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Some teams might already be eliminated, and their front offices are thinking about draft position, while others are resting starters in advance of the NFL playoffs, but every game on the Week 18 NFL schedule is a divisional game, and that means something to whoever winds up on the field. Bengals vs. Browns is an Ohio rivalry that dates back 55 years, and bragging rights will be on the line on Sunday when they tee it up in Paycor Stadium at 1 p.m. ET. Cincinnati has routed Miami and Arizona in back-to-back weeks, and Joe Burrow has thrown for 614 yards and six touchdowns in those wins as he settles back in after missing 10 weeks with a toe injury. The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Bengals stay motivated this week, projecting they cover the spread in 54% of simulations and making them core to our Week 18 NFL best bets at DraftKings. According to the latest NFL odds, the Bengals are favored by 7.5 points, while the over/under for total points scored is 46. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Week 18 NFL best bets for Sunday at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Bengals -7.5 vs. Browns (-108)
  • Lions money line vs. Bears (+130)
  • Under 36.5 points in Raiders vs. Chiefs (-105)

Bengals -7.5 vs. Browns (-108)

The Bengals could have very easily shut Joe Burrow down for the season as soon as they were eliminated from postseason contention given that he had surgery on the big toe of his push-off foot earlier this season. However, Burrow made it clear that his intention was to play and they've honored that request. As a result, Cincinnati has built some late-season momentum, outscoring the Dolphins and Cardinals 82-35 the last two weeks. Cleveland is also still putting in effort after upsetting the Steelers last week and Myles Garrett still needs a sack to set the NFL record, but the model is backing the Bengals' offense here.

Lions money line vs. Bears (+130)

These two teams have changed a lot since they met back in Week 2, with Chicago going on to win the division and Detroit eliminated and on a three-game losing streak. However, it's hard to set that result aside, as the Lions dominated the Bears 52-21. Ben Johnson has committed to playing his starters in an effort to lock up the No. 2 seed, but there will be some scoreboard watching going on and he could pull key personnel if the Eagles go down big early. Meanwhile, Dan Campbell isn't the type to go belly up and the model predicts that Detroit wins in 46% of simulations while these odds imply a 43% chance to win.

Under 36.5 points in Chiefs vs. Raiders (-105)

This is a justifiably low total with the Chiefs down to third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun and the Raiders actively in the tank to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. For those that do suit up for Las Vegas, the defensive gameplan should be a simple one -- stop Travis Kelce, who is likely to be force-fed in what could be a retirement game. Meanwhile, the Raiders could only manage 10 points against the lowly Giants last week and the Chiefs haven't scored more than 13 points in a month. Despite this jarring number, the model predicts that the Under hits in 63% of simulations.