Packers at 49ers picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for Thursday Night Football in Week 9
Both Green Bay and San Francisco will be limited heading into the Week 9 opener
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5 min read
The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will kick off Week 9 in the NFL when these two NFC squads go head-to-head on Thursday Night Football at Levi's Stadium. While this game will be played, there was some doubt throughout the week after both clubs dealt with a number of COVID-19 issues earlier in the week.
After Packers running back A.J. Dillon tested positive, Jamaal Williams was one of two players considered a close-contact and has also been ruled out leaving Green Bay's backfield extremely thin, especially if Aaron Jones (groin, questionable) is sidelined. As for the 49ers, the receiver unit has been erased after Kendrick Bourne tested positive for COVID-19 which made Deebo Samuel along with Brandon Aiyuk inactive after being deemed close contacts. San Francisco also placed starting left tackle Trent Williams on the reserve/COVID list for this game.
While both teams will be limited, the show will go on with no new positive results to speak of as of Thursday morning. That allows us to dive into all the betting angles for this matchup, including the spread, Over/Under total, along with some of our favorite player props for the night. We'll also give you some insight into how this line moved throughout the week.
All NFL odds courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Nov. 5 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
TV: FOX/NFLN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
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Packers at 49ers
This number has dramatically risen over the course of the week. After opening at Packers -2.5 on Sunday, the number has ballooned to Packers -7.5 as of Thursday morning. It started to jump on Tuesday when it leaped to 5.5 and continued to climb through the week. That has to do with a number of factors. Along with the COVID-19 situations that were mentioned above, the 49ers also lost starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and star tight end George Kittle due to injury. Not having those two impact players had the public running to throw cash on the Packers, driving this spread higher.
The 49ers simply don't have the horses to keep up with Green Bay here. Not only will the Niners miss George Kittle in the passing game, but he's also a key factor in how they run the football, averaging 1.25 more yards per rush with him on the field vs. off. Nick Mullens performed well against Seattle under duress, but I don't seem him going toe-to-toe with Aaron Rodgers, who has covered 75% of his Thursday games in his career. Even with the possibility of a Land of Misfit Toys backfield, the Packers offense has the ability to build a sizable lead early. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is 3-0 ATS against the Packers in his career, but that undefeated run will come to an end here.
The pick: Packers -7.5.
Over/Under 48.5
Similar to the spread, there was a lot of movement with the total for this matchup. It opened at 51 and has taken a nosedive, falling every single day leading up to Thursday and currently sitting at 48.5. Clearly, the public doesn't see Nick Mullens being able to put up enough points to keep up with Rodgers and have this game turn into a shootout.
The best hope the 49ers have of putting up chunks of points is on the ground. In the playoffs last year, Raheem Mostert ran for 220 yards and four touchdowns against this Packers defense while Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight passes. Kyle Shanahan will likely try to follow a similar game script but will be doing so with Nick Mullens as his quarterback and a combination of Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty. I doubt that combination will put together a similar performance, which eliminates San Francisco's ability to drive this total higher. Packers get up and try to bleed this game out.
The pick: Under 48.5.
Player props
Aaron Rodgers
O/U 26.5 completions
O/U 37.5 pass attempts
O/U 279.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over -220)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over +170)
O/U 37.5 rushing yards
While I expect to see Aaron Rodgers have some success through the air against a 49ers secondary that ranks in the middle of the road in pass defense efficiency, he has only dropped back to pass over this number twice and both were against the Vikings. The backfield will be limited without Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon, but Aaron Jones is still questionable. If he plays, that's even more incentive to hit this Under at -120.
Nick Mullens
O/U 19.5 completions
O/U 31.5 pass attempts
O/U 211.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over +140)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over -150)
I don't mind hitting the Over on Mullens' passing yards total here at -115. The new 49ers quarterback is averaging 271.5 passing yards in the two games he's started for San Francisco this year and is facing a Packers secondary that ranks 25th in the league in efficiency.
Other props to consider
JaMycal Hasty total rushing yards: Over 67.5 (-115). The Packers run defense is a real weakness for Matt LaFleur and the 49ers have never been shy at pounding the rock. Hasty is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt this season and with more carries should get over this total.
Ross Dwelley anytime touchdown (+200). Even if Jordan Reed makes a return off IR for this game, I like Dwelley to see some extended work and possibly even find the end zone for a second-straight contest. In his previous two starts for San Fran this year, the tight end has five receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown.
Robert Tonyan total receptions: Over 3.5 (-120). Tonyan is averaging just 4.5 targets a game this season but is coming off a Week 8 showing where Aaron Rodgers looked his way even times. With the tight end owning a 85.2 reception percentage, I expect that volume to increase, especially in short-yardage situations with the running game limited.
Davante Adams total receiving yards: Over 78.5 (-115). I'm not letting Adams' 53 yards in Week 8 scare me. He was targeted by Rodgers 11 times and scored three (!) touchdowns last week. With that type of volume, there's plenty of opportunities for him to go over 100 yards receiving in this contest.
