Core Values: Coyotes face tough task in keeping pace in Pacific
The Coyotes have the tough task of trying to keep up with some of the league's best teams in the Pacific Division, while also beginning to transition to a younger, sleeker lineup.
By
Chris Peters
•
14 min read
In the salary cap era, where NHL teams have to be efficient with their money, it's important for each club to have a core group of players who set the foundation on which to build the rest of the team. This group often includes the players who consume the bulk of a team's cap space, while also providing the greatest on-ice impact.
With that in mind, Eye on Hockey introduces our summer series: "Core Values." We'll take the rest of summer to evaluate the group of five to seven players who make up the core of each team. Using criteria like point production, average age, how the players were acquired, total cost and cap hit, we'll detail which teams have the strongest cores and which need work. On top of that, we'll also gaze into the future to look at the players who could one day be part of this crucial group for each team.
The newly-rebranded Arizona Coyotes have new owners, but that didn’t lead to the team going crazy with spending this offseason. Arizona just came off its second straight season without a playoff appearance after head coach Dave Tippett had previously led the club to the postseason in three consecutive years, including a trip to the Western Conference Final in 2012.
As a result, the roster doesn’t look a whole lot better than it did last season when the club finished with a 37-30-15 record, missing the playoffs by just two points. Having lost Radim Vrbata could end up hurting more than it’s been given credit for, but the Coyotes actually still have a pretty strong core, with most of it homegrown.
Additionally, bringing in Sam Gagner could be a good risk-reward situation for the Coyotes. If a change of scenery is all Gagner needed to take that next step in his career and become the offensive force he was drafted to be, the Coyotes may have a key offensive performer at the center position.
Though longtime captain Shane Doan, who has been a Coyote for as long as they’ve been the Coyotes, is reaching the twilight of his career, Arizona has a group of young players that it can continue building around for years to come.
The central core has good players at each position and there’s also a prospect pipeline that is improving as well, particularly in its overall depth and variety. That’s starting to set up the Coyotes for better days ahead. They’ll soon have to replace Doan and will probably have to spend a little more money to find veteran help as the youngsters mature, but the pieces in place in Arizona are good ones.
What will complicate things is trying to keep up in the Western Conference arms race. If the Coyotes look over to their division mates in California, they’ll see that they aren’t quite deep enough to match up well consistently.
A lot of Western Conference teams got even better this summer while the Coyotes may have moved in more of a straight line. That’s fine for now as the Coyotes keep building up their young players, but they’re going to need some help when going head-to-head with some of the best the league has to offer.
Core Values: Arizona Coyotes
Players (Age, term remaining on contract): D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23, 5 years), G Mike Smith (32, 5 years), D Keith Yandle (27, 2 years), RW Shane Doan (37, 2 years), C Antoine Vermette (32, 1 year), C Martin Hanzal (27, 3 years), LW Mikkel Boedker (24, 1 year)
Total cap hit in 2014-15: $31,116,667 (45.1% of cap space consumed by seven players)
Average age: 28.8
Total point production in 2013-14: 104 goals, 176 assists, 280 points (47.7% of team’s point production)
About the Core
Oliver Ekman-Larsson: As the Coyotes best all-around player at just age 23, Ekman-Larsson represents both the present and future for the franchise. The Swedish blueliner had his strongest offensive season in 2013-14, hitting career highs in goals (15), assists (29) and points (44). He also put up a career-best eight power-play goals while logging 25:54 per game, also a career high. It wasn’t OEL’s best defensive season, however. He saw his possession numbers dip, but was still seeing top competition mostly. The drop off isn’t terribly concerning considering how the offensive numbers picked up. Additionally, Ekman-Larsson’s age leaves some deserved wiggle room for him to continue maturing as an NHL defenseman. Having lost some scoring from last season, the club is going to need Ekman-Larsson’s offensive numbers to stay up. He’ll be on the ice more than any other player and can impact the game in a variety of ways. With five years remaining on his contract, the best may be yet to come for this gifted defenseman. How he was acquired: 2009 NHL Entry Draft, first round, sixth overall
Mike Smith: It was hardly surprising to see Mike Smith’s numbers fall off from the career year he posted in his first season with the Coyotes in 2011-12. That said, the goaltender remains vital to the Coyotes and as the team’s highest paid player, he’ll be expected to deliver. In 2013-14, Smith’s numbers rebounded slightly from a disappointing 2012-13. He had a .915 save percentage, slightly above the league average, and compiled a 27-21-10 record with a 2.64 goals-against average. With five years remaining on his contract at a $5.66 million cap hit, Smith has to be strong in net, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Smith really has only been a primary starter for three seasons. Replicating his 2011-12 run, in which he posted a .930 save percentage, would seem out of the question. If he can build up the save percentage a bit more from his .914 career average, the Coyotes have a really good chance at making some noise this year. As many goalies begin regressing in their mid-30s, Smith’s contract may grow heavier in the coming years, but there’s still time for the team to get some good value for their dollar. How he was acquired: Signed as an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2011
