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USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans are set to square off in an AFC battle on Sunday. The Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa (finger), leaving Jacoby Brissett to start. Miami has lost each of its last seven games and the Dolphins have struggled mightily against the Texans in recent years. In fact, Houston has won eight of its last nine meetings with the Dolphins. 

Miami is favored by 4.5-points in the latest Dolphins vs. Texans odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 45. Before entering any Texans vs. Dolphins picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 9 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-86 run on top-rated NFL picks that date back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Texans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Texans vs. Dolphins:

  • Dolphins vs. Texans spread: Dolphins -4.5
  • Dolphins vs. Texans over-under: 45 points

What you need to know about the Dolphins

Running back Myles Gaskin has been a lethal pass catcher out of the backfield, recording 19 receptions over the last four weeks. He's caught three touchdown passes in that four-game stretch, and he'll be heavily involved against the Texans on Sunday. The Texans are giving up 401.4 yards per game this season, which ranks 29th in the league.

Plus, Houston has lost each of its last six games on the road. Meanwhile, Miami is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games played in November. 

What you need to know about the Texans

The Texans have also not won since Week 1. Houston was down 38-0 at the end of the third quarter in the Week 8 loss to the Rams. Davis Mills was sacked five times and hit nine times. Tyrod Taylor, who has not played since Week 2 because of a hamstring injury, is expected to start on Sunday.  

Houston is worst in the league in touchdowns allowed, with 29 on the season. The Texans are 31st in the league in rushing at 76.1 yards per game. Christian Kirksey (thumb) is out for Sunday's game. 

How to make Dolphins vs. Texans picks

The model is leaning under on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Dolphins vs. Texans? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.