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The Miami Heat visit the Orlando Magic for a Southeast Division tilt on Friday. Miami is 17-12 overall and 9-8 on the road this season, with Orlando entering at 5-24 after six consecutive losses. Jimmy Butler (tailbone), Bam Adebayo (thumb) and Markieff Morris (neck) are out for Miami, with Tyler Herro (quad) listed as questionable. Cole Anthony (ankle) and Gary Harris (hamstring) are listed as questionable for Orlando, with Jalen Suggs (thumb) ruled out. Also missing for Orlando are Mo Bamba, Terrence Ross and Moe Wagner due to health and safety protocols

The Heat are listed as 7.5-point road favorites, per Caesars Sportsbook, and tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 204.5 in the latest odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Magic picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 44-20 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Magic and just locked in its NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Magic vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Magic spread: Heat -7.5
  • Heat vs. Magic over-under: 204.5 points
  • Heat vs. Magic money line: Heat -320, Magic +250
  • MIA: The Heat are 9-8 against the spread in road games
  • ORL: The Magic are 3-8 against the spread in home games

Why the Heat can cover

Even with Miami battling some roster challenges, this is a very favorable matchup. The Magic are currently No. 28 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, with bottom-three marks in key categories like true shooting percentage. On the other end, Orlando is No. 29 in the NBA in overall defensive efficiency, and the Magic have dropped six straight games with struggling play. 

In contrast, the Heat are currently in the top ten of the NBA in offensive rating, scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions, and defensive rating, allowing 107.0 points per 100 possessions. Miami is a top-five in shooting efficiency on offense, with the Heat also limiting opponents to 43.9 percent shooting on defense. The Heat move the ball extremely well on offense, creating quality looks, and no team has allowed fewer points in the paint (39.5 per game) than Miami has during the 2021-22 season.

Why the Magic can cover

The Magic are struggling this season, but Miami isn't at full strength and the Heat have some notable weaknesses. Miami is below-average in free-throw attempts, 3-pointers and turnovers on offense, with struggling marks in free-throw prevention and blocked shots on defense. Orlando is above-average on the offensive glass, securing 27.2 percent of rebound opportunities, and the Magic are connecting on 12.2 3-pointers per game. 

The Magic are very good at keeping opponents away from the free-throw line, and Orlando is excellent in transition, allowing only 11.1 fast-break points per game. Finally, the Magic are No. 6 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint (43.2 per game), and they can force the Heat to beat them from the perimeter.

How to make Magic vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total as the teams combine for 205 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Magic? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.