The New Orleans Pelicans are basically a speeding vehicle headed for a cliff, trying to jump to the other side. One way or another, they're going airborne. The question is whether they clear the gap this season. 

There are all sorts of concerns to be had about the Pelicans. Their spacing, despite some sneaky good moves in the offseason, still projects as a nightmare. They have essentially three months to make the pairing of DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis work before the trade deadline becomes an issue with Cousins' impending free agency. Their combination of personalities with Cousins, Rajon Rondo and Tony Allen is, to say the least, combustible. There are questions about the future of everyone from GM Dell Demps to coach Alvin Gentry, and the Boston Celtics have all but put up a billboard outside Anthony Davis' house saying, "Anytime you want to demand a trade, we're ready!"

The West is stacked, and the projections for the Pelicans are all over the place. The SportsLine projection model has the Pelicans with 42.7 wins next season, good for 7th in the West. They have a 70 percent chance, according to that model, of finishing with 41 or more wins, with a low of 27 and a high of 60 across 10,000 simulations. They are, essentially, a bubble team in a conference that is an absolute gauntlet. If the machinations of the team don't work exactly right, if they hit adversity they can't counter in the form of injury or dysfunction, things could spiral. But there's talent there. 

Maybe most interestingly? The Pelicans have a formula that could give the Golden State Warriors absolute fits. 

THE CAVEATS

OK, before we get started here, it is extremely important to note a bunch of things. So please, I beg you, read this section before reacting to the argument I'm about to present. 

  • I would guesstimate the odds of a Warriors' sweep of the Pelicans in a first-round playoff series at about 70 percent right now should the two teams meet. The odds of a Warriors' series victory overall needs to be somewhere around 90 to 95 percent, estimated.
  • There are all sorts of ways that the Warriors can counter and dismantle the Pelicans, especially defensively. (We'll get there.)
  • The Warriors also, in case of emergency, have Kevin Durant. Even in games where the Warriors doing Warriors things doesn't go well, like Game 3 of the Finals vs. the Cavaliers, sometimes Kevin Durant can just do Kevin Durant things. 
  • Oh, and if that isn't enough? The player with the sixth-highest scoring average against the Pelicans last year was Stephen Curry, who averaged 33 points across three contests vs. New Orleans. 
  • For all the evidence I'm about to present, there's one pretty simple stat about this matchup you should know: The Warriors went 3-0 vs. the Pelicans last season.*
  • The odds of the Pelicans even facing the Warriors in a playoff series is low. 

*Cousins did not play in the lone Pels-Warriors matchup after the deadline trade that sent him to New Orleans.

But the ways that the Pelicans can specifically match up with the Warriors tell us things about both Golden State and New Orleans, and in that, there's reason for examination. This article is not designed to convince you that seven months from now, the Pelicans will knock off the Warriors. (I reserve the right to absolutely gloat and say "I knew it!" if that were to miraculously happen. It will not happen.) 

THE BROW

The key to looking at the way the Pelicans actually feature a team that could trouble Golden State starts with the Unibrow, Anthony Davis. He matched up with the Warriors in a first-round series two years ago. Davis averaged 31.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game in that series ... and New Orleans was swept. Within the context of that series, you saw Davis dominate in Game 1 with 35 points, but then dipping below 30 in the next two games and shooting 20 of 44 from the field (with no 3-pointers taken) in the next two games. 

Draymond Green adapted after that hot start from Davis and started fronting and reaching to disrupt the entry pass to Davis in the post. 

Two years later ... Davis has evolved, and now he's a monster the Warriors don't have an answer for. For starters, the Warriors' Defensive Player of the Year, Green, had absolute nightmares vs. him: 

Davis doesn't bully Green; that's not really possible. But what he does do is use his length to shoot over him:

Here Green makes a smart read to spin and intercept off Davis' cut, but once Davis has the ball, there's just nothing Green can do vs. his size:

Davis doesn't go right at Green, he's not trying to bully him. He moves around him, whether it's off the pick and roll or in the post. He's trying to get to either side of him, and when he does, Green's having to spend so much energy against his size and can't reach up to contest Davis' insane length:

Of course, on a play where the Pelicans had their best chance to actually maybe beat the Warriors, Green made the biggest play of the game when Davis tried to go through him:

All of this is to say that overall, Davis was a monster, and the numbers show it. 

Davis led the league in points per game vs. the Warriors, averaging an incredible 35 points against the baddest team in the land, shooting 60 percent from the field, along with 12.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per game. No one was more effective individually against the Warriors last season. 

And yet, the team went 0-3 against Golden State. 

THE CUT

A pretty salient little stat for you: In the 15 wins over Golden State opponents had this season, they averaged more cuts, a higher percentage of total plays as cuts, and had a significantly higher points per possession mark off cuts than in the 67 wins the Warriors racked up. That's not surprising on its own; opponents play better in wins than losses, and cuts are often a product of a team playing worse defense, being more out of position, etc. 