Keith Yandle: Let’s play a quick game of “Did you know?” Did you know Keith Yandle led the Coyotes with 53 points last season? Did you know that since his first full-time season in the NHL in 2008-09, only three defensemen have more points than Yandle? Did you know that over the last four years only two defensemen have more points than Yandle and one of them played part of that stretch as a forward? You may not have. In fact, there seems to be quite a bit hockey fans don’t know about Keith Yandle. Not often viewed as one of the top offensive defensemen in the game, Yandle’s career numbers suggest he belongs in the conversation and he probably should have gotten a longer look for the U.S. Olympic team. Over parts of eight season, Yandle has compiled 270 points including 209 assists. He has finished with no fewer than 0.60 points per game in three of the last four seasons. Last year, Yandle smashed his career high with 241 shots on goal, but had just a 3.3 percent shooting percentage. Often criticized for his ability to defend, Yandle has almost always posted strong possession numbers and did so again last year without getting overly favorable zone starts. He even blocked over 100 shots last year. Seemingly part of more and more trade rumors of late, the Coyotes would do well to hang onto Yandle after his remaining two years on his contract are up. He’s only 27 years old and has 488 NHL games. With tremendous vision and distribution skills, Yandle is a weapon and should continue to be for years to come for Arizona. How he was acquired: 2005 NHL Entry Draft, fourth round, 105th overall
Shane Doan: Perhaps a lot of players in Doan’s position would have left town years ago, but the veteran forward has seen it all as a member of the Coyotes. In fact, he started out with the team when they were the Winnipeg Jets. So he’s survived a relocation, numerous owners, constant relocation rumors and last year, a bout with Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. Doan missed 13 games with the bizarre ailment, but still managed to put together a strong season with 23 goals and 47 points. At age 37, Doan may not be in his prime, but he certainly hasn’t shown dramatic regression. Last season, he posted 0.68 points per game and if he didn’t have to miss as much time as he did, perhaps the Coyotes sneak into the playoffs. Doan has just two years remaining on his contract. Anything could happen after that, but Doan still has some good years left in him before he has to pass the torch in the organization. How he was acquired: 1995 NHL Entry Draft, first round, seventh overall
Antoine Vermette: Coming off one of the better seasons of his career, Vermette has been an important forward for the Coyotes over the last few years. With 24 goals, Vermette had his best scoring season since 2009-10 when he was still a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s probably Vermette’s defensive value that makes him such an important piece of Dave Tippett’s system. Also, considering his defensive usage this season, his offensive output becomes all the more impressive. His possession numbers were below average, but you also have to consider the quality of competition and the majority of zone starts coming in the defensive zone. No forward saw the ice more, on a per-game average, than Vermette. With just one year remaining on his deal, you have to wonder if an extension is in order. He seems to be a pretty good fit for what Tippett needs him to be. How he was acquired: Traded from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Curtis McElhinney, a second- and fourth-round pick on February 22, 2012
Martin Hanzal: One of only three forwards under contract beyond the 2015-16 season, Hanzal has been a pretty reliable two-way player for the Coyotes over his career. Though more offense was probably expected from Hanzal, he has 222 points in 456 career games. Last season, he posted a career year with 40 points including 15 goals. Hanzal has seen his usage fluctuate over the years, but last year, it skewed more defensive. He has often been one of the better possession players on the team over his seven years. Last year was the first time he posted a negative relative Corsi for percentage at -0.7. With three years remaining on his deal, Hanzal is affordable and effective. If he can build off of last season, Hanzal will remain an important player for the Coyotes at both ends of the ice. How he was acquired: 2005 NHL Entry Draft, first round, 17th overall
Mikkel Boedker: Coyotes fans probably looked at Boedker’s stat line from last year and exclaimed, "Finally!" After a bit of a roller coaster to the start of his career, the first-round pick had his best year as an NHLer by far in 2013-14. There were signs the breakout was coming in 2012-13, too, but Boedkker really made a statement last season. He posted career highs in goals (19), assists (32) and points (51) to finish the season among the team’s leaders. The Danish forward now has 146 career points in 338 career games. Last year may have been a sink-or-swim season for him, too, and by increasing his career point total by 35 percent in one season, it’s safe to say he chose to swim. He has just one year left on his current contract before becoming a restricted free agent. Another big season could lead to an extension with the opportunity to get the Coyotes to buy some of his UFA years and increase the annual value of his deal. Boedkker has to build off of last year to make that happen though and show that his career has indeed turned a corner. How he was acquired: 2008 NHL Entry Draft, first round, eighth overall
Who’s next in line
The biggest move the Coyotes made in the offseason was to go out and get Sam Gagner in a trade. They worked a deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning after Tampa acquired Gagner’s rights from the Oilers. Now Gagner has a chance to start fresh after years of immense pressure to perform in Edmonton.
