Why NFL division winners automatically get a home playoff game and why it shouldn't change
Both the AFC North and NFC South are primed to have division winners who have been playing near .500 football all year long
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4 min read
The 2025 NFL season's final slate, Week 18, has one-and-a-half win-or-go-home games in each conference: the Carolina Panthers (8-8) at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) for the NFC South title and the Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) for the AFC North title. Even with a loss, the Panthers can clinch the NFC South if the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints.
These matchups mostly function as unofficial playoff games with the winner clinching their respective conference's No. 4 seed and first-round playoff while both losers' respective seasons will end just short of the postseason. Some may not like that two NFL division winners who will finish either at or just above .500 will be hosting a playoff game against the top wild card team in each conference that will have a better record than the home team they're playing against. That's the NFL's playoff format, and here's how it works and why it makes sense for professional football.
The four division winners in both the AFC and NFC earn a home playoff game and are seeded first through fourth based on overall record. The three non-division winners with the top records earn wild card spots and are ranked with seeds five through seven. Those three squads square off against division winners on the road in the wild card round of the postseason
Every division champion earns a home playoff game, no matter the division winner's record. The Detroit Lions did propose a rule change proposal for the playoffs to be seeded by overall record instead of by division champions this past offseason, but the withdrew it after it lacked league-wide support.
Here's how the 2025 playoff picture, entering Week 18, would change if winning a division no longer guaranteed opening-round home games. The AFC North and NFC South winners would both slide into the postseason as the seventh and final seeds and have to travel to their respective conference's No. 2 seed instead of hosting their respective conference's top wild card team. The 49ers and Rams, who are the loaded NFC West's current Nos. 2 and 3 teams, would rise to being top three seeds in the NFC as a whole.
2025 playoff seeding entering Week 18
*Division champion
| Seed | NFC under 2025 format | NFC if seeded only by record | AFC under 2025 format | AFC if seeded only by record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Seahawks (13-3) | Seahawks (13-3) | Broncos (13-3)* | Broncos (13-3)* |
2 | Bears (11-5)* | 49ers (12-4) | Patriots (13-3)* | Patriots (13-3)* |
3 | Eagles (11-5)* | Bears (11-5)* | Jaguars (12-4) | Jaguars (12-4) |
4 | Panthers (8-8) | Eagles (11-5)* | Steelers (9-7) | Texans (11-5) |
5 | 49ers (12-4) | Rams (11-5) | Texans (11-5) | Chargers (11-5) |
6 | Rams (12-4) | Packers (9-6-1) | Chargers (11-5) | Bills (11-5) |
7 | Packers (9-6-1) | Panthers (8-8) | Bills (11-5) | Steelers (9-7) |
Why divisions matter uniquely to the NFL
All 32 NFL teams can't play each other every season. The sport is too violent. Many teams limp into the postseason from a health perspective after completing the league's current 17-game slate. The NFL requires teams to play all three of their division opponents twice a year -- once at home and once away -- that means some teams that play in tougher divisions get penalized more than others with naturally harder schedules.
If divisions were to only exist for scheduling, what's the point of having them at all? A division champion earning at least one home playoff game makes sense because it means the best team is rewarded, no matter the circumstance, out of the four that play the most similar schedules. Without rewarding division winners with home games, what's to keep longstanding rivalries from mattering? The reward of the home playoff game is the driving factor for teams to actually care about winning the division beyond receiving a new hat and t-shirt.
How much has home-field advantage mattered in the 4-5 matchup when the lower seed has the better record?
Across the past two years, having the home field in the 4-5 matchup in which the top wild card team has had the better record has definitely matter with the division winner winning 4 of 5 such matchups since 2023.
Since the playoff format expanded to 14 teams in 2020, home field hasn't mattered as greatly with the No. 4 seed -- the division winner with the lesser record -- winning 5 of 8 such matchups this decade. That's a difference, but it's negligible.
Wild card games where lower seed had better record, since 2020 (start of 14-team format)
| Year | Division winner (record) | Wild-card team (record) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
2020 | Washington (7-9) | Buccaneers (11-5) | Buccaneers |
2022 | Jaguars (9-8) | Chargers (10-7) | Jaguars |
2022 | Buccaneers (8-9) | Cowboys (12-5) | Cowboys |
2023 | Texans (10-7) | Browns (11-6) | Texans |
2023 | Buccaneers (9-8) | Eagles (11-6) | Buccaneers |
2024 | Texans (10-7) | Chargers (11-6) | Texans |
2024 | Buccaneers (10-7) | Commanders (12-5) | Commanders |
| 2024 | Rams (10-7) | Vikings (14-3) | Rams |
No one cried that the Vikings should have had home-field advantage after the Rams' pass rush sacked Sam Darnold an NFL postseason record nine times last postseason. The same goes for the Chargers after they were curb stomped 32-12 in a game where Justin Herbert threw four interceptions in last year's wild card round. Last season's No. 1 seed, the Lions, lost in the NFC divisional round to a Washington squad that had to fight through the "injustice" of playing on the road in the wild card round against a division winner with a lesser record in last year's Buccaneers.
Homefield advantage does matter, which is why it's critical for division winners to get home games in their first playoff matchup. That will help uphold the integrity of the NFL's scheduling system and rivalries. Recent history also shows road teams with a superior overall record can breeze past a division champion on the road to go on to make a run. The 2024 Commanders reached the NFC Championship while doing so, and the 2020 Buccaneers won the Super Bowl after playing the entire NFC bracket on the road.
The NFL playoff system doesn't require adjustments. Buckle up for two mostly win-or-go-home division championship games in Week 18 as two delicious appetizers ahead of the postseason, which kicks off next week.
