Oregon's Justin Herbert announced on Wednesday that he'll return to school for his senior season, which means there will be one fewer first-round talent in the 2019 NFL Draft class. And while this is great news for the Ducks, it's a troubling development for quarterback-needy NFL teams who were hoping Herbert would be draft-eligible this offseason.
And unlike last year's class that included five quarterbacks going in the first round, the 2019 draft will be heavy on defensive players -- edge rushers, defensive tackles and cornerbacks chief among them -- and light on passers. So light, in fact, that we could see two -- and maybe even just one -- quarterback go in Round 1.
But we have several months to sort out the particulars. For now, here's how we'd rank the quarterbacks for the 2019 NFL Draft.
1. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
Here's a stat that should get your attention: Haskins, a redshirt sophomore, completed 70.2 percent of his passes this season as he transformed Ohio State's offense. He attempted a whopping 496 throws, completing 348 of them, 47 of which found the end zone for touchdowns. Forty-seven! He also threw for 4,580 yards but his best effort came in the Buckeyes' two more recent games; he had six touchdowns and no interceptions against Michigan, and followed that up with a five-touchdown effort against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship. In those two outings, Haskins completed 75 percent of his passes and had just one turnover.
At 6-3, 220 pounds, Haskins already looks like an NFL quarterback. But he also possesses the arm strength to make the necessary throws. More importantly, he throws with both touch and accuracy, shows the ability to consistently understand coverages, and rarely looks rattled in the pocket. And while Haskins isn't a running quarterback, he moves well in the backfield and is capable of using his legs when necessary. He's also a master of the deep ball.
Dwayne Haskins: 20-23 for 233 yards and 4 touchdown.
— AJ King (@allday_ajking) September 9, 2018
AND THAT FREAKING. DEEP. BALL. 😍😍😍 #HaskinsHive pic.twitter.com/PNT4FxuqXe
Dwayne Haskins throws a deep ball to Johnnie Dixon for a score! #GoBucks #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/iaYlX1HxeH
— The Game Haus Sports (@TGHSports) October 6, 2018
The two biggest issues are his experience -- he attempted just 40 passes in 2017 -- and whether he'll leave school. The advisory board reportedly gave him a first-round grade but Haskins hasn't announced his future plans beyond playing in the Rose Bowl when Ohio State faces Washington.
But make no mistake: With Herbert out of the picture, Haskins would be the first quarterback drafted, probably among the first 10 selections.
2. Drew Lock, Missouri
Here's our quick and dirty assessment of Drew Lock: He's a lot like Jay Cutler -- both the good and bad. Lock can throw the ball a mile but he has never met a coverage he couldn't squeeze a pass into, and sometimes his decisions leave you wondering if he even had his eyes open on the play. But when he's on ... whew boy, it's fun to watch. Take, for example, his game against Florida. Lock went 24 of 32 for 230 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers.
With this TD pass Drew Lock passes Tim Tebow and Chris Leak IN FLORIDA for 3rd all-time in TD passes in SEC history. He is tied with Peyton Manning with 89!!
— #NobodyDied (@ftbeard_17) November 3, 2018
Also... Mizzou's up 28-10 at the swamp! pic.twitter.com/27emueEgk7
This was the start of a four-game winning streak to close out the regular season and over that stretch Lock never completed fewer than 64 percent of his throws, and had nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. In the five games prior to that, however, Missouri was 1-4 and on three occasions Lock's completion percentage was no better than 50 percent. He also had five touchdowns and five interceptions in those games.
Put another way: There's a lot to like about Lock's physical skills. But there are enough red flags to give teams pause if they're considering Lock as a first-round pick. Realistically, Haskins (should he declare) could be the only quarterback to go in Round 1. And if Haskins returns to school, things will get very interesting for those teams trying to talk themselves into Lock.
