The best NBA bet to make tonight, plus Sweet 16 picks for the weekend

The Celtics are 8-16 ATS on the road this year

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 26, 2021 at 4:02 pm ET • 6 min read

Hello, and welcome to what has been a busy Friday. The day started with the news that Texas coach Shaka Smart had agreed to become the new coach at Marquette, and that was followed up in the early afternoon with a big NFL trade.

The 49ers moved up to No. 3 in the draft, sending Miami the No. 12 and No. 102 picks this year and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. It's hard to imagine this is good news for Jimmy Garoppolo! Teams don't usually trade up to No. 3 in the draft to not get a QB. Of course, it is somewhat risky of the 49ers to make this move when they don't know which QB will still be available to them, but maybe there are two different players they'd be happy to take.

But that's not all! The Dolphins immediately sent that No. 12 pick to the Eagles for the No. 6 pick (as well as other picks). My immediate reaction to this move was that the Eagles realized there wasn't going to be a QB they liked still on the board at No. 6 after the first trade and decided they're better off moving down.

That's just some of what's happening today, and of course, we have the NCAA Tournament resuming this weekend. You know I couldn't leave you without picks for the weekend, so today's newsletter is a bit longer than most. I have two NBA picks for you tonight, as well as an NCAA Tournament picks for both Saturday and Sunday that I think you should get in now rather than waiting. That, plus the last Final Four Future of the weekend.

So you've got a lot of reading left to do, and it starts with these other stories from the day.

OK, let's make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Celtics at Bucks, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Bucks -6 (-110): Wednesday night was a valuable reminder of why gambling isn't, and never will be, an exact science. We took the Bucks -6 against the Celtics, and the Bucks entered the fourth quarter with a 14-point lead. Donte DiVincenzo hit a three-pointer with just over four minutes remaining, giving the Bucks a 118-117 lead. What had appeared to be an easy cover all night long looked like it would continue being one.

And then it wasn't. The Celtics outscored the Bucks 12-3 over the final 3:25 of the game. The Bucks still held on to win, but our cover was blown. It sucked.

It did not change my opinion about how these two match up or how tonight's game will go with the same spread. The Celtics have still struggled with top teams all season long, and tonight they're short-handed. Daniel Theis played 31 minutes and had 10 points on Wednesday. He's been traded to the Bulls. The players the Celtics added in trades yesterday aren't with the team yet. We're back on the Bucks, hoping they play the final four minutes tonight.

Key Trend: The Celtics are 8-16 ATS on the road this year.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model has an A-graded play on the spread in this game as well. But do we agree?

💰 The Picks

🏀 NBA

Pacers at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Pacers +4 (-110) -- Color me shocked that the Mavs are being overvalued again. I've mentioned it in this newsletter on multiple occasions, and I don't like hammering you over the head with it, but the market seems to confuse Luka Doncic being amazing with the Mavs as a whole. Doncic is awesome. The Mavs are merely above average and should not be favored by this much over a similar Pacers team.

Yes, the Pacers have been disappointing this season given the expectations, but they come into tonight's game with Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner active. I'm taking an underrated Pacers team against an overrated Mavs team that's only 8-12 ATS at home this year.

Key Trend: The Mavs are 8-12 ATS at home overall and 5-10 ATS at home when favored.

🏀 NCAA Tournament

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 11 Syracuse, Saturday, 9:55 p.m. | TV: TBS
The Pick: Syracuse +6.5 (-110) -- It seems stupid, but zone defenses give college teams problems because they aren't used to seeing good ones. Well, Syracuse does nothing but a perfect zone, so when you run into Syracuse in a single-elimination tournament, it poses problems. It also makes Syracuse a very appealing play for me because it's hard to beat a zone if you don't shoot well, and Houston is not a good shooting team.

It ranks 118th nationally in eFG%, 99th in three-point shooting percentage, and 162nd in two-point shooting percentage. I'm not sure how the Cougars will break this zone to score consistently, which will make it challenging to cover this spread. This will be a close game, and, while Syracuse is worthy of money line consideration, I think the spread is the much smarter play.

Key Trend: Double-digit seeds are 7-1 ATS on the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2016.

No. 6 USC vs. No. 7 Oregon, Sunday, 9:45 p.m. | TV: TBS
The Pick: Under 138 (-115) -- This matchup is a perfect recipe for an under. Neither team moves quickly on the offensive end, with USC ranking 209th nationally in possessions per game and Oregon at 262nd. Both move deliberately on offense and force you to move deliberately on the defensive end. The lone meeting between these two during the regular season featured only 62 possessions. I expect this to be a slow-paced, choppy affair that will not be pretty but will likely be close and low-scoring. As long as we avoid overtime or one team getting ridiculously hot from three, I feel very safe with the under here.

Key Trend: The under is 5-2-1 in USC's last eight neutral site games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: CBS mixed martial arts analyst Brandon Wise has just revealed his picks for Saturday's event featuring the Francis Ngannou vs. Stipe Miocic heavyweight bout.

💸 The DFS Rundown

Building Blocks

PG: Luka Doncic, Mavs
SG: James Harden, Nets
SF: Jaylen Brown, Celtics
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Value Plays

PG: Michael Carter-Williams, Magic
SG: Josh Jackson, Pistons
SF: Justin Holiday, Pacers
PF: P.J. Washington, Hornets
C: Robert Williams, Celtics

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.

🏀 Final Four Futures

The NCAA Tournament doesn't resume until Saturday, so each day until then I'm going to include one futures bet on the winner of each regional. Today we look for the best value to win the South.

The Pick: Baylor to win the South Regional (-130) -- While Villanova has become more than a tad underestimated in recent weeks due to Conor Gillespie's injury, I still see Baylor and Arkansas as the only two genuine contenders to win this region. Getting both Winthrop and North Texas last weekend was a significant boost to reaching the Sweet Sixteen, but I think that run ends with Baylor far more often than not on Saturday.

That will leave either Arkansas or Oral Roberts in Baylor's way, and if Oral Roberts somehow gets past Arkansas, I'm not worried about it beating Baylor. As for the possible matchup with the Razorbacks, I think Baylor's a terrible matchup for them. Arkansas doesn't defend the perimeter well, and Baylor is the best three-point shooting team in the country. It's rare to find a favorite that's the value pick in these situations, but that's precisely where we are with the Bears.