What's notable is how much it stands out vs. other numbers:

PlaysetWinsLosses

Pick-and-roll: Ball handler

0.76

0.82

Pick-and-roll: Roll man

0.92

1.27

Isolation

0.90

0.83

Transition

1.11

1.05

Spot-up

1.10

0.85

Cut

1.36

1.11

Post-up

0.79

0.84

Spot-up shots make sense; it's a make or miss league, and again, the Warriors being out of position will lead to more spot-up shots. But it's jarring how much all other individual offense suffers against the Warriors. The Pelicans were a drastic exception to the post-up figures, though. They averaged a 1.25 mark per possession, mostly on the back of Davis, turning a Warriors strength into a weakness. They also scored 51 points on 44 possessions in isolation, and they outperformed the standard for most teams in losses to the Warriors in spot-up shooting, with a 0.954 mark per possession, on 48 percent effective field goal percentage, which isn't great, but is high for a Pelicans team that couldn't shoot. 

Those cut numbers still stand out, particularly because of the addition of Cousins, who is thought of as this bruising, all muscle big man. Yet not only is his touch incredible, but after joining the team, Cousins racked up 66 assists, good for third-most on the team, in just 17 games. 

Cousins has a reputation as a selfish player, but that's all about his demeanor. He's a very willing passer, and when you have a great pick and roll point guard like Jrue Holiday coming off double screens, he's able to make easy plays (especially when teams inexplicably try to hedge on Holiday, leaving Cousins unencumbered): 

Cousins is used as a perimeter weapon in New Orleans often, in part because he's such a great passer, he can pass over opponents to find cutters. Notice the attention Davis draws on the far block here, which opens the lane (with some help from James Harden falling asleep):

And then there's this, which the Pelicans only really started to scratch the surface with last year: a Davis-Cousins pick and roll with Cousins as the ball-handler. Good freakin' luck: 

All of these things will be helpful against the Warriors. The Pelicans can put up points on Golden State with Davis and Cousins; those are two top-15 players. But Cousins will also help make the Pelicans' supporting offensive players better by getting them easier looks due to not only his passing, but the attention he draws because of his scoring ability and range -- Cousins shot 37.5 percent from deep with the Pelicans. 

New Orleans didn't add shooters over the summer, a topic of valid and consistent concern. But what the Pels did add were cutters, and players who could pass to cutters. Allen, for all his offensive foibles, shot 46 percent from the field, and 53 percent inside the restricted area. Ian Clark was 74th percentile off cuts. Rondo, for all his issues, is terrific at finding cutters for scores, as is Holiday. The injury to Solomon Hill was actually damaging in this regard as Hill feasted on cuts last year, particularly after Cousins arrived. But overall, what the Pelicans lack in spacing, they make up for with athletic players who can defend and cut. 

This all makes you think that the Pelicans could have a chance for real offensive success vs. Golden State. Last year, without Cousins, the Pelicans had the ninth-best offensive rating of any team against the Warriors. 

The problem, of course, is the defense. 

STOPPING A JUGGERNAUT

The Pelicans were a top-10 defense last year. But like every other team, it just didn't matter vs. the Warriors. The Pelicans' defensive rating per 100 possessions went from 104.9 to 114.0 against Golden State, the second-worst mark for New Orleans last year against any opponent behind the Clippers. 

Much of the problems came from the basic ways the Warriors run their offense, with ball movement, cuts, off screens and in transition. The Warriors create absolute mayhem, and the Pelicans didn't have the length or awareness to hang, as most teams don't. Their big problem, however, was Curry. 

Curry shot 61 percent (!!!) from 3-point range against the Pelicans last season, and 57 percent off the dribble on 3-point shots alone. Holiday is one of the most underrated defenders in the league, and he didn't have a chance on plays like this: 

Most of Curry's makes last year involved Tim Frazier, who's now with the Wizards. But there can be no confidence in Rajon Rondo or Clark to handle him any better. The Pelicans would be best off doing something they were resoundingly hesitant to do last year, which is switch, and try to crowd Curry with one of their big men. Their depth here is a problem (good luck containing Curry with Omer Asik or Alexis Ajinca) but that's always going to be a problem. 

This is where the prism of the Warriors matchup says so much about the Pelicans. They have to be even better defensively next year, and they have the personnel to do it. They have so much length, and such mobility. Cousins is capable of being a rim protector and floor general if he will commit himself on that end in a way he has yet to. The Pelicans have the physical attributes to be able to hedge or trap Curry, and then recover enough not to get sliced apart inside. Durant is going to do damage, it's what he does, but overall, there's a capacity for New Orleans to match up, and you see it with things like how it held the Warriors under their averages in spot-up shooting and transition. 

It's enough to make it at least interesting, when you factor in the capacity for both Cousins and Davis to take over the game. 

WHAT'S TO BE LEARNED

Again, the odds of this matchup occurring are slim. But what's notable is how much success the Pelicans had for a team that went 0-3 vs. the best team in the league. With the additions they made, you can see a formula that can work against Golden State, and if it can work against the Warriors, it can work against anyone. The big question is whether the Pelicans offense can be good enough for them to compete in the West. 

With Davis able to score in every way imaginable, the hidden versatility in what Cousins can do next to him, and the additions they made in the offseason, New Orleans can make a big jump this year. Skepticism is reasonable and warranted, but do not sleep on the potential of what the Pelicans can do this season if things actually fall in place for them. The talent is there. The formula is there. 

Now they just have to make it work, with a team that's been short on luck and is long on difficult personalities. 

Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Synergy Sports.