The under has been a solid play with the Warriors all season long, plus other best bets for Wednesday

Unders have hit in 58.9% of their games (the third-highest rate in the league)

By Tom Fornelli

Feb 16, 2022 at 4:47 pm ET • 5 min read

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MLB and the MLB Players Association are scheduled to meet this week as the league's lockout continues, and that's probably a good thing. Now that football season has ended, we can start devoting more of our attention to MLB repeatedly shooting itself in the foot.

Pitchers and catchers were supposed to start reporting to camp this week, but instead, they're all throwing in some shed somewhere trying to get in shape just in case everybody gets their crap together and the season starts on time. Though if you were to ask my Twitter followers, that's not likely to happen. I put out a poll Tuesday asking if people thought the MLB season would start on time, and the answer was a resounding no.

It's hard to blame them for feeling that way. While things can change quickly in labor negotiations, and there's been some progress, it's hard to imagine all the differences being ironed out in a timely fashion right now. After all, this lockout started months ago, and they haven't gotten much done since. Hopefully, now that we're in mid-February, the pressure will force both sides to start giving an inch here and there, and we'll have our summer companion back. If not, well, maybe we should all start researching our new favorite USFL franchise.

Let's negotiate some winners.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏀Nuggets at Warriors, 10 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Under 225 (-110): I have taught you all the gospel of Bulls Overs the last couple of weeks, but while the Bulls are playing tonight, and I'm betting the over, I'm not including it in the newsletter. I figure tonight is the time to introduce you to another part of the NBA betting gospel in 2022.

Warriors unders.

Unlike the Bulls Overs, which didn't become a thing until injuries ravaged the team, the under has been a solid play with the Warriors all season long. It's not just that unders have hit in 58.9% of their games (the third-highest rate in the league); it's that the average Warriors game has finished 5.4 points below the posted total. That's a full 0.6 more than the closest team (Dallas, -4.8).

It's not a surprise when you think about it. When people think of the Warriors, they think of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson raining threes from everywhere on the court, but they don't think about Golden State having the best defense in the league.

As for tonight's opponent, the Nuggets aren't nearly as good defensively as the Warriors but still rank 13th in defensive rating. Finally, neither team moves at a quick pace. The Warriors rank 15th, while the Nuggets are 21st. The result is totals that are usually a little too high, like this one.

Key Trend: The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Projection Model likes the under too, but its favorite play in this game is on the spread.

💰The Picks

🏀College Basketball

Mississippi State at No. 25 Alabama, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN2
The Pick: Under 150 (-110) -- Betting the under in an Alabama game is a wild ride because the Crimson Tide move so quickly, but I've got this total being a few points too high. The primary reason is Mississippi State is good at slowing games down. The average Alabama game sees each team get about 72 possessions, while the average Mississippi State game is around 65. While the Bulldogs aren't great defensively, their ability to slow things down helps them overcome their deficiencies on both ends of the court to slow things down. Considering how much better Mississippi State is on the glass, they should have the opportunity to do that tonight.

Another factor here is that neither one of these teams can hit threes. In SEC play, Alabama has shot 28.6% from three, ranking 11th in the conference. The Bulldogs are in last at 27.2%. Mississippi State wants to get to the rim and free-throw line, which it's been effective at, but it's not a great free-throw shooting team. As for Alabama, there are nights when it looks unstoppable and nights when it can't even start. Even if tonight is one of those unstoppable nights, there's still a decent shot we finish below 150 points.

Key Trend: The under is 4-0 in Mississippi State's last four as an underdog.

Miami at Louisville, 7 p.m. | TV: ACC Network
The Pick: Louisville +1.5 (-110) -- The ACC has been hard to predict this season, and I've tried to avoid it as much as possible, but we've got a bit of a market overcorrection here. Louisville has lost six straight and nine of 10. It's in a bad place, and it's not a very good team, but it's at home tonight against a Miami squad I'm not sure deserves to be favored on the road in this spot.

I don't like road favorites who don't play defense, and Miami fits that bill. The Canes rank 166th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and are 325th in eFG% allowed. Basically, if Miami doesn't force you into a turnover, you're likely to score on that possession. Well, for all Louisville's faults, it does a decent enough job avoiding turnovers. The Cardinals are also the superior rebounding team in this matchup. As is usually the case when betting a small dog like this one, you can take Louisville straight up and feel good about it too, but I'd prefer the 1.5 points.

Key Trend: Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 as a road favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Ready for some small school basketball? The SportsLine Projection Model has found a ton of value on the spread between Eastern Kentucky and North Alabama.

⛳ Genesis Invitational Top 10 Props

I've received emails and direct messages about the golf props -- some angry! -- over the last couple of weeks from readers who aren't sure how this works. Simply put, we will lose a lot more of these props than we win. That's how top 10s and top 5s work in golf. It's more of a long-run bet than a weekly thing, so if you're not prepared for prolonged droughts with good payoffs, these props aren't for you. That said, I've been doing this for a few years now, and I've been profitable every PGA season.