NFL picks, best bets, player, props: This Christmas Day parlay returns 9-1

After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's model reveals its top NFL Christmas Day parlay and best bets

By Ross Kelly

Dec 23, 2025 at 10:28 am ET • 2 min read

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The NFL Christmas Day tradition is a relatively new one, but most fans won't complain about spending another holiday watching football. One could make a Christmas NFL parlay from the three games on this year's slate, featuring Cowboys vs. Commanders (+6.5 at DraftKings) at 1 p.m. ET, Lions vs. Vikings (+6) at 4:30 p.m. ET and Chiefs vs. Broncos (-13) at 8:15 p.m. ET. A football parlay could consist of NFL player props, spread picks, over/under bets, money line predictions, or some combination of those. Players one could target with anytime touchdown NFL props include CeeDee Lamb (+115), Jahmyr Gibbs (-195), Justin Jefferson (+140) and RJ Harvey (-120).

The Chiefs are used to being favored by double-digits rather than underdogs, but that's their reality with backup quarterback, Gardner Minshew, now out after injuring his knee a week after Patrick Mahomes did the same. Underdogs of 13-plus points are 1-10 straight up this season but are 7-4 against the spread. Thus, making NFL bets that back the Broncos to win but the Chiefs to cover could be two legs of your NFL Christmas Day parlay. Before locking in any Christmas NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins, on picks like Lamb as an anytime touchdown scorer. Bet it at DraftKings right here:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 17 NFL odds and locked in four confident NFL best bets for Christmas Day. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of well over 9-1. You can only see the model's Christmas NFL parlay picks at SportsLine.

Top Christmas NFL parlay picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is backing the Over (50.5) to hit in Cowboys vs. Commanders at 1 p.m. ET. No team has eclipsed the total quite like Dallas this season as the Over is 11-4 for the team, the best Over percentage in the league. The Cowboys have gone over in each of their last four games, while four of their last five matchups with Washington have also gone over. That includes their Week 7 contest, which was one of the highest-scoring games of the season with 66 total points.

The Commanders have also leaned over this year, as it's gone 5-2 over their last seven games. The Over is also 4-0 when the Commanders are home underdogs in 2025. The simulations forecast the teams combining for nearly 60 points. Thus, the Over hits well over 60% of the time. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here, and bet the Over at to hit at DraftKings: