Lakers projected to win NBA title, Bucks big favorites to represent East in Finals and Warriors worst in West?
SportsLine has the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks each with at least a 15 percent chance at winning it all
By
Jack Maloney
•
3 min read
The 2019-20 NBA season is now three weeks old, which means we're starting to get a feel for what teams really look like. There have been some surprises, such as the Celtics jumping out to a 7-1 start, and the Suns looking like a real playoff team in the West, while other top teams such as the Bucks and Lakers have performed as expected.
Now that each team has played just about 10 games, this is a good time to check out the early results and see how they compare to preseason predictions, as well as what they mean for projections going forward. SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has run the simulations, and here are the results.
Eastern Conference
| Team | Wins | Make playoffs | Win conference | Win NBA title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Bucks | 56 | 100% | 33.23% | 15.7% |
52.7 | 99.7% | 12.41% | 4.0% | |
50.8 | 99.4% | 20.04% | 8.8% | |
Boston Celtics | 50.3 | 99.1% | 9.53% | 2.6% |
49.3 | 98.6% | 11.04% | 3.5% | |
48 | 96.9% | 6.58% | 1.8% | |
43.6 | 81.0% | 2.99% | 0.6% | |
41.9 | 67.3% | 2.87% | 0.5% | |
40.7 | 54.2% | 1.31% | 0.2% | |
31.7 | 2.2% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
30.2 | 0.8% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
29.1 | 0.4% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
28.1 | 0.3% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
26.8 | 0.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
19.7 | 0.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
A few takeaways from these projections:
- The Bucks, as expected, are big favorites in the East. Coming off their trip to the Eastern Conference finals last season, they've jumped out to a 7-3 start, and have a greater than 33 percent chance at making it to the Finals. The only other team in the East with an even 20 percent chance is the Sixers. Furthermore, the Bucks have a 15.7 percent chance to win it all which is by far the best odds in the East, and third in the entire league.
- Despite losing Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors have looked legit this season, and the simulations agree. The projections have the Raptors finishing with the second-best record in the East, which would be a truly incredible accomplishment if the Raptors are able to pull that off.
- This wasn't unexpected, but the numbers show just how wide the gap is between the playoff teams and everyone else in the East. There are already six teams with a 97 percent chance of making the postseason, and three more teams with a better than 54 percent chance. After those top-nine teams, no one else has a better than 2.2 percent chance at making the playoffs. The tanking race in the East could get interesting this season
Western Conference
| Team | Wins | Make playoffs | Win conference | Win NBA title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Lakers | 55.9 | 100% | 36.64% | 25.7% |
54.6 | 100% | 31.08% | 20.9% | |
52.5 | 99.9% | 11.54% | 6.5% | |
50.9 | 99.5% | 7.57% | 3.4% | |
47.8 | 97.3% | 4.12% | 1.9% | |
47.5 | 97.0% | 5.08% | 2.4% | |
46.3 | 93.8% | 3.43% | 1.6% | |
Phoenix Suns | 38.4 | 35.2% | 0.22% | 0.0% |
37.5 | 26.2% | 0.00% | 0.0% | |
36.7 | 21.1% | 0.22% | 0.07% | |
34.9 | 10.7% | 0.10% | 0.01% | |
34.7 | 9.4% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
34.4 | 8.4% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
31.7 | 1.5% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
27.5 | 0.1% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
A few takeaways from these projections:
- The Lakers and the Clippers were expected to be the favorites in the West heading into the season, and after great starts for both teams, the projections see that holding true. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis leading the way, the Lakers are 7-2, and the simulations have them as the favorites to win not only the West (36.64 percent) but the championship as well (25.7 percent). As for the Clippers, they're still without Paul George, but have started out 6-3. They have the second-best chance to win both the West (31.08 percent) and the title (20.9 percent).
- Heading into the season, there were plenty of questions about just how good the Warriors could be without Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. Things weren't looking good, but that question is now a moot point. With Steph Curry sidelined for three months due to a broken hand, this team has no hope. In fact, things are so bad that the simulations project them to be the worst team in the West, finishing with under 28 wins. It would be pretty incredible if the Warriors end up with the top pick in next year's draft.
- While the gap between the haves and the have-nots isn't quite as bad as the East, there's still a big gap this season between the good teams and everyone else in the West. The Lakers and Clippers both already have a 100 percent chance at making the playoffs, and in total there are seven teams with a 94 percent chance at getting there. That leaves very little room for anyone to crash the party.
