The first third of the NFL season is gone, and somehow, already, this is the last weekend of October football. It sure does fly, doesn't it? In some senses, it's still early. In other senses, it's getting late. Teams off to nice starts must realize it's just that -- only a start -- while teams with ground to make up will be looking to do it in a hurry.
Starting this week and every week thereafter, we'll look at the five most important games in the playoff races. How do we measure the "biggest," you ask? We use SportsLine projections to determine the biggest swing in playoff odds based on a result. It's key to know that in these simulations, each game happens in a vacuum (aka it doesn't take into account the potential impact of other results around the league), but it gives us a really good sense of which contests could most shape the postseason picture.
1. Bengals at Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS, streaming on Paramount+
Current playoff odds | 59% | 66% |
With win | 72% | 78% |
With loss | 47% | 55% |
It's no surprise that a divisional matchup carries huge weight in an exercise like this, and Bengals at Ravens should be an absolute dandy ... if Lamar Jackson can play. He's missed the past two games, which the Ravens split, beating the Falcons but losing to the Browns. Baltimore would love to avoid a 0-2 start to divisional play. Cincinnati, meanwhile, rolls into Charm City fresh off a bye week and looking to win its first divisional matchup of the season. Oh, and if you need more reason to tune in, we're on Trey Hendrickson revenge game watch in his first contest against his old team.
2. Packers at Lions
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Current playoff odds | 66% | 80% |
With win | 80% | 87% |
With loss | 58% | 67% |
Another key division matchup sees the 3-2 Lions, coming off a bye, host the 4-2 Packers in a big opportunity for both. After a rocky start to the season, Green Bay has won three straight. Detroit, meanwhile, has alternated wins and losses all season. The Packers are 1-1 in division play; this is the Lions' first division game. SportsLine's projections like Detroit a lot, in part thanks to an easy schedule: The Lions still get to play the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Falcons and Titans this season.
3. Cowboys at Eagles
Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN, ABC (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Current playoff odds | 29% | 18% |
With win | 36% | 28% |
With loss | 16% | 11% |
This is not nearly as appetizing a matchup as it seemed in the preseason, but someone has to win the dreadful NFC East, and these are two of the four teams that can do so. The Cowboys are once again in prime time after a "Thursday Night Football" loss to the Buccaneers and a "Sunday Night Football" loss to the Packers, and they've lost five straight prime-time games overall. The Eagles, now led by backup quarterback Tanner McKee, are looking for something offensively, and perhaps it can happen against a struggling Cowboys defense. With the Commanders on bye and the Giants facing the Texans, this is a great opportunity for both teams.
4. Giants at Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Giants | Texans | |
Current playoff odds | 33% | 46% |
With win | 48% | 50% |
With loss | 28% | 31% |
Only one team -- the 1992 Chargers -- has started 0-4 and made the playoffs, but the Texans are making a push to join them. Houston has won two straight after that awful start, and a win Sunday would improve its postseason odds to essentially a coin flip. The Giants, meanwhile, lead the NFC East at 3-2-1, and in that struggling division, all wins are going to be important, regardless of who they come against.
5. Patriots at Bears
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
Current playoff odds | 65% | 54% |
With win | 77% | 61% |
With loss | 57% | 44% |
Here's another intra-conference matchup among the top five most important games this week. Both teams are 4-2 this season, yet neither leads its division. The Patriots are a game back of the 5-1 Bills, who are on bye this week, and the Bears are a game and a half behind the 5-0 Vikings. Simply keeping pace here will be the goal for both, though neither team's playoff chances would be knocked too far down with a loss.
