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The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Atlanta Falcons at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is 13-1 overall and 5-1 at home, while Atlanta is 4-10 overall and 2-4 on the road. The Chiefs can clinch the AFC's first-round playoff bye with a win. The Falcons have lost three consecutive games. 

Kansas City is favored by 10.5 points in the latest Chiefs vs. Falcons odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 54. Before entering any Falcons vs. Chiefs picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 22-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning over $800. The model also enters Week 16 on an incredible 118-76 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Falcons. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Falcons vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Falcons spread: Chiefs -10.5
  • Chiefs vs. Falcons over-under: 54 points
  • Chiefs vs. Falcons money line: Atlanta +425 Kansas City -550

What you need to know about the Chiefs

The Chiefs scored a 32-29 win over the Saints this past Sunday. It was the ninth consecutive win for the AFC West champs. Patrick Mahomes passed for three TDs and 254 yards on 47 attempts in addition to picking up 37 yards on the ground. It was his 21st-career game with three-plus TD passes, tied for the second-most by a player in his first four seasons in NFL history. He has two-plus TD passes in six of his past seven games. Mahomes leads the NFL with 4,462 pass yards.

Ankle and hip injuries will keep Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of this week's game. Le'Veon Bell rushed for 62 yards and a TD last week and is expected to start at running back for Kansas City. Tyreek Hill is questionable with a hamstring injury. Travis Kelce is aiming for his eighth game in a row with eight-plus catches and is his fourth in a row with a TD catch. 

He is shooting for his fifth game in a row at home with 100-plus yards. Kelce leads all tight ends with 98 catches, 1,318 yards and is tied for the lead with 10 TDs. Other scenarios in which the Chiefs can clinch the bye include Pittsburgh or Buffalo losses. 

What you need to know about the Falcons

Meanwhile, the Falcons lost 31-27 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday. Atlanta was up 17-0 at the end of the first half but couldn't hold on to the lead. Matt Ryan passed for three TDs and 356 yards on 49 attempts. Ryan has the fourth-most games with 300-plus yards (68) since entering the NFL in 2008. 

He ranks third in the NFL with 4,016 passing yards and became the fifth quarterback in NFL history with 10 seasons of 4,000-plus yards. Ryan has 55,202 career passing yards, the most by a quarterback in 13 seasons since the beginning of his career in NFL history.

Julio Jones has not played since Week 13 because of a hamstring injury and will be out again this week. Calvin Ridley set career highs in receptions (10) and yards (163) and had a TD catch in Week 15. He is one of two wide receivers with seven games of 100-plus yards this season. Ridley ranks sixth in the NFL with a career-high 1,192 yards. Russell Gage had five receptions for 68 yards and a TD last week. He has career highs in receptions (59), yards (672) and TD catches (three) this season. 

How to make Chiefs vs. Falcons picks

The model has simulated Chiefs vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Falcons? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Chiefs spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 16 of the NFL season on an incredible 118-76 roll.