NBA Playoff Picture: Magic numbers, remaining schedules, likely matchups

There are five weeks to go before the NBA playoffs begin and we definitely know the big stuff. The Warriors are probably going to win, and if not them, the Spurs. The Cavs will win the East, and the Thunder fit somewhere in that picture.

The rest of the playoff tableau, however, is fascinatingly complex.

Couple of reminders: 1. Magic numbers refer to the number of wins by a team and losses by the team beneath the spot they are competing for in order to clinch a spot. 2. We don't factor future matchups that necessitate a loss between the two teams (see last week for more).

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Eastern Conference No.1 seed
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Cleveland Cavaliers	100.00%	100.00%	91.44%	78.38%	62.47%	18.81%
	The Cavaliers' magic number for the playoff is six, but given their foibles vs. a variety of mediocre teams, it appears unlikely that they'll be able to rest significant games and still keep the No. 1 seed. Assuming theyvalue that top seed and playit out accordingly, they'll likely secure the top seed and home-court throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs sometime around early April. They may get two weeks of rest, but the starters will likely have to play through then. They are a lock to have home-court in the first two rounds, however, with a magic number of just 10. They're going to be a top-two seed no matter what. As for their preferred opening-round opponent? The reasonable choices (at this point) are Detroit, Chicago, or Indiana. You can make strong arguments for and against each of these teams. Chicago has the best combination of roster and playoff experience, but then, losing to LeBron in the spring is an annual Windy City tradition. Detroit has the upstart factor and size inside with Drummond, plus SVG in a coaching advantage, but likely simply does not have the offense to hang. Indiana has problems all over the map in terms of talent matchups, but can provide a counter-strategy with its lineup malleability and style. It's also hard to say that there's a concern in the second round. You can make just as many arguments both for and against both Boston and Miami as a challenger vs. the Cavs.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Toronto Raptors	100%	99.99%	74.20%	47.76%	15.82%	1.75%
	The Raptors' magic number for a playoff spot is eight. For a top-two seed and home-court through the first two rounds (and a Division title), that number is 14. Toronto slipped vs. the Rockets, and has a stretch of games vs. Eastern Conference playoff teams coming up. However, the Raptors have also been remarkably consistent and have a 9-7 record vs. other playoff teams going in. There's a good chance they push the Cavs to the wire, but one bad week and the Cavs' advantage could increase to five, and that would be basically the ballgame. Toronto does have a decent lead on current No. 3 seed Boston at five games, however, and more importantly, a six-game lead in the loss column. The two face each other on March 18th with Toronto up 2-0 in the season series. If Boston does't make up ground in the next eight days, that could put Toronto up seven in the loss column with tiebreaker advantage, with less than 15 to play. That would be the ballgame for the 2-seed. Their magic number for a top-four seed is 12. That's "near-lock" status. As for who Toronto would rather face in the first round? They're in a pickle, because of their previous disasters in the first round, and if Washington somehow crawls back into the 7th seed (very unlikely), that's a nightmare because they'd have momentum and know they can beat Toronto after sweeping them last year. The Raptors are 2-9 vs. Chicago since the 2013-2014 season, and Detroit, again, has upstart potential. Indiana's probably a preferred matchup for Toronto, as the Raps can throw DeMar DeRozan and DeMarre Carroll (if he returns from injury) at Paul George and the rest of the Pacers' offense doesn't have the firepower to match up with Toronto. Charlotte falling to the 7th seed seems like a good bet, too, but I don't think the Raptors want to face a team with Charlotte's specific profile (strong defensive team with great perimeter playmakers).
