242.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 112-62 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Bucks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -4.5
  • Celtics vs. Bucks over/under: 242.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -187, Celtics +156
  • BOS: The Celtics are 7-10-2 against the spread in road games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 7-11-1 against the spread in home games
  • Celtics vs. Bucks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Celtics can cover

The Celtics enter this matchup with the NBA's best win-loss record and point differential. That paints an appropriate picture of Boston's overall effectiveness, including elite units on offense and defense. The Celtics are scoring more than 1.2 points per possession on offense while leading the league in 3-pointers per game. Boston is also converting more than 57% of 2-point attempts, and the Celtics have a 30% offensive rebound rate. 

On the offensive end, Boston should benefit from Milwaukee's defensive weaknesses. The Bucks are allowing almost 1.23 points per possession in the last five games, and Milwaukee is below-average in overall defensive efficiency, turnover creation, second-chance points allowed, and points allowed in the paint. Defensively, Boston is allowing fewer than 1.11 points per possession, and the Celtics lead the NBA in free throw prevention. The Celtics rank in the top five of the NBA in opponent shooting, and Boston is securing more than 72% of available defensive rebounds. See which team to pick here.

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks have advantages with both rest and home-court as Boston is facing the second night of a back-to-back with travel, while Milwaukee has two days off without travel. The Bucks are also 16-4 at Fiserv Forum this season, while the Celtics have not been as dominant away from Boston. From there, the Bucks have a top-tier offense, led by Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP is averaging 31.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game, and he is shooting 60.7% from the floor. He has been even more impressive lately, putting up 33.1 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 7.1 assists since the start of December.

With Antetokounmpo in the middle of the attack, the Bucks are scoring 120.2 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top three of the NBA in offensive efficiency. Milwaukee is also in the top three in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and free throw creation. On defense, the Bucks are not as stout, but opponents are shooting only 33.7% from 3-point range against Milwaukee. That is a key strength against a Boston team that relies heavily on perimeter shooting, and the Celtics are below-average in free throw creation this season. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bucks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 238 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Bucks, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 112-62 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.