Las Vegas Raiders v New England Patriots
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There's been a lot of talk around New England about paths. Specifically, paths that will get the 4-5 Patriots, who have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, into the playoffs. As things stand heading into Week 11, Bill Belichick's club has a 21% chance of gaining a postseason berth, according to the projection model constructed by FiveThirtyEight. If the season ended today, however, they'd be on the outside looking in of the playoff picture, sitting as the 10th best team in the conference. The Browns, Titans, Ravens, Dolphins, and Raiders, who are all 6-3 on the season, make up the non-division leaders that currently have a better position than the Pats. Essentially, New England is fighting with five other clubs for three open playoff spots, assuming that the Buffalo Bills don't collapse and give away the AFC East. 

While there are likely a number of different avenues for the Patriots to squeak in, none likely come without winning the rest of their remaining games within the AFC East. Under the path that we'll highlight in a moment, just a single loss within the division, one that they've previously dominated for the better part of two decades, boots them out of the postseason conversation entirely. 

First, let's look at New England's remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Cardinals, at Chargers, at Rams, at Miami, vs. Bills, vs. Jets.

Of course, it'd be a bit foolish to just slap wins across these remaining games and call it a day, but the realistic record the Patriots should be striving for is 9-7. They can get there by sweeping the rest of the AFC East -- which is no small task -- along with beating the Texans in Week 11 and Chargers in Week 13. The Rams and Arizona are far superior teams so it seems unrealistic to go through a scenario where they come away with wins there. Outside of those two opponents, wins the rest of the way are doable. 

That said, this is only half the equation. 

For this specific path to spit out a playoff appearance for Bill Belichick, you'd also need Las Vegas, Miami, and Tennessee to go 3-4 the rest of the season. Under this model, we have the Raiders losing vs. Chiefs (Week 11), at Falcons (Week 12), vs. Colts (Week 14), and vs. the Dolphins (Week 16). The Dolphins are upset by the Bengals in Week 13, and then lose vs. Chiefs (Week 14), vs. Patriots (Week 15), and at Buffalo (Week 17). Finally, Tennessee loses games to the Ravens in Baltimore (Week 11), Colts in Indy (Week 12), Browns at home (Week 13), and at the Packers (Week 16). 

While this is clearly a bit of a stretch, it's simply illustrating a path for New England to reach the playoffs and one that is not totally out of the realm of possibility. Sure, the Bengals upset over Miami is admittedly the biggest reach of this scenario, but that's where Bill Belichick and company are at after a 4-5 start to the season. 

As Lloyd Christmas would put it: "So you're telling me there's a chance."  

Before we jump into the rest of the news and notes surrounding the Patriots from the previous week, here's how you can tune into Sunday's matchup with the Houston Texans on CBS.

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Nov. 22 | Time: 1 p.m. ET 
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX) 
TV: CBS | Stream: CBS All Access
Follow: CBS Sports App

Cam admits COVID was a setback

The Patriots were rolling at a pretty decent clip to begin the 2020 season, starting out with a 2-1 record, but things did fall off track after Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19. While he only ended up missing one game, the former league MVP did miss a noticeable amount of practice time and was clearly out of rhythm after recovering from the virus. 

"Ever since coming back from corona to be honest with you, I felt stagnant in my thought process," Newton told reporters Thursday.

Newton clarified that the virus itself wasn't giving him any physical setbacks, rather the time spent away from working with Josh McDaniels to further learn the Patriots offense was the killer. 

"It's just the fact that I wasn't able to do anything for that stint while I was off and it showed," said Newton. "Coming back, pretty much dry and knowing that as this offense goes, it evolves. When I did come back, I just felt behind. The production here of late is nothing to blame more or less than me just taking ownership and responsibility that I just have to be better."

Over the last few games, however, Newton has seemingly gotten back on track. Over this two-game winning streak, Newton has completed over 76% of his passes for 392 passing yards and one passing touchdown while committing zero turnovers. He's also rushed for 37 yards and three scores over that time. When you compare those numbers to the 63 completion percentage and six turnovers, clearly something is clicking for Newton within Josh McDaniels' offense.  

Larger point to J.C. Jackson Pro Bowl fiasco

I thought CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora did a strong job articulating the underlying factors surrounding Patriots corner J.C. Jackson not initially being on the Pro Bowl ballot earlier this week and co-sign his sentiments. While the Patriots hold firm that this was a simple oversight as they traditionally just place the starters (Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty) of their base defense on the ballot, it does illuminate the very important offseason that awaits Jackson. 

While I personally don't pay much mind to Pro Bowl nods, it is a nice feather in a player's cap when they go for a new contract. With Jackson set to be a restricted free agent this offseason, this fiasco about him being on the Pro Bowl ballot or doesn't really speak to whether or not he's worthy of recognition (he is), but more about how highly he's viewed around the league to cause such a commotion, which bodes well for a future contract.  

The Patriots will likely place a first-round tender on Jackson, who currently leads the league in interceptions, meaning that they will get a first-rounder back if they decide to not match any offer sheet that comes his way. With that security over the restricted free agent, New England won't get burned if Jackson is playing elsewhere in 2021, but this Pro Bowl ballot situation shows that many around the league are keeping an eye on him, which is something to file away for next spring. 

Stephon Gilmore's return

Stephon Gilmore made the trip to Houston on Saturday, signifying that he will make his return to action after missing New England's previous three games due to a knee injury. Gilmore spoke with the media this week and even hinted that he was nearing his return, saying, "I feel pretty good. Just taking it day-by-day. Looking forward to this week. I am just taking it day-by-day and keep preparing like I am going to play this week."

He added: "I wasn't able to play. I wasn't physically ready to play these last couple of weeks. Things happen. You have to adjust to it. Nothing would keep me off the field from playing with my teammates. That's one thing that stuck with me. I am happy that I am progressing, getting better and looking forward to this week."

Adding the reigning Defensive Player of the Year to a secondary that already has emerging corner J.C. Jackson should do wonders for the Patriots as they make a late playoff push. 

Julian Edelman nearing return, but not quite there yet

Julian Edelman is now eligible to come off of injured reserve and there was some thought that the club would activate the former Super Bowl MVP so he could hit the practice field this week. That never came to pass, however, as the veteran receiver is still recouping from a procedure he had on his knee nearly a month ago. By what Cam Newton told WEEI's The Greg Hill Show on Monday, however, Edelman does seem like he's getting close. 

"I can confirm he's getting better," said Newton, as transcribed by WEEI.com "He's doing well. For him to be everything that he is -- and I know he may be listening or he may be having his people listen -- he's good, man."

Once Edelman hits the practice field, the clock will start on his 21-day practice window before needing to be activated onto the active roster or revert back to IR.