NFL odds, picks for Week 11: Advanced computer model loving Lions and Bears

The Packers and Seahawks played an extremely tight game on Thursday night, and the latest Week 11 NFL odds indicate there could be more thrilling matchups on the way as the race for the playoffs heats up. In fact, Vegas anticipates five games on the Week 11 NFL schedule will come down to a field goal or less, including tight NFL spreads like the Colts (-1.5) against the Titans and the Falcons (-3) against the Cowboys. Only one team is favored by more than a touchdown, as the Saints are 7.5-point home favorites over the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles after the line climbed as high as nine. With teams fighting for their playoff lives and plenty of marquee games to navigate on the NFL odds board, be sure to check out the Week 11 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLines advanced computer model before laying any of your own. 

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 11 on a blistering 10-0 run. For the season, it is now 24-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 72-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 98-48 this season, again ranking in the top 15 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 11 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 11 NFL picks the model loves: the Bears (-2.5) cover at home against the Vikings

Several trends point strongly toward Chicago in this matchup. The Bears have covered in three straight games, are 4-1 against the spread at home and 5-2 against the spread as favorites. Minnesota is a dismal 28th in the league in rushing, averaging just 91.7 yards.

According to the model, Chicago's second-ranked rush defense holds Minnesota's backs to well under 100 yards as the Bears cover in over 55 percent of simulations. That dominant defensive performance also helps the Under (44.5) hit 55 percent of the time. 

Another one of the Week 11 NFL predictions from the model: the Lions cover as four-point underdogs against the Panthers. 

After getting humiliated by the Steelers last week, the Panthers visit a Lions team that's in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Despite being in the NFC playoff picture with a 6-3 record, Cam Newton and company have struggled on the road. In fact, Carolina has won only one away game this year, a four-point victory at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. 

Meanwhile, the Lions have won two of their last three home games at Ford Field, including convincing victories over the Patriots (26-10) and Packers (31-23). The model is calling for a big day for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, saying he'll throw for 270 yards. Even with wide receiver Marvin Jones sidelined with a knee injury, back the Lions with confidence. They are covering the spread in over 55 percent of simulations.

The model also has made the call on the huge Chiefs vs. Rams "Monday Night Football" showdown, and is projecting that a Super Bowl contender will get a huge scare on the road. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (+4, 49)
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 49.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 44)  
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 50.5)
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (+3, 42)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-3, 53)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 46)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5)
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5, 41)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 56)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 63)

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