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Boston Celtics	99%	88.72%	68.49%	29.81%	10.95%	1.27%
	Boston's magic number for a playoff spot is 13, and they're a lock to make it. Their magic number for a top-three seed is 16. That's far from a lock. Boston's been red hot the past month or so, with several quality wins to their resume. It should be noted, though, that they are 9-9 vs. the other East playoff teams. Boston's also just one game ahead of current No. 4 seed Miami in the loss column. Boston has a tough four-game stretch vs. Houston, Indiana, OKC, and then that March 18th matchup vs. Toronto which could wind up being a must-win for their 2-seed hopes. However, Boston doesn't really have to feel that the 2-seed is imperative. They can win on the road against a Toronto team that won't scare them. Staying out of Cleveland's way by avoiding the four-seed is much more important, and that's just as tough of a fight. Miami has a slightly softer schedule than Boston from here on out, but Boston's is more streaky. They have a rough stretch, an easy stretch, a rough stretch, and then the rest of the way is likely vs. resting teams who will have their seed determined. Boston does have tiebreaker advantage over the Heat with 2-0 series lead with one left to play. Despite being 9-9 against those playoff teams, Boston has to feel good about any of their first-round opponent likelihoods, though I would caution against teams that have a star who can "take over," like Chicago, Indiana, and possibly Detroit. The Hornets would be a much more comfortable matchup for Boston, with Chicago probably the toughest. If they fall to a four-five matchup vs. Atlanta or Miami... that will be a tough series, with Cleveland waiting in round two.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Miami Heat	97%	48.39%	41.51%	9.85%	2.56%	0.14%
	The Heat have managed to survive Chris Bosh's absence, and with their All-Star forward hopeful of a return this season, they have plenty left to play for. Their magic number for a playoff spot is 15, and 17 for home-court advantage in the first round. Miami trails Boston by 1.5 games and has already lost the tiebreaker to Boston. That 3-seed is still very much in play, and a 3-6 matchup with Charlotte or Atlanta are both matchups with which the Heat can feel fairly comfortable going in. Home-court needs to be a goal, however. If Miami can somehow worm its way to the third slot and avoid the Cavaliers until the conference finals, they have to like their chances of making a run at the East. Miami's not a lock for the playoffs; a big losing streak would put them in peril, but they're definitely in the near-lock category, with a four-loss advantage and a winnable schedule.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Atlanta Hawks	96%	40.25%	49.36%	12.67%	3.33%	0.22%
	Atlanta has a magic number of 17 for a playoff spot. The Hawks are in the race for as high as the 3-seed, but there are several things standing in their way. First, they've lost the tiebreaker to Miami, and they have the toughest remaining schedule by opponent winning percentage in the Eastern Conference. Also, they face the Cavaliers twice, and while one game comes after the Cavs will have likely locked a seed on April 11th, it comes in the middle of a stretch where Atlanta plays several teams who will likely be fighting for seeding or their outright playoff lives. Between March 17 and March 28 the Hawks play the Nuggets, Rockets, the Wizards twice, and the Bucks. They need to have a strong stretch through there to improve their position. If Atlanta is unable to reach the four-seed for home court, would it rather face Miami, Boston, or Toronto? None of the options should scare Atlanta, but the Hawks shouldn't feel entirely confident in any of those matchups,either. Miami's rebounding advantage seems daunting, but asking for the Celtics seems like a bad idea as well. For the Hawks it seems pretty simple: just win as much as possible and let the rest sort itself out. They're a "near-lock" for the postseason.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Charlotte Hornets	91%	12.60%	25.51%	4.89%	0.69%	<0.1%
	The Hornets' magic number for a playoff spot is 17. Look at these guys, out of nowhere. They've won 13 of their last 16. They are definitely peaking at the right time, and they have the fourth-easiest schedule remaining in the East. They're just two back in the loss column from Boston for the 3-seed. This is all gravy for them, but the first-round matchups are the problem. The Hornets are very likely to land between the No. 3 and No. 6 seeds, facing Boston, Miami, or Atlanta. They are 2-7 against those teams this season. I don't put a lot of stock in regular season matchups, but those matchups seem bad. Toronto's guard play and interior size with Jonas Valanciunas could be a problem, as well as its depth advantage. Boston's defense seems likely to give Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum fits, and Atlanta's execution and spacing could create problems for Charlotte's defense. Of the three, Atlanta's preferable. The Hornets have a good shot at home-court in the first round and that alone would be considered a success in a season where they lost Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. With their schedule and positioning, on top of how they're playing, you'd have also to consider them a "near-lock" for the playoffs.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Indiana Pacers	72%	2.92%	10.25%	2.04%	0.34%	<0.1%
	The Pacers' magic number for a playoff spot is 18. Indiana is 14-16 over the past two months, and is only a game up in the loss column from being out of the playoffs entirely. They did just beat the Spurs and have won three of four, though, so there's that. Their schedule remains brutal until March 21st, after which they face just two playoff teams until April 6, and those two are the Rockets and Bulls, the current respective 8-seeds in each conference. Indiana is 8-13 vs. the other Eastern Conference playoff teams, but they only play six more of those teams. You can't consider the Pacers truly at risk of falling out of the playoffs but they're not out of the woods yet. Their status is "too soon to tell." (SportsLine thinks I'm nuts, slotting them at 72 percent.)
