NFL Week 16 betting power ratings: Broncos elite, Packers sink without Parsons plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 16 matchup in the NFL
The best team in the NFL right now is the Los Angeles Rams, and the second-best team is the Seattle Seahawks. That much remains the same from our betting power ratings last week, though the gap between the two has widened after the Seattle offense and Sam Darnold had their third rough outing in a five-game stretch.
Everything beyond that among the above-average teams is up for debate. I've finally relented and placed the Broncos in the next tier after an impressive win against the Packers that saw Bo Nix spread the ball around (and not just around the line of scrimmage), and whatever iteration of the Denver offense that looked like it couldn't throw past the sticks that existed in the middle of the season appears gone now. I'd make the Broncos a pick 'em on a neutral field against the Bills and have those two teams favored against any other team besides the two top-tier NFC West squads.
I've slotted the Patriots in behind that group, and I think they gave the Bills a much better fight than a lot of people expected. Now we'll see if they can come back mentally from letting a 21-0 lead slip away in a game that would've secured the division and put them on track for the No. 1 seed. It doesn't get any easier this week with a trip to Baltimore in the cards, though I'm surprised the line is +/-3 in some places early in the week since I'm not sure beating up on the Bengals means the Ravens have fixed their issues.
The next tier has six teams in it, but I'm giving two of them a slight edge. I think the Lions' offense is good enough to overcome the injuries in the secondary against most opponents, but it'll be hard for them to keep up with a team like the Rams, as we saw last week.
The Texans' offense seems to be hitting a new level, though part of that may come down to facing the Cardinals last week, and since we know their defense is elite, I'm keeping them within a point of the Broncos. I'm also willing to lay however many points I have to against a Raiders team that is easily in last place in these betting ratings.
I'll have several more spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 16 power ratings
| Team | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| SEA | 6 | 6.5 | 6 | 6 | 5.5 |
| DEN | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 |
| BUF | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| NE | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | 4 |
| HOU | 3.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
| DET | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 5.5 |
| GB | 3 | 5 | 4.5 | 4 | 4 |
| PHI | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| JAC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| SF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| LAC | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL | 1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 4 | 5 |
| CHI | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 |
| MIN | -1 | -3 | -6 | -3 | -2 |
| CIN | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | -5.5 |
| MIA | -2.5 | -2 | -3.5 | -4 | -4 |
| CAR | -2.5 | -2 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| KC | -2.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| ATL | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3 | -3 | -5 |
| ARI | -4.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -3 | -2.5 |
| NO | -4.5 | -4.5 | -7 | -6.5 | -5.5 |
| IND | -4.5 | -5 | 2.5 | 5 | 6 |
| WAS | -4.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| NYG | -5 | -3.5 | -4 | -2.5 | -3 |
| CLE | -7.5 | -4.5 | -6 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| TEN | -8 | -8.5 | -9 | -8.5 | -9 |
| NYJ | -9 | -8.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -9 |
| LV | -10 | -7 | -7 | -6 | -5.5 |
I've dropped the Packers two points after the Micah Parsons injury, and I think it's fair to have them alongside the Eagles, 49ers and Jaguars, all of whom move up a point even if it's tough to read much into any of those teams posting easy wins in matchups where the market expected them to post easy wins. The ratings adjustment is more about keeping them closer to the Patriots, Texans and Lions than our next tier.
I bumped the Chargers, Ravens and Bears all up a half point to put them midway between our Packers-Eagles tier and the dead-average zero rating. There are still concerns about the Chargers' offense, but Justin Herbert should get healthier week by week, and if he's playing well, it can mitigate some of the offensive line issues. The Ravens avenged an ugly Thanksgiving loss by shutting out the Bengals, and if they can look that good this week against the Patriots we'll have to think about starting to move them up towards the second tier.
The Bears' defense did a great job last week, and while it came against the Browns, that team moved the ball easily the week prior. They need to win the rematch against the Packers this week to legitimize themselves as a team that deserves a better rating than this. The Steelers are hanging around just below that tier, and I think they looked good enough on Monday to keep them above my dead average teams, the Cowboys and Bucs.
It's been a wild ride for the Vikings, who were getting historically bad play from J.J. McCarthy as of two weeks ago before legitimately good performances against an awful Commanders defense and a better Cowboys unit, though he's still not clicking with Justin Jefferson for whatever reason. If he's actually at the level he's shown the last two weeks, this is an above-average squad due to the quality of its defense. For now, we'll keep them slightly below average.
Most of our remaining teams aside from the Panthers and Colts will battle motivation factors moving forward. Carolina is one of the more Jekyll and Hyde teams in the league, and any time I start to move them toward average they have a stinker to keep them among teams like the Bengals and Dolphins that they should be better than. I'm sticking the Chiefs in this group as well without Patrick Mahomes, as in theory their defense and a solid backup QB should make them competitive but I worry about motivation after their year run of playing football deep into January or beyond is now over.
The Colts' defense gave them a chance to win in Philip Rivers' return, but the 44-year-old looked every bit his age trying to throw the ball downfield more than a few yards. Even if the defense continues to play well, I can't put them at the level of a team like the Falcons, and good defense plus Rivers' intangibles only go so far. They're not a bottom-five team, but they're close.
Full Week 16 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | SEA | PK | PK | +0.5 | Critical game for Darnold amidst slump |
| PHI | WAS | +5.5 | +6.5 | +6 | |
| GB | CHI | +3.5 | +1.5 | -1 | First game was close, now no Parsons |
| BUF | CLE | +8.5 | +10 | +9 | |
| KC | TEN | +11 | +3.5 | +3.5 | Motivation could be issue for Chiefs |
| CIN | MIA | +1.5 | +1.5 | -3 | |
| LAC | DAL | -2.5 | -2 | +0.5 | |
| NYJ | NO | -3.5 | -4.5 | -6 | |
| TB | CAR | +1.5 | +3 | +0.5 | Market very high on Bucs despite skid |
| MIN | NYG | +1.5 | +3 | +3 | |
| JAC | DEN | -2.5 | -3 | -4.5 | |
| ATL | ARI | -1.5 | +2.5 | -1 | |
| LV | HOU | -12.5 | -14.5 | -14.5 | |
| PIT | DET | -6.5 | -7 | -4 | Huge number with Lions' DB injuries |
| NE | BAL | -2.5 | -3 | +0.5 | Does one good week fix Ravens? |
| SF | IND | +6 | +6 | +6 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home-field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an auto play, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
