The Dallas Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record this year, but don't tell that to oddsmakers, who have made them a big favorite for Thursday's game against the 8-3 Buffalo Bills. 

In the early odds for Week 13, Dallas has opened as a 7.5-point favorite over a Bills team that currently has the third best record in the AFC. It's a big number for the Cowboys to cover, especially when you consider the fact that Dallas is 0-4 this year against teams that have a winning record. Not to mention, when it comes to Thanksgiving games, the Cowboys have actually been one of the worst teams you can bet on over the past few years. Since 2011, the Cowboys have gone 1-7 against the spread (ATS) in Thanksgiving games (The Cowboys are also 1-6 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record). 

If you're thinking about laying down some money on the NFL to add a little bit of non-family drama to your Turkey Day, but you don't want to bet against the Cowboys, here are two other Thanksgiving trends that might help you decide which way to bet. 

  • The first trend has to do with the fact that the favored team has been dominating on Thanksgiving over the past three years. Since 2016, favored teams have gone 9-0 straight-up and 8-1 ATS. Basically, if you had taken the favored teams in a three-team Thanksgiving parlay in each of the past three seasons, you would have made a major profit. 
  • The other interesting trend has to do with the over/under. Since 2014, the under has hit in every primetime game played on Thanksgiving. That's five straight games where the under has hit (The under has hit six out of eight times since the Thanksgiving night game was introduced in 2011). The primetime game this year is Saints at Falcons, which has an over/under of 49.5 points. Those two teams were also the primetime game last year and they combined for 48 points in a game where the over/under was 61.5. 

Alright, that's enough Turkey Day talk, let's get to the rest of this week's odds. 

Week 12 is almost in the books and there's a lot to go over. Fortunately Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough are here to break everything down on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen below and be sure to subscribe right here for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.

Oh, and if you're thinking about laying any money on this week's slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 13, make sure to click here. 

Alright, now let's really get to the odds. 

NFL Week 13 early odds

(All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted. All betting trends reflect regular season games only)

Bills (8-3) at Cowboys (6-5), Thursday

Opening line: Cowboys, -7.5

As we mentioned above, the Cowboys have not been a safe bet in Thanksgiving games, going 1-7 ATS since 2011. The one cover came last year when they beat the Redskins 31-23 as a 7-point favorite. That 1-7 mark includes an 0-3 ATS record against AFC teams on Thanksgiving Day since 2011. That being said, the Cowboys actually seem to play well when they're favored by seven or more points as they've gone 9-1 straight-up and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 games where they've been favored by a touchdown or more. However, we should probably point out that the one loss came this year to another AFC East team (the Jets). As for the Bills, they're 5-20 straight-up in the past 25 games where they've been an underdog of seven or more points. Two things to like about the Bills though, is that they've won three of four against NFC teams and are 7-3-1 ATS on the season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. The Bills are also 5-0-1 ATS in their past six November games. 

Bears (5-6) at Lions (3-7-1), Thursday

Opening line: PK

This series hasn't been going well for the Lions, who have lost three straight to the Bears, and gone 0-3 ATS in those games. The Lions have generally struggled to cover in games against the Bears, going just 2-6-2 ATS in the past 10 games that have been played between these two teams. The Lions have also been struggling at home, going 3-7 both straight-up and ATS in their past 10 games at Ford Field. Oh, and the Lions are 0-6 ATS in their past six games. As for the Bears, they're not exactly a safe bet either. Going into Week 13, Chicago is 3-8 ATS on the season, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. 

Saints (9-2) at Falcons (3-8), Thursday

Opening line: Saints, -7 

Back in Week 10, the Falcons pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the 2019 season when they beat the Saints 26-9 as a 14-point underdog. That win actually marks the only time the Falcons have won a game since 2010 as an underdog of seven or more points. In games where the other team is favored by a touchdown or more, the Falcons have gone 1-9 straight-up (6-4 ATS). As for the Saints, they're 8-1 straight-up in their past nine games and 7-2 ATS. One odd thing about that Saints is that they've actually been prone to upsets when they're favored big, as they've gone just 2-3 straight-up in the past five games where they've been favored by seven or more points. 

