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The last time the Kansas City Chiefs did not win the AFC West, Patrick Mahomes was a sophomore two-sport athlete at Texas Tech, Travis Kelce was in his third season with the Chiefs and Taylor Swift was dating Calvin Harris—five boyfriends ago.

Fast forward to 2025. Mahomes has won three Super Bowls and two NFL MVP awards, Tayvis is a thing and the Chiefs have won nine straight division titles. That's two shy of the NFL record of 11 set by the Patriots, who finished atop the AFC East every year from 2009-19. 

There is no surprise Mahomes, Kelce and the rest of the Kansas City squad are clear favorites to hang a 10th straight banner. Sportsbooks have the Chiefs as -115 favorites to finish atop the AFC West, well ahead of the Chargers (+325), Broncos (+425) and Raiders (+2000). 

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the AFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

AFC West division futures and model projections

TeamModel div sim%Implied model oddsBest market odds
Kansas City Chiefs41.6%+140-115 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
Los Angeles Chargers36.7%+172+325 (Caesars)
Denver Broncos18.5%+441+425 (BetMGM)
Las Vegas Raiders3.2%+3025+2000 (BetMGM)

While the model simulations say the Chiefs win the division more than any other team, at 41.6% of the time, the current odds on Kansas City don't offer value. The model would need at least +140, but the best price is -115 at both DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Instead, the model does see an edge playing the Chargers in the AFC West winner market. The projections say Los Angeles wins the division 36.7% of the time, which equates to +172 in implied odds. Bettors at Caesars, however, are getting +325 on the Chargers. Neither the Broncos nor the Raiders are worth playing at their current odds, according to the model.

Kansas City Chiefs futures

  • Win total model projection: 10.3
  • Best market win total odds: Under 10.5 (+130, Caesars)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 77.8% (-350)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: -360 (Caesars)
  • Model sim% to win AFC: 9.4% (+964)
  • Best market odds to win AFC: +380 (FanDuel)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 4.2% (+2281)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +800 (Caesars, FanDuel)

Based on the model's projections, the Chiefs are being overvalued in all markets. The simulations say Kansas City is a bad play in the Super Bowl market, where +2281 would be a fair price based on the model's numbers, but sportsbooks are only offering +800 at the best. The Chiefs also are negative value to win the AFC (+380 at FanDuel) when +964 is the minimum price to play. Even the price on the team to make the playoffs (-360) is essentially a wash with the model's fair value (-350). The only market in which to play Kansas City, according to the model, is the win total market, which is offering +130 on Under 10.5 wins. The model projects 10.3 victories.

Los Angeles Chargers futures

  • Win total model projection: 9.9
  • Best market win total odds: Over 9.5 (+110, FanDuel)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 73.1% (-272)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: -115 (FanDuel)
  • Model sim% to win AFC: 7.2% (+1289)
  • Best market odds to win AFC: +1400 (Caesars, FanDuel)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 3.1% (+3126)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +2800 (DraftKings)

The model doesn't see a big gap between Kansas City and Los Angeles, so there's much more value with the Chargers among the AFC West teams. The projections like Over 9.5 wins (+110); the simulations say Los Angeles wins 9.9 games. The model also sees value in betting the Chargers to make the playoffs at -115 when it projects the team to make the postseason 73.1% of the time (which equates to -272). There's even value in the AFC Championship market, with Los Angeles at +1400 when +1289 would be fair. However, the odds on the Chargers to win the Super Bowl (+2800) still aren't high enough for the model, which would demand at least +3126.

Denver Broncos futures

  • Win total model projection: 9.2
  • Best market win total odds: Under 9.5 (-110, DraftKings)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 56.0% (-127)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: -105 (BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to win AFC: 4.9% (+1941)
  • Best market odds to win AFC: +1800 (BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 2.1% (+4662)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +4000 (BetMGM)

The model is a bit mixed on Broncos futures. The projections say Under 9.5 wins (-110) is merely fair; the simulations say Denver wins 9.2 games. There is slightly more value on the Broncos to make the playoffs at -105 when the model says the team reaches the postseason 56.0% of the time (which equates to -127). The value on Denver stops there. Projections need better prices on the Broncos to win the AFC and to win the Super Bowl before jumping into those markets.

Las Vegas Raiders futures

  • Win total model projection: 6.9
  • Best market win total odds: Under 7.5 (-140, Caesars)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 16.2% (+517)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: +310 (BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to win AFC: 0.3% (+33233)
  • Best market odds to win AFC: +6000 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0% (N/A)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +12500 (BetMGM)

If the model is correct, the Raiders are in store for another disappointing season. One year after Las Vegas won just four games, projections have the team winning 6.9 games, which makes Under 7.5 (-140) a fair play. The simulations do not see any value in playing the Raiders to make the playoffs, win the AFC or win the Super Bowl.