After starting the season 1-4, the Minnesota Vikings (6-5) have won five of their last six games to put themselves back into the NFC playoff picture. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs has  been able to continue the momentum after Kirk Cousins' season-ending Achilles injury. Now, Minnesota will host the Chicago Bears (3-8) on Monday Night Football to conclude Week 12 and will try to get back on the winning track after a 21-20 loss to the Broncos last week. The Bears suffered a devastating defeat of their own in Week 11, blowing a 12-point lead with less than three minutes to play against the Lions.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Minnesota is a three-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Vikings odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 43.5. Before you make any Vikings vs. Bears picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Bears vs. Vikings 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Vikings vs. Bears:

  • Bears vs. Vikings spread: Minnesota -3
  • Bears vs. Vikings over/under: 43.5 points
  • Bears vs. Vikings money line: Chicago +127, Minnesota -151
  • CHI: Bears are 9-14-1 ATS as underdogs since 2022
  • MIN: Vikings are 6-9 ATS in their past 15 games at home
  • Bears vs. Vikings picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Bears vs. Vikings live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Vikings can cover

With two games against the Lions in the season's final three weeks, the Vikings know they can stay in the NFL playoff picture if they keep winning. They have one of the league's best run defenses, so they can match Chicago's strength, and can pressure the passer. Minnesota is seventh in the NFL against the run (94 yards per game) and has 29 sacks. Danielle Hunter is tied for second in the league with 12 sacks. The Bears have 15 sacks while allowing 32, sixth-most in the league.

Quarterback Joshua Dobbs has excelled since joining the team following the season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins. Dobbs has 647 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, 131 yards on the ground, and three more TDs. T.J. Hockenson has become one of the NFL's top tight ends, leading the position with 736 yards on 75 receptions, fifth-most in the league. The Vikings are 7-3-1 against the spread this season and are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with the Bears. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Bears can cover

Bears starting quarterback Justin Fields returned to the starting lineup last week after missing more than a month with a thumb injury and his play was encouraging for the offense. He went 16 of 23 for 169 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 104 yards. It was his first 100-yard rushing game of the season and fifth of his career.

Fields' return helped unlock the Chicago running game and now the Bears will be hoping to lean on the ground attack again. They rank third in the league in rushing and first in run defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks 27th in rushing but has averaged 148.7 yards per game since Dobbs entered the lineup. The Bears will need to slow that attack down and control the line of scrimmage on Monday Night Football in order to cover the spread. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bears vs. Vikings picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting 51 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

So who wins Vikings vs. Bears on Monday Night Football, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Vikings vs. Bears spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.