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Detroit Pistons	50%	1.38%	10.15%	3.26%	0.63%	<0.1%
	Detroit's magic number for a playoff spot is 19. They lead Chicago by a half-game after Chicago's loss Thursday night. Detroit's definitely in it, but they're going to need a solid month of play to secure a spot. The Pistons been streaky this entire year, and they need one prolonged push to really finish it . Even with a soft schedule, it'll be a real challenge, but also a great opportunity.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Chicago Bulls	79%	5.69%	27.65%	10.87%	3.15%	<0.1%
	The Bulls' loss to the Spurs put them out of the playoffs by a half-game. They have to find a way to survive until Jimmy Butler gets back. There's a huge opportunity after the next week to puff up on a weaker schedule, but with the Bulls, they're just as likely to beat the good teams as lose to the bad ones. It's going to be touch and go for the Bulls the whole way, most likely.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Western Conference No.1 seed
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Golden State Warriors	100.00%	100%	97.91%	89.24%	67.84%	55.29%
	The Warriors have clinched a playoff spot and home-court advantage in the first round. Their magic number for home-court in the second round is just five. heir magic number for home-court throughout the playoffs is 16. They're a lock for a top two seed. The Warriors are chasing the greatest regular season record in NBA history and they have motivation to keep it up because the Spurs refuse to go away. They face the Spurs on March 19th in San Antonio with the Spurs' unbeaten home streak (likely) on the line and huge ramifications for home-court advantage throughout the West playoffs. Golden State is pretty good.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
San Antonio Spurs	100.00%	100%	90.54%	70.60%	23.83%	18.10%
	The Spurs have clinched a playoff spot. Their magic number for home-court in the first round is two. For home-court until the conference finals is eight. They're a lock for a top-two seed. Catching the Warriors is going to be tough, but the Warriors do have the toughest remaining schedule by winning percentage. Then again, two of those games are against the Grizzlies, who have about half-a-healthy team at this point. The Spurs, also, are pretty good.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Oklahoma City Thunder	100.00%	99.89%	75.43%	19.76%	4.49%	2.67%
	The Thunder's magic number for a playoff spot is three. For home-court in the first round, it's 12. They're a lock for a playoff spot and a top-four seed. That win over the Clippers Wednesday was big, moving the Clippers two back in the loss column and giving OKC a 2-1 advantage in the season-series tiebreaker with one game to play between the two. The only real question is who the Thunder want to face in the first or second round. The Grizzlies are always tough, but they're a shell of themselves due to injuries. Portland lacks experience but has shooters who can go ballistic. If Dallas somehow lands in the 6-spot, that's a dream for the Thunder, at least on the surface. The Rockets might actually be pretty tough if they can get their act together. The bigger issue is of course the question of whether to try and wait as long as possible to face the Warriors, and have to go through both the Spurs and then the Warriors, or try and sneak up on the Warriors in the second round and hope the Clippers can take out San Antonio and ultimately only have to play one of them. Their chances aren't good either way, but they've shown to be a tough matchup for both teams.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Los Angeles Clippers	100.00%	97.77%	77.00%	10.38%	2.66%	1.17%
	The Clippers' magic number for a playoff spot is seven. For home-court it's 16. They're a lock to make the playoffs as a top-four seed. The Clippers have a 3.5 game lead over the Grizzlies, who, again, are a shell of themselves. With Blake Griffin possibly back in the next two weeks, they should be able to secure home-court pretty quickly. The Grizzlies will be a pain in the rear in a first-round 4-5 slugfest, but without Marc Gasol, Mario Chalmers, and maybe others by then, Memphis is unlikely to present a real challenge. Portland could pitch a fit, but it's hard to see them beating the Clippers, either. A Houston run to the sixth or fifth seed, however, would bring back some really bad memories.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Memphis Grizzlies	100.00%	2.29%	17.30%	0.59%	<0.1%	<0.1%
