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Week 14 of the NFL season ends at Hard Rock Stadium with the Miami Dolphins hosting the New England Patriots in an AFC East clash. The Patriots are 10.5-point favorites on "Monday Night Football," down 1.5 from an open of 12.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be put up on the scoreboard, is 48.5, the same as where it opened. The total had dropped as low as 47 before rebounding.

Before you lock in your picks and bets for "Monday Night Football," you need to see what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has to say.

When favored New England played Oakland in Mexico City in Week 11, Oh told readers lay 6.5 points without thinking twice. The result: Patriots 33, Raiders 8 -- another easy cash.

Amazingly, that made Oh, the co-founder of Accuscore, 10-3 on Patriots games since the start of last season. His predictive model is in sync with Bill Belichick's team. Anyone who has followed his picks has been winning huge.

Part of his success: He's hyper-focused on the numbers. He specializes in sports simulations, projections and advanced statistical analysis, and his fantasy sports model was used by the three largest fantasy sites.

Now, Oh has examined every matchup, every injury and every angle in Patriots-Dolphins and locked in a strong pick. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Oh knows the spread was 17 when these teams met in Massachusetts recently. In the end, New England covered in a 35-17 victory.

The Patriots have covered in six straight games and won eight in a row outright. New England hasn't given up more than 17 points in a game during its streak.

QB Tom Brady's 26 touchdowns are the third most in the league, trailing only Carson Wentz (33) and Russell Wilson (29). Brady is third in yards (3,632) and No. 1 in QB rating (109.7). He's only thrown four interceptions the entire season.

But just because the trends favor the defending Super Bowl champs doesn't mean they'll cover a massive 11-point line on the road on Monday Night Football.

Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is suspended for this week after a late hit on Buffalo Bills defensive back Tre'Davious White last game. Gronkowski has 19 targets and two touchdowns the past two weeks and has found the end zone seven times this season. He's a big weapon the Pats will be missing.

And Monday's game is in South Florida, not in Foxborough like the first meeting two weeks ago. The Dolphins just held the Broncos to three field goals last week in Miami.

In the same Broncos game, Miami running back Kenyan Drake broke out, rushing for 120 yards and a score and adding three receptions for 21 yards. A strong Dolphins run game would keep Patriots quarterback Tom Brady off the field and slow New England's offense.

And the last time these two teams faced each other, the Patriots turned it over twice and Reshad Jones returned a fumble 14 yards for a score.

It's no surprise Oh is leaning Under on "Monday Night Football" given the high total, but what about the spread, which he has made his name picking?

Oh has a stronger pick than normal for Patriots-Dolphins, and it's for a reason you're not even thinking of. And SportsLine stat geek R.J. White, who's up almost $1,400 on $100 bets, agrees with him.

Will New England continue to cover the spread? Or will the Dolphins, who won as underdogs last week and nearly covered against the Patriots in Foxborough, keep it within the spread or win outright? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Patriots-Dolphins you need to be all over, all from the expert who's a blistering 10-3 on Patriots games, and find out.