Nikola Jokic alone can't stop the Warriors, plus other best bets for Thursday

Jokic looks worn down after carrying this Denver team for the entire season

By Tom Fornelli

Apr 21, 2022 at 4:36 pm ET • 5 min read

USATSI

What exactly does Steve Nash do for the Brooklyn Nets? As a player, there have been few people in history I enjoyed watching play basketball more than Nash during the heyday of the "Seven seconds or less" Phoenix Suns, but as I've watched the Nets in the playoffs, I have to believe this is a team in need of a coach who has a Plan B.

The entire Nets offensive game plan is to "get the ball to Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant and let them run isolations while the other three guys go stand in a corner." That might work against a lot of teams, but it's not working well against a team as good as the Celtics! While players are and always will be the most important part of an NBA team, the playoffs are when the good coaches separate themselves from the rest, and Nash hasn't shown much ability to separate himself from anybody thus far.

But, hey, I'm sure breaking the glass on Ben Simmons will fix it. Everybody has always talked about how great Ben Simmons is in the postseason.

Let's hope tonight's picks go better than last night's.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

Warriors at Nuggets, 10 p.m. | TV: TNT

Key Trend: Home dogs down 2-0 in a series are only 23-35 ATS in Game 3 since 2009.
The Pick: Warriors -2 (-110)

There was a moment during Golden State's 126-106 win over Denver in Game 2 when I saw a look in Nikola Jokic's eyes that told me to take the Warriors in Game 3. It was a look that told me Jokic had realized that it wasn't going to be enough to beat these Warriors no matter what he did. Maybe for one night, but not in a seven-game series. Jokic is shooting 46.7% from the floor through the first two games with 51 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists. He's struggled from three, missing all eight attempts, but it's not as if he's getting any help. The rest of the Nuggets have shot 43.7% from the floor. Monte Morris is the only Nugget who has taken at least 10 shots shooting over 50%.

Now compare that to the Warriors, who are hitting damn near everything. Klay Thompson is the Warrior who is "struggling," and he's doing so to the tune of 47.1% from the floor and 44.4% from three. Of course, odds are that the Warriors won't shoot nearly as well in Denver as they did at home. But Jokic looks worn down after carrying this Denver team for the entire season, and teams that return home for Game 3 of a series down 2-0 don't usually perform well against the spread as underdogs. Seriously, since 2009, teams in Denver's position (home dogs down 2-0 in a series) are only 23-35 ATS in Game 3.

The Nuggets might jump out to a hot start after feeding off the home crowd's energy, but then they'll allow the Warriors to work their way back into the game because they're the much better team with the better players.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has the slightest of leans toward the Warriors on the spread tonight, but it has a much stronger play on the total.

The Picks

NBA

Grizzlies at Timberwolves, 7:30 p.m. | TV: TNT

The Pick: Grizzlies -2 (-110) -- Their performance in the play-in tournament and Game 1 of this series did an excellent job of hiding the fact that, the Wolves didn't finish the season well. Over the final 10 games, the Wolves ranked 21st in the league with a net rating of -3.7 because they stopped playing defense. Their defensive rating of 119.9 ranked 27th.

hat same defensive performance has been evident through the first two games of this series, as Minnesota's rating of 116.4 ranks 12th among the playoff teams. We're dealing with a small sample size here, but this should be worrisome. It's why I'm confidently taking the Grizzlies as road favorites tonight. The Grizzlies have been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA all season long. It's carried through into the playoffs, and it will come in handy tonight on the road. There's always the chance that Anthony Edwards does something incredible and leads the Wolves to the win, but Ja Morant and the Grizzlies pull through far more often than not.

Key Trend: Minnesota is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog, and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

MLB

Pirates at Cubs, 7:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Under 8.5 (+105) -- It's our first Wrigley Under of the 2022 season! As you long-time subscribers know, there are few parks in baseball affected by the weather as much as Chicago's Wrigley Field. On some days, the park plays like it's the size of Yellowstone, and on others, it plays like a little league field. Tonight presents conditions that are more of the Yellowstone variety.

First of all, using Statcast's Park Factors, we know the park is more pitcher-friendly at night. Add in some cooler temperatures and winds blowing in from off Lake Michigan, and the ball isn't going to carry nearly as well as it would on a sunny afternoon. Furthermore, neither one of these offenses is all that imposing. The Cubs offense is off to a nice start, but it's not sustainable, seeing as how the team's groundball rate of 52.9% is nearly four percentage points higher than anybody else in baseball. Groundballs don't lead to a lot of runs.

Key Trend: The under is 4-0-2 in Pittsburgh's last six games as an underdog.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: I'm not including it in the newsletter tonight, but the Projection Model cannot believe what it's seeing with the total for tonight's Game 3 between the Jazz and Mavericks.