Jets (4-7) at Bengals (0-11)

Opening line: Jets, -4 

This game is pitting one of the NFL's worst home teams against one of the league's worst road teams, so bet at your own peril. On the Bengals end, they're 1-8 straight-up in their past nine home games, and they haven't been much better against the spread, going 2-7. As for the Jets, they've been one of the worst road teams in football over the past few years. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Jets are 4-17 straight-up on the road and 7-13-1 ATS. 

Titans (6-5) at Colts (6-5)

Opening line: Colts, -3 

If there's one team the Colts are glad to be playing this week, it's almost certainly the Titans, and that's because Indy has dominated them over the past decade. Since 2009, these two teams have played 21 times and the Colts have gone 18-3 straight-up in those games (13-6-2 ATS), which includes a 19-17 Colts win back in Week 2 when Indy covered as a three-point underdog. As for the Titans, they're almost never a safe bet on the road, going just 5-10 straight-up in their past 15 road games. The Titans are even worse in road games against divisional opponents, going 3-13 both straight-up and ATS since 2014.

Eagles (5-6) at Dolphins (2-9)

Opening line: Eagles, -7.5 

If you thought the Dolphins were bad, it might be hard to believe that they've somehow been even worse against NFC teams. In their past eight games against the NFC, the Dolphins have gone just 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 ATS. The Eagles are basically the reverse of that, going 8-2 straight-up in their past 10 games against AFC teams and 6-4 ATS (4-1 ATS in their past five). The Dolphins might not win this game, but don't be shocked if they cover as they're 3-1 ATS on the season when they're an underdog of seven or more points (1-3 straight-up). As for the Eagles, they're 1-4 ATS in the past five games where they were favored by a touchdown or more (4-1 straight-up).

Packers (8-3) at Giants (2-9)

Opening line: Packers, -7.5

By the time this game kicks off, the Giants will have gone two full months without winning a game. Since Oct. 1, the Giants are 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 ATS. The Giants have also been a total disaster at home going 3-10 straight-up and 2-10-1 ATS at MetLife Stadium since the beginning of the 2018 season. As for the Packers, they've won and covered in their past four road games that weren't played in the state of California, and this game isn't being played in California. 

Browns (5-6) at Steelers (6-5)

Opening line: Steelers, -1.5 

Seventeen days after these two teams took part in the helmet fight heard around the world, the Browns and Steelers will be meeting again, only this time, Myles Garrett won't be on the field for Cleveland and Maurkice Pouncey won't be on the field for Pittsburgh. Although the Browns won and covered last time around, the Steelers have absolutely dominated this series, going 16-4-1 straight-up over the past 10 years. The Steelers have also won 15 straight against the Browns in Pittsburgh, with Cleveland's last win coming in 2003. That being said, the Browns have done a good job of covering against the Steelers, going 4-1-1 in the past six meetings between these two teams. Oh, and one thing to keep in mind about this game is that the Steelers haven't announced who the starting quarterback will be. During the Steelers' 16-10 win over the Bengals, Mason Rudolph got benched for Devlin Hodges in the second half.

Redskins (2-9) at Panthers (5-6)

Opening line: Panthers, -9.5 

If the Panthers are great at one thing, it's winning games they're supposed to win. Since 2005, the Panthers have gone 25-1 straight-up in games where they're favored by seven or more points. They've also gone an impressive 19-6-1 ATS in those games. Basically, betting on the Redskins to pull off the upset is probably something you don't want to do this week. If there is one thing that might scare you away from the Panthers, it's the fact that they've been struggling at home, going just 2-6 straight-up in their past eight games (3-5 ATS). 

Buccaneers (4-7) at Jaguars (4-7)

Opening line: Jaguars, -3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heading to a city where they've never won a game. Since the Jags entered the league in 1995, the Bucs have gone 0-3 straight-up in Jacksonville. Of course, the Bucs seem to be the only NFC team that can't win there, because the Jags have struggled against every other team in that conference. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Jaguars are an ugly 3-15 both straight-up and ATS against NFC teams. That total includes losses this year to both the Saints and Panthers (They didn't cover in either game). It's probably also worth noting that the Buccaneers are 3-8 ATS on the season, which is tied with the Bears for the worst mark in the NFL. 