	The Grizzlies' magic number is just 10. They are unlikely to move up or down... but considering their injuries and schedule you can't count anything out. They are a lock to make the playoffs, however. I think. The Grizzlies are nine games ahead of current No. 9 seed Utah. They have a brutal closing schedule that is nearly beyond words (San Antonio twice, Golden State twice in their last three games, including the second night of a back-to-back to close the season, after a road game vs. the Clippers the night before. Seriously, it's a "SAW" film.) Marc Gasol is done for the season, Mario Chalmers has been released, Mike Conley's foot is acting up again, Brandan Wright is out for the season, Matt Barnes and Zach Randolph are both missing time. They had two healthy bench players on Wednesday night. They'd have to crater and every other team would have to go on a run. It's possible but they only need at most five more wins the rest of the way to secure a spot.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Portland Trail Blazers	99%	<0.1%	29.45%	7.06%	1.06%	0.33%
	The Blazers' magic number for a playoff spot is 13. They're a "near lock" for a playoff spot. Portland wants to make a run for the five seed, but its remaining schedule is the fourth-toughest in the West. There's not much of an advantage for the Blazers in getting the fifth seed vs. the seventh seed -- and hey, they're one of only six teams to beat the Warriors, so the 8th seed's not that bad, either. They face the Warriors, Thunder, and Spurs in the next week, so their standing could drop quite a bit in that span.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Dallas Mavericks	88%	<0.1%	9.57%	2.01%	0.10%	<0.1%
	The Mavericks' magic number for a playoff spot is 15. They're very much on the bubble. Dallas has lost 10 of its last 15 and have been in freefall since January 1st. Ohm and they're 6-13 against the other Western Conference playoff teams. They're tied with the Rockets in the loss column. They're 3.5 up on the Jazz, which is a pretty sizable lead, but they've been plummeting and the Mavs have the second-toughest remaining schedule. A finish in the 8-seed with a matchup vs. the Warriors (and an unholy sweep) is very likely. Facing the Spurs one more time would be a pretty good story for the Dirk angle, even if it would also be a short series. The weird thing with the Mavs is they have the talent and experience to actually be a problem in the first round if they can just get their consistency back.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Houston Rockets	84%	2.25%	2.25%	0.28%	<0.1%	<0.1%
	The Rockets' magic number for a playoff spot is 16. Houston looked like it was on the edge of oblivion for a while, but Utah simply couldn't take advantage and now the Rockets are starting to get their game together. They have a good chance of overtaking both Dallas and Portland and ending up in 6-spot and a likely matchup with OKC -- against which they would have at least a fighting chance, given the Thunder's problems defensively and the Rockets' roster strengths. Their chances aren't good of escaping the first round, and they could fall apart at any point, but they do look to be peaking at the right time after nearly squandering the entire season.
	(Make Playoffs%)	HOMECOURT	WIN RND1	WIN RND2	WIN CONF	WIN CHAMP
Utah Jazz	27%	<0.1%	0.52%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
	Every time the Jazz have an opportunity to make a push for the playoffs, they wind up having a stretch that makes me do this: Utah simply can't put together any sort of consistency, and despite a roster and defensive identity that is better than four of the teams above them, the Jazz are likely to miss the playoffs. They don't have tiebreaker on any of the teams above them, either, and they have a tough overall schedule to finish. They're "likely out."