NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Jay Biggerstaff JB / USA TODAY Sports

Is this the year of the underdog? Through the first five weeks of the 2022 season, dogs are covering 61% of their games which is the best mark since 2004 over this stretch. Back then, I was just an 11-year-old preteen hoping that my Red Sox would break "The Curse of the Bambino" and win a World Series. All these years later, I'm trying to break what has felt like a cursed start to the year in our betting corner of the internet as I'm 9-14-2 in my locks of the week. 

To do that, I'll be leaning into the underdog theme that has seemingly taken over the NFL this season as four of the five picks for my locks of the week are getting points heading into their Week 6 matchups.  

2022 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 9-14-2
ATS: 32-45-3
ML: 42-38

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Bills at Chiefs

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS. Stream on Paramount+ (free one month trial)

A rematch of their epic divisional round showdown is on deck this week and this could very well be an AFC Championship preview. These two teams have the best odds to win the Super Bowl this season and Josh Allen (+200) and Patrick Mahomes (+450) are No. 1 and No. 2 in the MVP odds, respectfully.

For this matchup on Sunday, Kansas City getting a field goal feels a little too generous from the oddsmakers. The lookahead had this game as a pick'em, but jumped considerably to Bills -2.5 before K.C. even kicked off its "Monday Night Football'' matchup against the Raiders. Was Buffalo's dominating win over Pittsburgh so impressive that it moved the needle this dramatically? The Chiefs at home in this setting will be a much more difficult task and Mahomes has been superb in this matchup, owning a 3-1 SU record over Allen. This will be the first time that Mahomes has been an underdog at home, so this is a bit of uncharted territory, but he's played well as a dog overall. The Chiefs QB is 7-0-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, including playoffs. 

Projected score: Chiefs 27, Bills 24
The pick: Chiefs +3

Panthers at Rams

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: Fox. Streaming: fuboTV

Carolina pulled the plug on the Matt Rhule era, firing the head coach after just two and a half seasons. Despite the coaching turnover (defensive coordinator Phil Snow and assistant special teams coach Ed Foley were also fired), this could be a nice rebound spot for the Panthers. In these situations, teams do get a little boost the following game and Carolina now faces a Rams team that has struggled mightily to begin the season. Offensively, L.A.'s 4.8 yards per play average is tied for the lowest in the NFL and they are pressuring the quarterback on just 24% of plays, which ranks 31st in the NFL. P.J. Walker will be starting for the injured Baker Mayfield and Walker is 2-0 SU in the only two starts of his career. Given the developments in Carolina and the sluggish start to the season for L.A., this is a good spot to take the points. 

Projected score: Rams 27, Panthers 17
The pick: Panthers +10.5

Patriots at Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS. Stream on Paramount+ (free one month trial)

Bailey Zappe may be capturing the hearts of those in Foxborough, but it's the defense that truly kept this team afloat in Week 5 in their shutout win against the Lions. So far, New England's defense has shown shutdown ability and ranks ninth in the NFL in DVOA. Not only do the Patriots have a high-level defense, but Bill Belichick is extremely familiar with Jacoby Brissett, who he drafted back in 2016. 

Mac Jones may also be healthy enough to play in this game, which will likely move this line below the field goal mark if/when that becomes official. This will also be an opportunity for Rhamondre Stevenson to explode on the ground with Damien Harris sidelined. Cleveland's run defense ranks 32nd in the NFL in DVOA. 

To recap, we have Bill Belichick getting points with a shutdown defense and a capable back going against a horrible run defense? Yes, please! 

Projected score: Patriots 24, Browns 21
The pick: Patriots +3

Buccaneers at Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox. Streaming: fuboTV

As I've said on CBS Sports HQ and wherever else they'll put a microphone/camera in front of me, the Steelers put Kenny Pickett in a tough spot. After opting for Mitchell Trubisky to begin the season after what I felt to be a tie in their summer QB battle, the first-round rookie has his first two starts against the Bills and now the Buccaneers. Not the easiest landing spots, to say the least. 

While Pickett has played well, I don't believe he'll be able to cover here, similar to what we saw last week when he was spotted 14 points and still couldn't cover. Tom Brady has won 12 straight starts against rookie quarterbacks and has historically played well against the Steelers. Brady is 11-4 ATS in his career against Pittsburgh (including playoffs) and has a lifetime passer rating of 112.2. Yes, Tampa Bay's offense has struggled a bit to begin the season, but you can chalk that up to injuries at the skill positions. I don't believe Pittsburgh will be able to apply the pressure on Tom Brady to alter his game, especially without T.J. Watt. 

Projected score: Buccaneers 28, Steelers 17
The pick: Buccaneers -8

Ravens at Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS. Stream on Paramount+ (free one month trial)

The Giants have been the Cinderella story of the 2022 season, in my books. While I knew the Brian Daboll hire was the correct call, I didn't think he'd have them at 4-1 through the first five weeks. He's pulling all the right strings and has Daniel Jones playing serviceable football under center. Now, they get a Ravens team that is fresh off a game-winning field goal against the Bengals on "Sunday Night Football" but they weren't as impressive as that win sounds. 

Lamar Jackson has been in a passing slump over the past two weeks, owning a 67.5 passer rating (sixth-worst in the NFL in that span). This week, he'll face Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who served as Baltimore's DC from 2018-21, so he has quite the in-depth knowledge of Jackson. New York is also 3-0 SU as an underdog this season. 

I believe this is a field-goal game, so taking the five points is the play here. 

Projected score: Ravens 24, Giants 21
The pick: Giants +5

Rest of the bunch

Commanders at Bears
Projected score: Bears 23, Commanders 20
The pick: Bears PK

49ers at Falcons
Projected score: 49ers 24, Falcons 17
The pick: 49ers -5.5

Jets at Packers
Projected score: Packers 27, Jets 21 
The pick: Jets +7

Jaguars at Colts
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Colts 20
The pick: Jaguars +2.5

Vikings at Dolphins
Projected score: Vikings 27, Dolphins 21
The pick: Vikings -3

Bengals at Saints
Projected score: Bengals 28, Saints 24
The pick: Bengals -1.5

Cardinals at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 27
The pick: Seahawks +3

Cowboys at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 27, Cowboys 23 
The pick: Cowboys +6

Broncos at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 27, Broncos 21
The pick: Chargers -5