49ers (10-1) at Ravens (8-2)

Opening line: Ravens, -4.5 

The Ravens have been mostly unstoppable this year, but if they do have one weakness, it seems to be playing NFC teams at home. In their past eight home games against NFC teams, the Ravens have gone 1-7 ATS (4-4 straight-up). The good news for the Ravens though is that the 49ers are arguably worse when it comes to playing AFC teams on the road. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the 49ers have gone 2-9 straight-up in road games against the opposite conference, and one of those wins came against the currently 0-11 Bengals this year, so it's hard to give them much credit for that. One other thing to note is that the 49ers haven't won a game in the eastern time zone against a team with a winning record since 2012. 

Rams (6-4) at Cardinals (3-7-1)

Opening line: Rams, -3.5 

Since hiring Sean McVay in 2017, the Rams have been absolutely perfect against the Cardinals, going 4-0 both straight-up and ATS. This game will be in Arizona, where the Cardinals don't seem to have much of a home-field advantage. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Cards have gone 2-10-1 at home (6-7 ATS). The Cardinals have also lost five straight divisional games dating back to last season. As for the Rams, they're 9-3 straight-up and 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games against NFC West teams. 

Chargers (4-7) at Broncos (3-8)

Opening line: PK

The Broncos have been an absolute disaster at home recently, going just 3-8 straight up in their past 11 games (5-6 ATS). On the other hand, the Chargers have been one of the most reliable road teams in the NFL over the past 13 months. Since October 2018, the Chargers have gone 8-2-1 ATS in road games and 8-3 straight-up. As for the Broncos, they're just 3-10 both straight-up and ATS in their past 13 games against divisional opponents. 

Raiders (6-5) at Chiefs (7-4)

Opening line: Chiefs, -10 

Welcome to the one week of the season where Andy Reid is pretty much a lock to win. Reid has been nearly unbeatable off a bye in his career (17-3 straight-up), so it might not be too smart to bet on the Raiders to pull off the upset. Also, let's not forget that Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since 2015, the Chiefs have gone 24-2 straight up against divisional opponents and 19-7 ATS. That total includes going 11-2 against the Raiders the past 13 times these two teams have played (9-4 ATS). Another factor that's not helping the Raiders is that they've been absolutely horrible on the road, going 2-14 straight-up and 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games played away from Oakland.

Patriots (10-1) at Texans (7-4)

Opening line: Patriots, -3.5 

If there's one team that Bill O'Brien hasn't been able to figure out how to beat, it's the Patriots. Since O'Brien was hired by the Texans in 2014, the former Patriots assistant has gone 0-5 against New England, which includes four regular season losses and one playoff loss. In those five games, the Texans have gone 1-4 ATS. The Texans have also been struggling to cover at home, going just 1-4 ATS in their past five games at NRG Stadium. The Patriots aren't usually a team you want to bet against, but if you have to bet against them, doing it in a road game is probably your best shot of winning. In their past 10 road games against AFC teams, the Patriots are 5-5 straight-up and 4-6 ATS. 

Vikings (8-3) at Seahawks (9-2), Monday

Opening line: Seahawks, -3 

If there's one team you never want to bet against at home in primetime, it's the Seattle Seahawks. Since Pete Carroll was hired in 2010, the Seahawks have gone an impressive 18-2 straight-up in primetime home games, and they've done almost just as well against the spread, going 15-4-1 ATS in those games. Also, it's probably worth noting that Russell Wilson has never lost to the Vikings, going 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS in his career. As for the Vikings, it they've had one weakness this season, it's playing on the road. The team is 3-3 this year when they leave Minnesota and has gone 4-6 straight-up in their past 10 road games. The Vikings actually played a Monday night game in Seattle last December with the Seahawks covering as a three-point favorite in a 21-7 win.