Closer look at the numbers reveals what's wrong with Eddie Lacy
Lacy said he doesn't know why he's been playing poorly this season, so we investigated what's behind his slow first half.
By
Jared Dubin
•
3 min read
Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy was officially demoted in favor of his former backup, James Starks, earlier this week by head coach Mike McCarthy. Lacy, one of the NFL's top running backs over the two seasons prior to this one (he had the seventh-most rushing yards during the 2013 and 2014 seasons and the fourth-most touchdowns), has struggled badly this year.
Asked whether his ankle (he's been dealing with an injury) or his weight is affecting his play, Lacy replied that it wasn't, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I honestly don't know what it is," Lacy said. "Definitely, I'm off to a different start. I'm not playing how I was the previous two years. Later on in the season, maybe it'll pick back up. But as of right now, this is just the move that is going to be.
So, if the issue with Lacy's performance isn't physical, what is it? Let's investigate.
On a surface level, we know that Lacy is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season, a step significantly down from the 4.6 he averaged last season. It's worth examining, though, how exactly he's gaining those yards as well.
| Eddie Lacy Rushing | ||||
| Year | YBCO/ATT | YCO/ATT | YBCO % | YCO % |
| 2014 | 1.84 | 2.82 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 2015 | 1.54 | 2.17 | 41.6% | 58.4% |
Thanks to the tracking from Pro Football Focus, we can divide Lacy's yards per carry into those before contact (YBCO) and after contact (YCO). As you can see in the chart above, Lacy is not faring quite as well in 2015 as he did in 2014 on either count.
His yards before contact per attempt average is down 0.3 yards, implying that at least some of his poor play (if we're judging by a percentage of yards per carry, then it's approximately one-third) is due to worse run blocking from the Green Bay offensive line. Indeed, the Packers have dropped from 13th to 25th in PFF's run blocking grades this season, and from 8th to 22nd in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards.
Lacy's yards after contact per carry average has taken an even steeper drop, though, indicating that Lacy himself shoulders even more of the blame. Last season, Lacy's 2.82 yards after contact average ranked as the third best among the 54 running backs that recorded at least 50 carries. This season, his 2.17 average ranks just 35th out of 47 such backs. He's not breaking tackles quite as often, seeing his average drop from one breaking tackle every 5.0 carries in 2014 to one every 9.2 carries in 2015.
Those drops have also contributed to a lack of long gains that push a yards per carry average higher. Last season, 18 of Lacy's 245 rushes went for at least 15 yards. That's 7.3 percent of his runs. This year, he's gained at least 15 yards on only four of 83 runs, or 4.8 percent. Not only that, but his long gainers aren't gaining quite as many yards. Lacy's 18 long runs last year averaged 21.4 yards per carry; this year that number is just 15.3 yards. His season long rush this year is only 16 yards. He had at least one run longer than 16 yards in nine different games last season.
Amazingly, the area where Lacy has struggled the most this season is the one where he arguably saw his most success last year: right up the middle. His runs between the guards on either side of the center averaged 5.13 yards per carry last season; that number is down to 3.28 per carry this year. (Considering Starks has seen his yards per carry increase from 3.57 to 4.30 on similar runs this season, that seems more like a Lacy issue than a T.J. Lang<span style=" data-canon="T.J. Lang" data-type="SPORTS_OBJECT_PLAYER" id="shortcode0">Corey Linsley–Josh Sitton issue.) His longest run between the guards in 2015 is just 8 yards. His longest run of the season (44 yards) came through the hole between Linsley and Sitton last year.
Lacy hasn't been getting quite the same quality of blocking as he did last season. He's not been quite as decisive in making cuts up the field. He's not breaking quite as many tackles and when he has, he's not been doing quite as much after the fact. All of that, plus more (like teams presumably not being quite as afraid of throwing an extra defender into the box without Jordy Nelson on the field) has contributed to his subpar first half of the season.
