What Kobe would have to average to pass Abdul-Jabbar as all-time scorer
The Black Mamba trails the Captain by nearly 6,000 points. How long would Bryant have to play to catch him, and what's a reasonable result for him to end his career at?
By
Matt Moore
•
4 min read
Kobe Bryant finally passed Michael Jordan for third on the NBA's all-time scoring list last December -- a surreal moment in the career of one of the greatest and most polarizing figures in NBA history. Bryant is back on the court and still hungry to continue his career and quest for championships. The next player to track down is Karl Malone, who is ahead of Kobe by nearly 4,500 points. Bryant's ultimate goal, of course, is surpassing Lakers legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who sits at the top with 38,387 points.
There was a widespread belief that Bryant would make a very serious run at Abdul-Jabbar's record due to his obsessive competitive nature, unbelievable work ethic and the opportunities afforded to him by being the best player on a rebuilding Lakers team.
A month later, Bryant suffered a torn rotator cuff and required surgery. His season was over.
Much has changed in the nine months since Bryant left the floor of an NBA regular-season game. The Lakers are different, with a young core they're hoping to build around and quality veterans they hope will make the team competitive. Bryant is also different, having added more perspective and having started to entertain the very real possibility of his career being over sooner rather than later.
There's debate over whether Bryant retires at the end of this season when his contract with the Lakers is up. The situation could likely go either way at this point. He wants to try and get through his first full season since 2012, then go from there. His goals are about teaching the young Lakers how to win, proving he can still play at a high level, and reflecting on an illustrious and brilliant career that won him the five championships he so proudly touts.
It's good that Bryant's career statistical accomplishments mean little to him, and even better than he doesn't require them to validate how great he has been in the NBA.
The hard reality: Kobe's dream of catching Kareem is dead. Let's start with the most conservative estimates and work forward.
| Kobe Bryant's scoring title chase | |
|
If Kobe plays 82 games, averaging X points per game, he needs … |
Seasons to capture the all-time scoring title |
|
18 |
4.00 |
|
20 |
3.60 |
|
25 |
2.88 |
|
28 |
2.57 |
|
30 |
2.40 |
Bryant scoring 30 points per game is off the table. That's done. Not doable. Bryant playing 82 games is honestly off the table as well. He's looking at more like a 25-minute-per-game max, meaning that if he puts in 18 a night, he's doing pretty well. A 15-point average for 25-minutes a night over 70 games? That might be doable. What does that look like?
| Kobe Bryant's scoring title chase | |
|
If Kobe plays 70 games, averaging X points per game, he needs … |
Seasons to capture the all-time scoring title |
|
15 |
5.62 |
Bryant would need to play until he's 41 years old to reach this marker. That seems absolutely crazy now. Yet what if Bryant were to get in a good health groove, and manage to maintain a level where he could be a starter -- not a star, but a starter -- and enjoy watching this Lakers team become whatever its ceiling ends up being? It's not completely 100 percent out of the question, especially given the fact he might be able to bump that scoring output a bit on some nights. He'll just need to play five more seasons. Good luck with that, Kobe.
So I'd say the dream is mostly dead, but not completely dead.
There's still hope here, if however faint. But seriously, Kobe's not going to get there.
Here's a bigger thing. Does it matter? I'm not sloughing off the statistical significance like many will. It's easier to just say "count the rings." But there are a lot of guys with rings, if only few with that many. Bryant's ethos as a player, his notoriety and identity were built upon his scoring ability. That's what makes him the Mamba. No matter what, he goes down as the greatest scoring guard of all time, and that's a feat in and of itself. Coming up nearly 6,000 points short of the top, however, does stand out to a degree, though he'll obviously close that gap at least this season, and perhaps in the future. (It also completely blows your mind as far as how amazing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career was, both in longevity and output.)
I'm not arguing that Kobe Bryant finishing third on the NBA's all-time scoring list should dampen or change how his career is viewed. The big picture is that his career has been unfathomably great. He's the second-greatest shooting guard of all time. Jordan being third didn't take anything away from his career, even with 2.5 seasons missing due to retirement. A legacy goes beyond numbers. Yet for those who hoped Bryant passing Abdul-Jabbar would add to the way he is viewed among the top-5 (or top-10) in NBA history, they may have to settle for him coming up short in that regard.
So let it be stated for the record that I am writing off Kobe Bryant in one regard. That always works out well ...