3. Daniel Jones, Duke
We like Daniel Jones a lot for all the little things he does to make the players around him better. But there are also warning signs that teams will have to evaluate to determine if he's a worthy first-rounder. For starters, Jones completed just 59 percent of his throws this season, slightly up from 56.7 in 2017. He also managed just 17 touchdowns, which is considerably less than Haskins' 47 and Lock's 25. But some of that can be blamed on the players around Jones, many of whom aren't quite at the level of what Haskins and Lock have had to work with.
But there's no denying that Jones has the potential to be a very good NFL quarterback. He's sneaky athletic (Jones rushed for 186 yards against UNC) and surprisingly fast when he decides to run. He also gets the ball out quickly and accurately, regularly keeps his eyes downfield as pocket closes in around him, and is able to deliver accurate throws despite pressure. He sometimes struggles with downfield throws but routinely goes throw his progressions, which will appeal to NFL teams.
Quick progression to confirm pre snap reads and adjusting post snap, watch this throw by Daniel Jones and how the underneath CB tries to bait him but he throws an absolute bullet to fit it in there for a 1st. pic.twitter.com/YARk8nbvZ9
— The Mick Nartin™ (@themicknartin) October 1, 2018
Also appealing: Jones plays for quarterbacks guru David Cutcliffe, who has worked with Peyton and Eli Manning. Jones, who is a redshirt junior, also has yet to declare for the draft.
4. Will Grier, West Virginia
Will Grier will skip the Mountaineers' bowl game to prepare for the draft, and that will include an appearance at the Senior Bowl next month. He has a very good understanding of the defense prior to the snap, and he gets the ball out quickly on shorter routes. If N.C. State's Ryan Finley is an anticipation thrower, Grier is a timing thrower on deeper routes. We saw that throughout the season on deep balls to his favorite target, David Sills. Grier also shows good touch on sideline routes, though he sometimes tries to make plays when throwing the ball away would be the prudent move. But there's something to be said for taking risks; there aren't a lot of by-the-book NFL franchise quarterbacks. We still have questions about his downfield arm-strength accuracy, though he did throw 37 touchdowns in 2018 after throwing 34 the season before.
Grier also has a flair for the dramatic. Here's his touchdown throw against the Longhorns that cut Texas' lead to one point with less than 20 seconds to go:
UNBELIEVABLE
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) November 3, 2018
WILL GRIER & @WVUfootball BRING IT WITHIN 1! pic.twitter.com/xq6PGsHVlL
And here's the subsequent two-point conversion that decided the game.
Will Grier’s QB draw for two and the win at Texas #WVUvsTexas pic.twitter.com/k2cmlKf2sA
— The Sports Quotient (@SportsQuotient) November 3, 2018
There's a lot to like here and NFL teams will do their research. For us, Grier is probably a second-round pick right now but that could certainly change.
5. Ryan Finley, N.C. State
First things first: We don't see Ryan Finley as a first-round pick. But that doesn't mean he can't play in the NFL, or that he won't get over-drafted because of the lack of depth in the 2019 quarterback class. He reminds us of Kirk Cousins, who signed an all-guaranteed $84 million deal last offseason and has been a top-12 quarterback this season, according to Football Outsiders, despite playing behind a dreadful offensive line.
One of the first things you'll notice about Finley is that he lacks arm strength, which has made him proficient in other areas -- namely, anticipatory throws:
Ryan Finley's third TD pass of the day seals it for @PackFootball! #1Pack1Goal pic.twitter.com/KaS6UIvdOs
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 29, 2018
This is a recurring theme throughout his career and something NFL offensive coordinators will appreciate. In fact, there's a lot to like -- it's just that the arm-strength issue is a big one.
Finley has a great feel for identifying his pre-snap options based on the defense. He also seems to process information quickly, which, again, he needs to do because of his lack of elite arm strength. He can be laser-accurate with his throws and show great composure in the pocket. He has good touch on intermediate passes, especially on fades in the end zone. Finley is a rhythm thrower who can get hot, and if defenses sit in zone looks he'll pick them apart. But he struggles to go through his progressions, which left us wondering on more than one occasion: What happens when first read isn't there? That might be a bigger question than arm strength.