NFL line movement for Week 18: Chargers-Broncos, Jets-Bills among games with biggest shifts
Some key personnel moves and changes in motivation lead to notable shifts in some lines for NFL Week 18

Keeping an eye on the news is always critical when wagering on sports, but it's rarely more necessary than entering NFL Week 18. With many games lacking real importance -- whether teams are eliminated from playoff contention or potentially getting players healthy for the postseason -- bettors need to be aware of what is motivating teams in NFL Week 18.
The two Saturday games feature teams with everything to play for, with Panthers vs. Buccaneers to decide the NFC South title and Seahawks vs. 49ers for the NFC West crown and the conference's top seed. The Denver Broncos will try to lock up the AFC's top seed in Chargers vs. Broncos, and some other teams are ready to capitalize if they slip up. That matchup is one of the games where motivation has vastly affected the betting lines, as the Chargers will sit quarterback Justin Herbert and some other starters with their playoff spot secure. Bills vs. Jets also is expected to be much different than the teams' Week 2 matchup, with Buffalo also likely to sit starters, including quarterback Josh Allen after he aggravated a foot injury last week.
Ravens vs. Steelers on Sunday Night Football also has high stakes, with the winner taking the AFC North title and the loser going home to watch the playoffs. Ravens two-time league MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson says he will return from a back injury that kept him out last week, and the Ravens are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings.
Here, we will break down the games that have seen the biggest shifts for NFL Week 18 since lines first opened, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chargers vs. Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Open: Broncos -7.5, O/U 39.5
Now: Broncos -13.5, O/U 37.5
This line was as low as -3 at some books, but the Chargers are using Week 18 to get healthy. Quarterback Justin Herbert, who had surgery on his non-throwing hand several weeks ago, is among those who will sit out. The Chargers will be shorthanded, but this is a lot of points, and if Denver gets a decent lead, it could rest some starters of its own. The model has the Chargers covering in 60% of the time in its simulations.
Jets vs. Bills (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Open: Bills -12.5, O/U 40.5
- Now: Bills -7.5, O/U 37.5
The Bills are likely to be the fifth or sixth seed in the AFC after their comeback against the Eagles came up short and their slim chance at the AFC East title evaporated. That means Buffalo will try to get healthy as they face the 3-13 Jets. Quarterback Josh Allen was hobbling on a bad foot late against the Eagles, but he will start and play in Week 18. The Bills are planning to rest some notable players on defense, however, which is part of why this line dropped. But the model still likes the Bills, and they are covering in 54% of its simulations.
Commanders vs. Eagles (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Open: Eagles -7.5, O/U 42.5
- Now: Eagles -4.5, O/U 38.5
There probably won't be many fireworks in this one, as the Eagles will be content to let the backups play against the 4-12 Commanders. It will likely be a clash of Eagles backup quarterback Tanner McKee against Commanders third-string journeyman Josh Johnson. The Eagles (11-5) can earn the NFC's No. 2 seed, so they'll go for the victory, but Washington might not put up too much fight. The SportsLine model is projecting the Eagles winning by 10 points and covering the spread in 62% of simulations.
Titans vs. Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
- Open: Jaguars -10.5, O/U 43.5
- Now: Jaguars -13.5, O/U 47.5
The Jaguars still have a lot to play for, with the AFC South title not yet secured and the chance at the conference's top seed slim but a possibility nonetheless. The Titans and rookie quarterback Cam Ward have been playing well lately, winning two of their past four games. The model has Jacksonville winning comfortably but the Titans covering the spread in 55% of simulations
Packers vs. Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
- Open: Vikings -6, O/U 37.5
- Now: Vikings -9.5, O/U 36.5
Both teams are really banged up and don't have a lot to play for Sunday, with Green Bay locked into the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs and the Vikings ready for the offseason. The Packers are likely to go with third-string quarterback Clayton Tune with Jordan Love and Malik Willis recovering from injuries. The defense also will consist of a lot of backups, but Minnesota doesn't have much incentive and it is a rivalry game, so the model has the Packers covering in 63% of simulations.
Lions vs. Bears (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Open: Bears -1.5, O/U 49.5
- Now: Bears -3, O/U 50.5
It's another NFC North rivalry matchup that both teams will be wanting to win regardless of the stakes. The Bears are trying to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC, while Detroit wants to finish its disappointing season on a high note. Unsurprisingly, it's going to be a cold one in the Windy City. The line shifted a bit based on Detroit's dismal performance last week, but the Lions are covering in 51% of the model's simuations.