Though Gagner has 295 career points in 481 games, he struggled to find consistency in Edmonton’s young lineup. Now surrounded by veterans, Gagner has a chance to play a huge role on the Coyotes and be a focal point of the offense. The 25-year-old has two years remaining on his contract before being eligible to hit unrestricted free agency. A good performance this year could lead to an extension from the Coyotes by next summer.
The Coyotes must also have high hopes for former first-round pick Max Domi. It is expected that Domi will be given every opportunity to make the opening-night roster. After Domi completed his third season with the London Knights, expectations will be huge on the 19-year-old. He had 93 points last season and probably gains very little by going back to junior for another year. He may not be an immediate impact player, but his skill level suggests he can contribute quickly.
Brandon Gormley is also a big-time prospect for for the Coyotes as well. He’s widely considered as one of the better defensive prospects not yet in the NHL. He got five NHL games with the Coyotes last season, but the former 13th overall pick is likely going to see a full-time role with the team this year. Gormley had 36 points in 54 AHL games last season and has good two-way capabilities.
At the NHL level, Michael Stone played pretty well in 70 games. He’s just 24 years old and already has 123 NHL games under his belt. He saw his usage increase last year, which is a good sign for his development. Additionally, Connor Murphy did well in his first taste of the NHL with 30 appearances. He has a chance to be a strong shut-down defender over the next few years, but Murphy also managed eight points in those 30 games while averaging nearly 18 minutes per game.
The club may also have room to bring in Lucas Lessio after his remarkable season with the Portland Pirates in the AHL last season. he had 29 goals and 54 points in 69 games last season. With blinding speed and a high skill level, Lessio has future top-six written all over him. Could that start next season?
Among the other prospects the Coyotes could be looking forward to seeing soon are most recent first-round pick Brendan Perlini, who will likely head back to junior this season. Recent draftees Anton Karlsson, Henrik Samuelsson and Laurent Dauphin could soon start pushing for NHL spots as well.
The club will also hope for improvement from Mark Visentin, who did not have a great run in the AHL last year. The former first-round pick had a .902 save percentage in 45 appearances with the Pirates, but at 22, he still has some time to pull things together.
Overview
The Coyotes have a group that is going to give plenty of opponents trouble this year. How much they’re able to keep up with their Pacific Division mates is tough to say. The addition of Gagner was the most significant the club was able to make this offseason and that may not be enough.
It will also be interesting to see how the younger players like Domi, Lessio and Gormley fare given more of an opportunity to play a role on the NHL team. If they can make that jump quickly, there’s a chance the Coyotes can put together a more potent offense.
Having a defensive group led by Ekman-Larsson and Yandle, with veteran Zbynek Michalek also logging significant minutes is going to give the Coyotes a chance in the rough-and-tumble West.
The forward group is going to be really interesting to watch. The team was in the lower third of the league when it came to goals-per-game and they’ve never been a truly great scoring team. The additions of Gagner and possibly Domi could help offset the loss of Radim Vrbata in particular, but that’s quite a task.
The Coyotes also have to hope that Martin Erat has figured out whatever has ailed him offensively after the veteran scored just three goals in 70 games last year. A bounceback from him in Arizona could go a long way in creating some much needed scoring depth.
A lot of the team’s success could hinge on Mike Smith. His best season coincided with one of the franchise’s best years to date in 2011-12. He probably won’t be able to replicate that again, but if Smith stays healthy, he can have a big impact on the team’s success in the tough Pacific Division.
There may not be a lot of room for patience in the desert when it comes to this team, but it seems like the Coyotes are heading in a positive direction organizationally. The replenished youth system and solid veteran base is all there. The team lacks that bona fide star scorer still, but perhaps one of their prospects has that kind of potential in him.
There are enough pieces in place for the Coyotes to put together a playoff run, but they’ll need some breaks along the way. They have good coaching, stability in ownership and a solid roster. They just need to make sure they can put it all together and give people a reason to show up to their building this season.
